Blackcaps vs Pakistan Test Series Preview
Another kiwi summer is swinging around to catch our outside edge and kiwi summers mean Blackcaps cricket ... in Pakistan. Blackcaps embark on their Test series in Pakistan with a new Test captain and a slightly different squad than previous excursions. Considering that Aotearoa is 2-6-1 in the World Test Championship and Bangladesh is the only team below Aotearoa on the WTC ladder, slightly different vibes are welcome.
Aotearoa has lost Tests to India, Bangladesh, South Africa and England in this WTC cycle. All those losses feature margins of at least 5 wickets or 100+ runs, meaning they aren't tight losses. Blackcaps lost consecutive games to India and Bangladesh, now they enter Pakistan after four consecutive losses. The only wins for Aotearoa have come when they bat first, jack up lots of runs and everything goes according to plan. A whiff to adversity and the Blackcaps have crumbled.
This is the reality of Blackcaps Test cricket right now. To assess this Test tour, I'm taking a dose of Aotearoa Warriors vitamins to release expectations and work with this reality. As much as next season feels different for Warriors, Niche Cache coverage revolves around zero expectations; local media love to whip up fantasy expectations, then do big investigations when those expectations aren't met.
The Blackcaps Test team are in that zone. WTC glory has zoomed past us and since that final, the only constant has been change. Luteru Taylor, BJ Watling and Colin de Grandhomme retired, while Trent Boult dipped out of the mixer and Kyle Jamieson is battling injury once again. Five players from the team that played the WTC final are not in this squad, almost half the team.
Boult and Jamieson are also second and third respectively for Blackcaps wickets in this WTC cycle. Skipper Southee has 33w @ 36.33avg, while Boult has 25w @ 25.48avg and Jamieson has 26w @ 28.8avg. Stack the absence of two top-notch seamers on top of a losing Test team for another reminder to ease up on Blackcaps expectations.
The biggest change was of course the most recent one, with Williamson opting to step aside as Test skipper. Williamson has only played two Tests in the current cycle, scoring 138 runs @ 23avg. 2022 is the first year since 2010 in which Williamson has played less than four Tests. This is also the first year since 2011 in which Williamson hasn't scored a Test century which leads to his worst yearly batting average of his career.
Something wasn't working with the Test team over the past year, perhaps things got stale. This is also evident in Williamson's mahi. He didn't want be Test skipper anymore and in shifting to Southee, someone Williamson has played cricket with since they were teenagers, this feels more like a refresh rather than a drastic change.
Tom Latham had plugged a captaincy hole for the Test team and many assumed that this would lead to him being the certified Test skipper at some point. Stats like Latham's batting average going from 31.07 as skipper to 41.88 when he's not captain, can be deployed here. Maybe Latham didn't want the job? Maybe the similarities between Latham and Williamson won't refresh anything?
Southee has earned this position. While Boult played when he wanted prior to being released from his NZC contract, Southee played more and more cricket for Aotearoa. Southee has settled as an all-format Blackcap in recent years after falling out of the ODI 1st 11 around the 2019 World Cup. 2022 was his second best year of ODI bowling. Southee's second and third best years of T20I bowling are his last two, while two of his top-three years of Test bowling are 2020 and 2021.
Folks may view Southee as a joker, perhaps even aloof. Whether it's the memories of him loitering around Daniel Vettori early in his career, or his mana in grinding to improve his game; Southee loves cricket and he loves playing for Aotearoa.
We will all be observing the differences in Blackcaps cricket under Southee compared to Williamson. Copying another nation and moving away from kiwi ideals in turangawaewae and mana won't work though, plus Blackcaps were always willing to push the game along with Williamson as captain. These changes are more likely to be aligned with a refresh, rather than a monumental shift in the Blackcaps approach.
The selections for this tour freshen up the squad as well. Glenn Phillips joins the batting unit where he will compete for a middle order slot with Daryl Mitchell, Henry Nicholls and Michael Bracewell. Mitchell and Tom Blundell are the leading run-scorers for Aotearoa in this WTC cycle, which will likely ensure Mitchell's selection at five. Bracewell offers spin bowling as a boost for his selection case, although he averages 49 with the ball in First-Class cricket and 57 after two Tests.
Don't view Phillips or Ish Sodhi as T20 cricketers getting a crack at Test cricket. Phillips has already bagged a Test half-century on debut in Australia and his FC batting average is in the same 39-41 pocket as Will Young, Mitchell and Nicholls. Phillips is one of the best batters in Aotearoa and deserves his selection as a longform cricketer.
Sodhi's FC average is 33.72, slightly higher than Ajaz Patel's 32.37. Of notable kiwi spinners, these two are top-three for FC averages and Will Somerville is the only notable kiwi spinner averaging below 30 in FC cricket. Somerville is consistently solid in all formats for Auckland, yet his tour of India last year saw him take no wickets in two Tests. Somerville took 14w in his first three Tests, then 1w in his last three Tests.
Assessing kiwi spinners revolves around vibe. Each spinner's stats can be twisted in their favour, or against each other. Each of these spinners has had dominant kiwi summers followed but mediocre mahi. Given that recent Blackcaps Test spinners such as Bracewell, Rachin Ravindra and Mitchell Santner have Test and FC bowling averages over 40, rolling with the best spinners feels kinda fresh.
One is a lefty finger spinner, the other is a leggy. Patel is shorter, Sodhi is taller. Both have variations and both have played 10 years of FC cricket.
Take this into the seam department where the Blackcaps have two nibblers in Southee and Matt Henry, along with two bullies in Neil Wagner and Blair Tickner. Tickner was selected ahead of Jacob Duffy who is bagging wickets in domestic cricket. For Pakistan conditions, having an extra bully will probably be more useful than Duffy's swing/seam.
At the very least, this Blackcaps squad is well equipped for Test cricket in Pakistan. The kiwis are also equipped with a prescription for freshness with a new captain and some selections that skew towards attacking instincts rather than mellow defence. As fans, we are equipped with a realistic perspective of the Blackcaps Test team and after waves of change swept through this group over the past year, curiosity may be the best viewing platform.
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Peace and love.