Aotearoa Blackcaps vs England Second Test Preview
England snared their first Test win over Aotearoa since 2015 to start the tour and snatched away any slither of World Test Championship hope in the process. The second Test starts tomorrow evening and Aotearoa now have a chance to do what they have done fairly well under Kane Williamson in bouncing back.
While Aotearoa did enjoy a seven-Test undefeated streak against England, Lord's seems to be a niggly location for the kiwis. That win back in 2015 came at Lord's, then these two teams played out a draw at Lord's last year and England's only wins over Aotearoa in this period have come at Lord's. When England won at Lord's in 2015, Aotearoa won the second Test by 199 runs and last year's tour saw Aotearoa seal an 8-wicket win after the drawn Lord's Test.
Aotearoa has found a way to come back from pesky first Test results against England and they are also in a volatile patch of results for this WTC cycle. The tour of India had a draw and a loss, before Bangladesh's win in Aotearoa was followed by a big Blackcaps win. Aotearoa then had another big win over South Africa before losing the second Test. The Blackcaps aren't inconsistent but are clearly struggling to churn out strong performances as they had back to back losses (India, Bangladesh), then back to back wins over Bangladesh and SA, now enjoying their second loss in a row (SA, England).
This suggests a Blackcaps win in Nottingham, although far better cricket will need to be played. Aotearoa success is built upon one big innings with the bat in this WTC cycle and while we enjoy dominant Blackcaps batting mahi, the fact that they have only won Tests in which they bat once suggests they are not a reliable batting unit. Aotearoa has played seven Tests in the WTC and when batting twice, they have lost four and drawn one Test.
Test cricket is usually about batting twice with an ideal scenario being to bat once. Ideal scenarios are not the status-quo and while the batting unit is clearly talented (still the best top-four I've experienced for Aotearoa) this was a major weakness in the first Test. Tom Latham, Will Young, Kane Williamson and Devon Conway combined for 7 runs in the first innings, before Williamson led the top-four with 15 runs in their second effort.
The return of Henry Nicholls and absence of Colin de Grandhomme could see Nicholls join Daryl Mitchell in the middle order, ahead of Tom Blundell which strengthens the batting line up. Mitchell and Blundell were Aotearoa's best batters in the first Test, which points to the lack of gritty mahi from the top-order. Against seamers like James Anderson and Stuart Broad, in England, with Duke balls, Aotearoa need to at least not lose early wickets and hopefully one or two top-four batters can jack up a score.
Aotearoa will also need to figure out their best bowling unit for Nottingham conditions, which may be the four-headed seam attack of Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Kyle Jamieson and Neil Wagner. The Ajaz Patel situation was already confusing prior to this Test as he struggled in the domestic summer after Mumbai magic, but then found warm up game wickets in England; massive high in Mumbai, basically invisible in Aotearoa, shows good signs in England and then bowls 2 overs @ 11rpo at Lord's.
Patel's bowling mahi feels more volatile than Blackcaps Test results. Much of this isn't within Patel's control as selection favours seamers in Aotearoa, Patel battled injuries over the summer and while Williamson's second only to Luteru Taylor as a legend; Williamson does some weird stuff with spinners.
The 1st 11 simply looks better with Patel in the mix, providing more options to take wickets. Patel could play alongside the four seamers, with Nicholls or Mitchell missing out. Patel could play ahead of a seamer, or Patel doesn't play. However that winds up, Neil Wagner should return and maybe his mana can provide a boost for Aotearoa.
Aotearoa are suddenly one spot ahead of England down the bottom of the WTC ladder but with a much better win-percentage. We bid ka kite to the WTC and zone in on how this Blackcaps Test group deals with adversity, especially as there are two Tests still to play. Injuries are already a factor and while grit hasn't really been shown in recent Tests to grind out draws or flip bad sessions into a win, being able to roll through a series and absorb the flows of a series requires pure Aotearoa grit.
This Blackcaps Test group is low key bordering on fragile with their batting displays and how strong positions become Test losses. England love themselves and their red-ball reset right now, so tap into how Aotearoa operates in this second Test as we will learn plenty about their mana.
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Peace and love.