Blackcaps vs India ODI Series Preview
After making the semi-finals of their third consecutive T20 World Cup, Aotearoa's Blackcaps now face India in Super League ODIs. We last saw Blackcaps play ODI cricket against Australia and that series was all about festering softness as the kiwis were swept 0-3.
Aotearoa are sixth in the World Cup Super League with the top seven teams qualifying for the 2023 World Cup, as well as hosts India. India are first on the Super League ladder and as they are likely to stay in the upper echelon, Aotearoa must finish in the top eight to seal automatic qualification.
With a 11-4 record after 15 games, Aotearoa sits behind a group of four nations who have 12 wins after 18 games. India has a 13-5 record from 18 games and Aotearoa could wiggle their way up this ladder with a couple wins. Winning games against India won't be easy though and Aotearoa then heads to Pakistan for three ODIs as part of the Super League, before hosting Sri Lanka.
Blackcaps are delicately poised in ODI cricket and a blown series against India will amplify an already tricky tour of Pakistan. Looming in the background is that series sweep in Australia where Aotearoa rolled out a full strength ODI outfit. Now the Blackcaps are trying to grab multiple wins against a dynamic Indian team, with a squad that feels somewhat lacklustre.
Finn Allen is likely to open alongside Devon Conway, leading into a batting unit featuring Kane Williamson, Tom Latham, Daryl Mitchell and Glenn Phillips. Michael Bracewell and Jimmy Neesham offer all-round skills. Tim Southee, Matt Henry, Lockie Ferguson and Adam Milne make up the seam bowlers, with Mitchell Santner playing the lead spinner role.
How Allen crafts his ODI innings will be crucial to Blackcaps success. Allen has already established himself as Aotearoa's best slugger and he developed his ODI craft this year, playing eight ODIs across the European and West Indies tours. Allen also grabbed a game against Australia after that series was already lost.
Allen could be effective with his boundary-hitting, although knocks where Allen endures adversity and builds an innings will provide the most insight. There is plenty of batting support around Allen and this includes powerful hitters in Mitchell, Phillips and Neesham as well as grit with Latham's return.
Latham and Henry have been dominant in Plunket Shield to start this summer, they are also Aotearoa's best players in the Super League who are in this Blackcaps squad. Latham has the most runs (541 runs @ 49.18avg) and Henry is tied with Trent Boult for the most wickets (23w @ 18.3avg/4.5rpo).
The biggest issue for Aotearoa is taking wickets and this may be aided by wet conditions around Aotearoa. More swing and seam always helps kiwi bowlers, especially when deploying a bowling unit full of right-arm seamers. Aotearoa struggled for wickets against Australia and this is part of a wider trend for Blackcaps bowlers in ODIs.
Lockie Ferguson is in his worst year of ODI bowling. Ferguson averaged 20.63 in 2018 and then 23.71 in 2019 as part of the World Cup run, now averaging 54 after seven games this year. Ferguson took 3w @ 38.66avg in 19 overs against Australia and after three consecutive years conceding less than 6rpo, Ferguson is now in his second year conceding more than 6rpo.
Mitchell Santner took 2w @ 60.5avg against Australia and in his eight year career, Santner has averaged 40+ in four years. Santner has only dipped below 30avg in two years and in 31 games since the start of 2019, Santner has taken 3+ wickets twice. Santner has taken 2+ wickets once in his last seven games and if Santner isn't taking wickets, he needs to be extra economical. Santner also averages 56.70 against India and 35 in Aotearoa.
2022 is Tim Southee's first year of ODI bowling with an average below 30 since 2010. Southee's 9w @ 22.66avg this year stems from the West Indies tour and he offered 2w @ 48avg against Australia. Southee has averaged 40+ in three of the past five years and fell out of the ODI 1st 11, which sets up obvious intrigue as to how Southee performs against India.
Adam Milne last played an ODI in 2017 and in his six years of ODI cricket (2012-17), Milne never averaged below 30. Selecting both Ferguson and Milne may feel funky because they both bowl fast. Instead this feels rather tame considering Ferguson's dip in form, Milne's sporadic availability and they are both hovering around 5.5rpo in ODIs.
Stack Bracewell's spin on top of these bowlers. Bracewell has taken his T20I opportunities and generated buzz for his spinning mahi in the tri-series prior to the T20WC, although he hasn't found a consistent groove in ODIs. Bracewell has wickets against Netherlands, Scotland and Ireland, but didn't take a wicket in 17ov against West Indies and conceded 5.7rpo. This led to minimal mahi against Australia with his 6ov going for 6.16rpo.
All of which amounts to a lacklustre bowling vibe and this was already brewing in that series against Australia. Even if conditions favour the swing and seam of Aotearoa, do Santner and Bracewell conjure fear in the Indian batters? Ferguson is battling form adversity and Milne enjoys selection once again despite not really doing much.
Aotearoa needs to win Super League games, while India have a decent case for being the best ODI team in the world. Local conditions and buckets of rain may twist this in Aotearoa's favour, although many of these Blackcaps are not playing their best cricket. Blackcaps softness crept into their Test and ODI antics over the past year which sets up this series as a fascinating juncture.
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