Blackcaps vs India Test Series Preview
Ahead of Aotearoa Blackcaps Test series in India, much of the focus has been around the margins. This is where folks wonder who will open alongside Tom Latham or how many spinners will play and thus what the balance of the team could look like. For the Blackcaps to spark up this World Test Championship cycle with some kind of success though, the best lads will need to do the bulk of the mahi and the Blackcaps will need to once again unleash their cricketing nous as a weapon.
Aotearoa has four high quality batsmen who now form the core of the run-scoring labour force. BJ Watling bolstered this unit up until his retirement and he will be replaced by Tom Blundell, which increases pressure on Williamson, Latham, Leturu Taylor and Henry Nicholls. Whether you're sniffing around Latham's opening partner or which bowler offers the best batting support; you're missing the point of winning in India.
Nothing lovely will happen without runs from the slick quartet. When Aotearoa won the 2018 Test series vs Pakistan in United Arab Emirates, Williamson led all run-scorers (77.20avg) and Nicholls was third (57.40avg). Aotearoa started their WTC campaign with a 2019 Test series draw in Sri Lanka and it was Latham who was second in runs for both teams (76.33avg), while Watling was a smidge behind Latham (91.50avg). Watling was also solid against Pakistan (34.80avg) and all of this is in tune with Aotearoa's leading run-scorers since January 1st 2015...
Williamson: 4,507 runs @ 65.31avg.
Latham: 3,413 runs @ 41.12avg.
Taylor: 2,968 runs @ 45.66avg.
Watling: 2,365 runs @ 39.41avg.
Nicholls: 2,264 runs @ 42.71avg.
They are the only batsmen who have scored over 2,000 runs in this period and Watling's gone, leaving the quartet to lead the way. Also important here is experience in foreign conditions and while WTC success diminished this idea a bit, Aotearoa cricket has been under a veil of illusion with wins and stats boosted by plenty of cricket in home conditions. This quartet though, they have all had reps in 'Asian' conditions...
Latham in Asia: 11 Tests - 40.20avg.
Williamson in Asia: 19 Tests - 46.81avg.
Taylor in Asia: 24 Tests - 32.88avg.
Nicholls in Asia: 6 Tests - 39.50avg.
Part of this equation is batting against spin in spin friendly conditions. As a chill kiwi, I view Williamson as the best batsman in the world and we know he has the tools to battle against spin bowling. We have plenty of mental imagery featuring sweep shots from Latham and Nicholls as well, plus quick feet to get to the pitch of deliveries. I can't draw the same clarity with Taylor's batting, although this points to Taylor's excellence as he has the ability to bully bowlers in any conditions and over the course of 108 Tests, Taylor has shown aggressive instincts in all conditions against any type of bowler.
This is also an intriguing juncture for the quartet. All four could play through to the end of this WTC cycle with Taylor doing his best Tom Brady impersonation and I personally hope to see Taylor succeed over the next few years. That starts with a solid series in India and if Taylor can take good vibes away from India, it will set up this cycle of Test cricket nicely. Williamson, Latham and Nicholls are settling into their mature years with more importance placed on their batting as they all become the leaders of this group. This Test series is the challenge that ideally brings out the best of the quartet.
One low key thing with that quartet will be their grit. Aotearoa doesn't need to win this Test series as an escape with two draws will be a decent result. I am almost certain that while the team will hunt for wins and always should do so, the need to fight hard for a draw will arise at some point. Whether the team is up shit's creek batting in the third innings or toiling hard while batting last, the senior batsmen will need to lead the salvage mission.
To win Tests, Aotearoa obviously needs to take 20 wickets. To escape with a drawn series, Aotearoa needs to be good enough with the ball; can the Blackcaps keep India's scores between 300-400 and not over 500?
Everyone's chatting about the spinners and fair play. I don't really care who takes the wickets or ties up India's batsmen and Aotearoa at least has variety in all their bowlers to throw some doosras into the equation. One thing to ponder here is the idea of doing what India want Aotearoa to do (ample spinners) or Aotearoa getting funky in how they challenge India. We know that Aotearoa has a set of intangibles that has been a point of difference to the rest of the cricketing world; great fielding, crafty plans and fielding lay-outs, finding reverse swing etc.
