2023 ODI World Cup: Blackcaps Preview
The Blackcaps start their World Cup campaign in India on Thursday night against England and won't have Kane Williamson, despite a magical comeback from his major knee injury. Williamson has played in two warm up games prior to the World Cup with scores of 54 and 37, boosted by the fact that he wasn't dismissed in either game and retired after solid starts.
Williamson's recovery sums up the Blackcaps culture and this is a major reason why Blackcaps are one of the best teams in the world. Not many athletes return from ACL ruptures in six months and Williamson is a professional the highest order, tapping into the wairua of his Bay of Plenty home region to boost his recovery. Blackcaps are full of athletes who are among the fittest in the world of cricket, they priortise their wellbeing and there are no shortcuts in their preparation.
Being available for the World Cup is bonkers from Williamson. In his first outing back for Aotearoa, Williamson cruised to 54 runs @ 108sr against Pakistan and while there aren't many insights to offer from warm up games, Williamson's fitness is a major takeaway. His absence for the first game against England is balanced by two innings with 50+ deliveries faced to ramp up for World Cup cricket.
Tim Southee didn't bowl in either warm up game as he returns from a hefty thumb injury. Southee can slot straight back into the Blackcaps 1st 11 for the encounter against England and yet with Williamson missing the first game, Blackcaps may opt to give Southee a few more days of healing. Blackcaps have games against Netherlands (next Monday), Bangladesh and Afghanistan after the opening game which could provide window for Williamson and Southee to build into the tournament.
Batting Five
Devon Conway, Will Young, Kane Williamson, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham
Hitters
Glenn Phillips, Jimmy Neesham, Mark Chapman
Spinners
Mitchell Santner, Ish Sodhi, Rachin Ravindra
Seamers
Trent Boult, Tim Southee, Matt Henry, Lockie Ferguson
There are plenty of options available to Blackcaps to cover the absence of Williamson and possible absence of Southee. Williamson leads the top-five batters and Latham is the only bloke in this group who doesn't average 40+ in ODIs. Mitchell and Latham can slide up a spot in the batting order to plug the Williamson hole which would open up space in the middle order for Neesham, Chapman or Ravindra.
Chapman and Ravindra can also bat in the top-five if required. Given that Ravindra is a top-order batter for Wellington and has had various stints near the top for Aotearoa, including his knock of 97 as an opener in the warm up game vs Pakistan, he is the likeliest option to move into the top-five. This would keep Phillips, Chapman and Neesham down the order where their hitting offers value.
Boult and Henry will lead the seam attack if Southee is absent against England. Blackcaps can then deploy three spinners with Santner and Sodhi joined by Ravindra. Alternatively there is a chance that Lockie Ferguson replaces Southee, although Ferguson has the least form of all Blackcaps in this squad. Ferguson hasn't taken 2 wickets in his last eight innings, he's averaging 60 in ODIs this year and he has 1w @ 151avg/6rpo across three ODIs in India.
Extra seam overs can come from Neesham and Mitchell, while Phillips can chime in with spin. There is a chance that Chapman gets overs as a spinner as well, but this is unlikely as Chapman didn't bowl in either warm up game, he has never bowled in an ODI and has bowled 4ov in T20Is since 2018. Commentators may suggest that Chapman get an over or two if he is playing, but there is no evidence to suggest that Chapman will bowl at this tournament.
Phillips on the other hand bowled 13ov in the warm up games and he has bowled 25ov in ODIs this year. Ultimately, if this extra bowling slot is relevant for Blackcaps against England and throughout the World Cup it means that the five main bowlers haven't done the mahi. Boult's return is vital for Blackcaps and while everyone was stressing about Boult's contract situation, he quietly delivered his best years of ODI bowling in his career.
Boult took 18w @ 12.38avg/3.98rpo last year as his most efficient year and he has 10w @ 15.8avg/5.2rpo which is second. How Henry performs will be crucial for Blackcaps, especially if he's bowling without Southee in the team. Henry has 14w @ 32.2avg/4.9rpo in ODIs this year after six years averaging below 31, five of which were below 28avg.
Southee wasn't a consistent presence in the 2019 World Cup 1st 11 and since then, Southee has established himself as a key ODI bowler. Last year's 14w @ 23.2avg/4.7rpo was his best year of ODI bowling since 2011 and he has backed it up with 10w @ 30.9avg/6.8rpo this year. While his ODI stats this year aren't elite, they are better than nearly every year of ODI bowling in Southee's career. Along with Boult and Henry, these three will move the new ball and offer ample craft to win battles in the middle overs.
Santer and Sodhi don't have ODI bowling stats to generate hype. Sodhi does have an increased workload in ODIs this year as it is his first year with more than 62ov bowled in ODIs (92ov, 13w @ 38.9avg/5.5rpo). Santner has a glorious record of 4w @ 80.2avg/5.2rpo in ODIs this year. Most of their ODI mahi this year has come in a Blackcaps team that cast the selection net as wide as possible and while there is no reason to suggest that either can dominate this World Cup, they just need to play their role in this Blackcaps outfit.
When thinking about the best cricket teams in the world, best team cultures and teams with ample winning habits, Aotearoa isn't thrown into the equation. Blackcaps are not viewed as a favourite for this tournament and yet they are chasing their third World Cup final in a row, plus they are the only team to compete in the last two finals. Blackcaps have made three consecutive T20 World Cup semi-finals and won the first World Test Championship, so they are obviously doing something right.
Blackcaps will be one of, if not the best fielding team at this event. Blackcaps will work the hardest running between wickets and minor errors that other teams make frequently, won't feature anywhere near Blackcaps cricket. Blackcaps are successful because of how they work through tournaments, adapting to conditions and various scenarios that cricket dishes up. None of which is glamorous and this is why Blackcaps aren't viewed as favourites, nor as one of the best teams in the world. This group of cricketers from little ol' Aotearoa have already shown how culture, craft and planning can impact winning. Now they have another opportunity to surprise folks, even though none of it will surprise us.
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Peace and love.