Blackcaps Tour Of England: World Test Championship Final Preview

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Having dismantled England on their home turf, we now have a World Test Championship final between the greatest cricketing nation in the world (India) and the best sporting nation in the world (Aotearoa). One nation pulls from a population of 1 billion and generally runs international cricket as they please, while the other competes at the highest level of many different sports with a population of just under 5 million.

Before getting into the nitty gritty of this WTC Final, take a moment to bask in Aotearoa's glory. This goes beyond sport as we have Lorde reppin' Aotearoa as a genuine top-five pop superstar, Taika Waititi is a creative wizard working on the international stage and I'm sure you can think of other kiwi creatives who are operating at a world-class level. Whether it's Steven Adams and Sean Marks working in the NBA, Lydia Ko in the LPGA, Israel Adesanya in the UFC, Chris Wood scoring Premier League goals and leading a hefty group of Flying Kiwis and all the other kiwi teams and athletes who all compete among the world's best; Aotearoa is the best sports and creative nation in the world.

The Blackcaps? Well they've made the last two World Cup finals and have added another final to their tally. Sometimes kiwis aren't so grateful, aren't so aware that the mere presence of kiwi teams and athletes at this type of level is bonkers and so we tend to get caught up in the losses. In a cricket context, this Blackcaps group has set up shop among the cricketing elite and as other cricketing nations enjoy their ample resources, the Blackcaps compete with a teeny-weeny fraction of those resources. Apply those ideas to the sport you love, then another sport and you'll find that Aotearoa sports routinely out-performs common logic.

However this WTC final plays out, it's a minor miracle that little ol' Aotearoa is going toe-to-toe with India.

With the Blackcaps squad tightened down to 15 players, there is only one area of debate for the playing 11 and if you're reading this then you've probably done the mahi in sussing out how you want that all-rounder/spin slot filled. Personally, I love spin bowling and any Blackcaps team without a proper spinner makes me cringe even though the Blackcaps have comfortably won these type of Tests in Aotearoa.

It's kinda crazy that we are in this position pondering between Ajaz Patel and Colin de Grandhomme. While both have enjoyed decent stints in the Test team, prior to the series vs England these two hadn't played Test cricket since February 2020. They battled niggles last summer and were hardly commanding selection with their domestic cricket performances; Patel watched Mitchell Santner wiggle his way back into the top spin spot, de Grandhomme saw Daryl Mitchell cruise into Test cricket. Santner and Mitchell are not in this WTC final squad.

De Grandhomme's return at Lord's was the third Test of his 25-Test career without a wicket. It was his first without a wicket after 15 consecutive Tests with a wicket. Patel has played nine Tests and his three Tests in Aotearoa have resulted in zero wickets, while Patel has taken 26 wickets across England, Sri Lanka and United Arab Emirates. Patel took 4w in that Test win last week and like you, I've been picking up on bits and bobs that suggest spin may be important at Southampton's Ageas Bowl.

Much of those yarns centre around historical Test cricket at that ground, while County Championship cricket with Southampton's Hampshire this season suggests a different threat. Hampshire have played four games at this ground and in only one game has a spinner from either Hampshire or their opponent taken 3+ wickets. When Hampshire played England spinner Jack Leach he didn't need to bowl in Somerset's first innings because their seamers did the mahi, then Leach bowled 22 overs @ 1.54rpo without a wicket.

Hampshire have twice dismissed an opponent for less than 100 in home games. The first saw Pakistan's nibbler Mohammad Abbas take 6 wickets, the second saw South African seamer Kyle Abbott take 6 wickets. These are international seamers who have thoroughly enjoyed the Ageas Bowl conditions and they have bowled in 14 innings combined (seven each), going wicketless in just three of those innings. 47 County bowlers have taken at least 18 wickets, three of which are from Hampshire and all three are seamers...

Abbott: 5th - 35w @ 21.91avg/3.33rpo.

Abbas: 12th - 27w @ 15.96avg/2.11rpo.

Brad Wheal: 47th - 18w @ 29.38avg/3.30rpo.

England is turning on the English weather for this Test with rain and temperatures below 20 degrees on the radar. The Hampshire stuff and the weather forecasted has me wondering if this will be far more seam friendly than folks may think. In the context of the Patel vs CDG yarn, this could bump things towards our favourite Zimbabwean. Again, I prefer the funk of spin bowling and I'm also immensely comfortable in the presence of Aotearoa's best seamers ever taking on the responsibility.

Tim Southee, Trent Boult and Neil Wagner are in my Aotearoa bowling top-five. Seven bowlers from Aotearoa have 200+ Test wickets and these three are right there, all three have 200+ wickets with averages below 30. Kyle Jamieson is as good an x-factor/wildcard seamer as that trio has worked alongside and if I were to present a Blackcaps team with the four best seamers available right now - it's those four.

The batsmen? Ross Taylor, Kane Williamson and Tom Latham are in my Aotearoa batting top-five. Nine batsmen have scored 4000+ Test runs and these three are right there, all with averages over 40. Only five of these nine batsmen have averages over 40 with the other two being Stephen Fleming and Martin Crowe. Best wicket-keeper batsman ever? I reckon BJ Watling's been so good than many would try to fit him and Brendan McCullum into an all-time 1st 11.

Henry Nicholls isn't cut from that cloth though, right? Nicholls averages 43.40 in Test cricket. That's slightly better than Latham and Nicholls' average currently ranks 8th all-time for Aotearoa. Nicholls bats #5 in the line up and most would have Nicholls behind Taylor, Williamson, Latham and Watling as their best Blackcaps batsmen; not too shabby for the 5th ranked bloke.

Devon Conway hit 200 on Test debut after dominating every level-up he's gone through. Conway averages 44+ in the three formats outside international cricket and 59+ in the three international formats. This feels similar to Jamieson’s addition to Aotearoa's best seaming group ever as we've added Conway to a batting line up featuring Aotearoa's best Test batsmen ever.

If someone asked me to select Aotearoa's six best Test batsmen available right now, it's those six mentioned above.

If someone asked me to select Aotearoa's four best Test seamers available right now, it's the four mentioned above.

That leaves one spot open, the spot that will have you debating with your homies for another day or two. Regardless of what happens in that spot, this Blackcaps Test team enters a WTC final with the best six batsmen and four seamers on offer. Some, if not most of them sit among the best cricketers to ever play Test cricket for Aotearoa and simply having them in the team gives Aotearoa a crack at WTC glory.

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