Spin bowling will be important. What Aotearoa get from their seamers will be just as important and the bloke who comes to mind here is Neil Wagner. We've all seen a lot of Wagner and kiwi cricket fans know that Wagner's found reverse swing as well as regular swing to go with his bouncer barrage. Wagner's skills have consistently been on display and we all know about Wagner's mana, his ability to steam in regardless of how bung his toe is or how steamy conditions are. I reckon Wagner is a caged savage right now, having taken a break from cricket and with a hefty challenge in front of him.
Whether Wagner plays or not, I don't know. Wagner is the type of bowler and character who I'd want in my team for this challenge.
As for the spinners, it's all rather confusing. I'm a keen observer of Aotearoa's spin landscape and a minor update is that the only things I know for sure are that Ish Sodhi is the best T20 Blackcaps spinner - that's low key important with another T20 World Cup around the corner. Also that Todd Astle's two T20 World Cup games featured 1ov @ 9rpo, 1ov @ 11rpo and then 3ov @ 11.33rpo in one appearance vs India. Three games in UAE/India, no wickets and lots or runs against.
That organises some white-ball spin bowling stuff. Sodhi's a leading T20I spinner, Astle will probably struggle to crack next year's World Cup squad in Australia. Mitchell Santner averages 45.63 in Test cricket and four Tests in Asia have resulted in 10w @ 59.30avg, now he's coming of a T20 World Cup in which he took 2w @ 74.50avg.
We all know the Santner Test cricket vibe. He looks beautiful with bat and ball, but hasn't had production to match appearances. In Tauranga last summer, Santner contributed to a Blackcaps win over Pakistan with great fielding and good enough bowling in Aotearoa's most spinny conditions. Santner's ability to impact a game feels good, although very few kiwi cricket fans will be celebrating Santner as a key figure for this Test series.
Rachin Ravindra is a good young cricketer being eased into Blackcaps environments. Like any young lad, Ravindra has had exciting moments in domestic and international cricket as well as tougher patches. There isn't anything here to suggest that Ravindra should be selected ahead of Santner and while he's a fine back up/emergency option, Ravindra will benefit greatly from being part of this tour. It's about the long game with Ravindra.
Ajaz Patel and Will Somerville appear to be the two main spinners. Both were leading figures in UAE and Sri Lanka, however their recent mahi in Aotearoa doesn't exactly scream out 'pick me for India!'. You would have seen and heard how these two haven't played much cricket recently, which is half the story as neither has been dominant in Plunket Shield over the past two seasons. They both have a solid season and a 'wtf' season since returning from Sri Lanka...
Will Somerville
2018/19 UAE: 7w @ 18.14avg.
2019 Sri Lanka: 7w @ 32.14avg.
2019/20: 2w @ 63.50avg.
2020/21: 16w @ 37.423avg.
Ajaz Patel
2018/19 UAE: 13w @ 29.61avg.
2019 Sri Lanka: 9w @ 26.88avg.
2019/20: 17w @ 38.64avg.
2020/21: 2w @ 90.50avg.
Patel's battled injury and Somerville has battled the arrival of Louis Delport as Auckland's leading spinner during this period. They are however selected based on their Test mahi in spinny conditions and as they both helped Aotearoa win Tests overseas, with a series win in UAE and a series draw in Sri Lanka, that holds a fair amount of selection mana.
It's confusing though. They enter this series without much longform cricket played recently, while their previous two summers have been among the worst of their First-Class careers. They have equity with Blackcaps leadership and selectors to counter that. Three of these four spinners are lefties as well, so playing more than two spinners will mean much of the same for India's batsmen.
This spinning unit doesn't feel dangerous, yet they might not need to be. Blackcaps success has come through their team culture, craft and nous. It's unrealistic to expect Aotearoa's spinners to be better than India's spinners in India and if they can hold the fort, executing their specific roles for the team, then Aotearoa can dip into their bag of tricks to make the contest tighter. That bag of tricks includes four legit Test batsmen, a hearty team culture, creative plans and the absence of terrible performances.
As we have seen in every format, Aotearoa's Blackcaps can level out any contest through intangibles. Winning the series will require near-perfection. In the context of WTC, this team doesn't need to win the series and a drawn series will be a positive result. Glorious Aotearoa grit and creativity could make that drawn series a lot more likely than many would believe.
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Peace and love.