Blackcaps vs England Second Test Preview
However folks want to slice up this Blackcaps pizza, one would be wise to lower expectations in the Test arena. Aotearoa was defeated by England at Bay Oval and while it is easy to get caught up in the labels of England's Test cricket mahi, they are simply a better Test team than the Blackcaps. England has now won four Tests in a row against the Blackcaps and they have won six Tests in a row against all nations.
As well as the standing of Aotearoa and England as Test teams, Blackcaps are losing Tests in home conditions. Blackcaps have now lost two consecutive Tests at Bay Oval which is part of losing a Test in each of the last three Test series in Aotearoa and these series are all two-Test bangers. From unbeatable in Aotearoa, to losing half of the home Tests.
Such a drastic dip in winning mahi could signal a need to overhaul all things Blackcaps. Some kind of overhaul has already happened since World Test Championship glory as retirements, injuries and lads not wanting to play anymore have all impacted the Blackcaps 1st 11. In the last two ODI and T20I World Cups, Blackcaps have made three finals and a semi-final which means they are doing something right.
Blackcaps competed at a decent level in Pakistan for WTC and ODI Super League games. It's also important to note that Blackcaps bounced back to defeat Bangladesh last summer and dominated the first Test vs South Africa.
Blackcaps have slipped well below that WTC champion marker and their development in Test cricket under Tim Southee will be intriguing to track. There is no evidence to expect Blackcaps to defeat England in the second Test and at the same time, there is no evidence to suggest that a drastic overhaul is required. Don't have a sook about the Blackcaps Test team, just tinker with your expectations.
This mid-Test celebration of Tom Blundell can now be updated after the loss. Blundell is second behind Tom Latham for the most Blackcaps Test runs in this WTC cycle and he is first for Test runs since the start of 2022. Blundell has a Test batting average of 44.20 and while Blundell hasn't come close to BJ Watling's 75 Tests, Blundell's average compares nicely to Watling's 37.52avg.
Only one top-five batter scored 50+ for Blackcaps in either innings against England. Devon Conway hit 77 in the first dig and he has a Test average of 53.43, averaging 50+ in the WTC and since 2022. Daryl Mitchell hit 57* in the second innings and he has a Test average of 58.27, averaging 50+ in the WTC and since 2022.
The fact that Conway was the only one from this trio to play in the WTC final vs India informs folks of the Blackcaps changes in Test cricket. Tom Latham and Kane Williamson are never far away from runs, while Henry Nicholls is still under the form microscope following scores of 4 and 7 against England.
Nicholls is averaging 23 in this WTC cycle and since the start of 2022. Despite registering a Test century in six consecutive years, Nicholls' Test averaging is sliding down from 47.33 in 2020. Nicholls averaged 35.88 in 2021, then 27.9 in 2022 and after two Tests this year Nicholls is averaging 10.5. Replacing Nicholls with Will Young seems like a logical move given how Young has performed in domestic cricket this summer.
Blackcaps won't roll out a specialist spinner in Wellington with Ish Sodhi released from the squad. At this point, it is worth highlighting that Blackcaps have not deployed a specialist spinner in any of their four Tests at Bay Oval. In all four Tests at Bay Oval, the opponent has selected a specialist spinner (Jack Leach, Yasir Shah, Mehidy Hasan Miraz) and each opponent has bowled at least two spinners in all four Tests.
This is amplified in losses. Bangladesh and England have defeated Blackcaps using a specialist spinner at Bay Oval. For all the pink-ball funk and English seam bowling excellence, Leach bowled more overs than James Anderson and Ollie Robinson in the first Test. Chuck all of this into the murky ‘Blackcaps use of spin in Aotearoa’ bucket and there still appears to be a hole in how Blackcaps view spinners, as well as developing spinners to perform at Test-winning levels.
What about Michael Bracewell? Fabulous cricketer, I've got Bracewell as a 1st 11 talent. Bracewell is literally doing what Mitchell Santner did and they have churned out similar batting/bowling production in First-Class cricket over the past decade...
Michael Bracewell
Test: 23.33avg/42.62avg (batting/bowling)
FC: 32.76avg/45.69avg
Mitchell Santner
Test: 24.7avg/45.63avg
FC: 29.3avg/47.22avg
I also have Santner as a 1st 11 talent - just cricketing talent. Santner was never celebrated by kiwi cricket fans in Test cricket though as the substance couldn't quite align with how lovely his cricket looks. Keep this in mind as Bracewell gets the run of Test selection while basically doing what Santner did. This is aligned with the general mayhem of Blackcaps Test spinners as Bracewell replaced his younger Wellington homie Rachin Ravindra in this role, while there does not appear to be a plan in place for specialist spinners like Sodhi or Ajaz Patel; both of whom are yo-yo'ed in and out of Test squads.
This is a notable storyline because the seam attack is not as strong as it was during the WTC championship. Trent Boult is doing what he wants, Kyle Jamieson continues to battle injuries and Colin de Grandhomme's tidy nibblers are no longer in the frame. Sodhi is the only bowler in this WTC cycle with a better average than Boult, along with Jamieson they are the only kiwi bowers averaging below 30 in this cycle. De Grandhomme's 2.15rpo makes him the most economical kiwi bowler months after he retired.
Blackcaps can't control the Boult/CDG/Jamieson stuff. It is what it is and they need to find ways to take wickets without them. Personally, I reckon some of the spinners are simply better than some of these seamers and a splash of variety helps build a bowling unit - it has worked for Bangladesh and England recently. None of that will happen at the Basin Reserve though.
England went with three nibblers and one bully in their seam department at Bay Oval. Blackcaps went with one nibbler and three bullies, which wasn't exciting nor was it effective. Matt Henry returns and he will join skipper Tim Southee as a nibbler while Neil Wagner, Blair Tickner and Scott Kuggeleijn compete for the 'hit a hard length' role.
The batting group should be able to learn from the first Test and combine for a better performance. There is more than enough talent and sharp thinkers to sort out any batting issues, especially against excellent England seamers. Whether this bowling unit is good enough to take 20 wickets is the most important aspect of this Test for Blackcaps. For that to happen the bowlers must adapt, execute their plans for longer and for some of them they need to prove themselves as Test-quality bowlers.
Lowering expectations does not mean caring less. For many Blackcaps and kiwi cricket fans, Papatuanuku and Ranginui have ravaged their lives in recent weeks and Blackcaps Test cricket at the Basin Reserve provides an opportunity to celebrate life. The Basin Reserve is a place of worship as kiwi cricket fans congregate around the quirky sport of Test cricket, seeking a moment of joy or distraction. For all the cricketing wrinkles, Blackcaps have a chance to showcase their mana and bring light to kiwis on sacred turf of the Basin Reserve.
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Peace and love.