The ODI World Cup is lurking off in the distance and Aotearoa's Blackcaps will roll out another strong squad as they chase their third World Cup final in a row, as well as their fifth semi-final in a row. For a wee nation that does not have the resources, let alone the population of other cricketing nations, it's pretty damn impressive for Aotearoa to make seven consecutive World Cup semi-finals including T20 World Cups.

Since losing to England in that pesky 2019 WC final, Blackcaps crept their way to first in the ODI WC Super League. This qualification competition features 13 teams and Aotearoa finished as the only team to win 16 games. Since the last WC, Blackcaps have a record of 21-13. Blackcaps have also won a World Test Championship in this period and last summer captured the general Blackcaps vibe nicely. For all the angst and negativity whipped up around Blackcaps Test cricket, they drew two Tests in Pakistan and won three of their four Tests in Aotearoa.

All of which frames the forecast for this WC in India. Folks love to whinge about selections, contracting moves and performances, however Blackcaps have settled in winning groove across all formats since the 2015 WC. Aotearoa is one of the most consistent cricketing nations in the world, especially in major tournaments and the upcoming WC will provide another checkpoint along this journey.

Kane Williamson is unlikely to play. His presence will offer an obvious boost for the squad in a 'helping hand' role, but it would be silly to generate false hype around Williamson's availability as a player. As the greatest batter Aotearoa has produced, Williamson has the highest batting average of all Blackcaps ODI players since the start of 2021 (54.42avg) and he leaves a Mt Maunganui sized hole in the batting line up.

Without Williamson, Blackcaps have five batters who are likely to form the core of the batting unit. Devon Conway is one of the best batters in the world right now. Daryl Mitchell has already played various roles across all formats and may sit as the second best Blackcaps batter in this group. Tom Latham is the mahi-man of the batting line up and he is likely to play a wicket-keeping role, also offering leadership with Tim Southee.

Finn Allen and Glenn Phillips provide x-factor in a tournament where totals over 300 runs could be the status-quo. Allen doesn't look as smooth as Martin Guptill when they are stroking boundaries, yet Allen's aggressive style is what Blackcaps selectors seem to appreciate.

Allen and Guptill have similar records since January 1st, 2021...

Allen: 533 runs @ 31.35avg/95sr, 5 x 50
Guptill: 503 runs @ 33.53avg/85sr, 2 x 100, 2 x 50

Guptill's centuries were against Netherlands and Ireland, while he had scores of 6 and 2 against Australia in his most recent ODIs. Allen hasn't dominated ODI batting and has barely done enough to warrant consistent selection ahead of Guptill. Allen does have the second highest strike-rate of notable Blackcaps batters in this period since the start of 2021 and has the favour of decision-makers.

Phillips can offer spin bowling in India but his mahi is all about explosive middle-order hitting. Aotearoa cricket does not produce 'below average' fielders and this is part of what makes Blackcaps a good cricketing outfit. Phillips is one of the best fielders in the world though and while his record (since start of 2021) of 31.9avg/90.7sr is not where he would like, he is capable of winning games with a splash of magic.

The ODI series in Pakistan earlier this year (not the most recent tour) saw Blackcaps roll out a full-strength ODI squad. With the series tied after two games, Phillips whacked 63* @ 150sr batting seventh to win the decider. If Blackcaps need a different twist they can promote Phillips up the order and they can save him for a purely slugging role.

Having Williamson in this group of five batters would be a massive boost for Blackcaps. Having Allen, Conway, Mitchell, Latham and Phillips is pretty good though. There is also scope to play that exact top-five with Michael Bracewell and Mitchell Santner operating as all-rounders. No one has been as active since the start of 2021 as Latham (31 games) or Mitchell (25 games), but Santner is next having played 21 games and Bracewell's 19 games is a notch below Matt Henry (20 games).

The emergence of Bracewell seems designed for this World Cup. While Bracewell was a genuine batter in domestic cricket with Otago and Wellington, Santner has always been an all-rounder who has batted in the top-order for Northern across different formats. Since the start of 2021, Bracewell has an ODI batting record of 42.5avg/118sr and Santner has a record of 32.4avg/92.6sr.

Both have better batting averages than Phillips, Allen and Henry Nicholls, while in the same zone as Guptill during this period. Bracewell and Santner are equipped to handle these batting roles which then opens up the bowling department as they will deliver 10 overs each in most games.

Matt Henry 50 runs @ 128sr and 4w for Somerset vs Lancashire#KiwiCountyTour pic.twitter.com/KZsYTk4r6O
— The Niche Cache (@thenichecache) May 14, 2023

Ish Sodhi can then be selected in the 1st 11 alongside Trent Boult, Matt Henry and Tim Southee. Sodhi, Santner and Bracewell are all averaging above 40 with the ball since the start of 2021 so they all reside in the same pocket. All three have bowled 100+ overs in this period along with Henry, Lockie Ferguson and Blair Tickner. Not only do the three spinners offer a different style, they play different roles with the Santner/Sodhi combination providing the best example.

This gives Blackcaps five certified batters, three spinners and three seamers. Boult's selection is intriguing and he is still the best Blackcaps bowler with a record of 14.6avg/3.96rpo in his nine games since the start of 2021. The spinners all average 40+ but along with Boult's exceptional record, Henry and Southee are averaging 23 in this period.

That's a 1st 11 forecast and Blackcaps have different options available in their squad of 15 (assuming WC squads are still made up of 15 players). Lockie Ferguson, Adam Milne and Kyle Jamieson are the best bowlers remaining. Possible doosras could be Henry Shipley or Rachin Ravindra.

Lockie Ferguson's recent struggles...

2022 IPL: 12w @ 35.5avg/8.9rpo
2022 ODI: 12w @ 47avg/6.2rpo
2023 ODI: 4w @ 74avg/5.9rpo
2023 T20I: 2w @ 47avg/10.4rpo
2023 IPL: 1w @ 96avg/12.5rpo#Blackcaps
— The Niche Cache (@thenichecache) May 21, 2023

Ferguson's (16 games) form has slipped in recent years. Milne has only played five games since the start of 2021 and his selection will probably be impacted by Jamieson's availability, which has seen him play just six games in this period. Whether Jamieson can work through enough mahi to prepare him for the WC will be interesting and if he's fit, Jamieson could benefit from a hearty dose of faith from Blackcaps selectors. That's the same faith that Ferguson will likely benefit from.

With Ferguson and Jamieson in the squad, there are two spots remaining. Blackcaps have numerous wicket-keeping options they can deploy but having a specialist wicket-keeper in the squad is sensible. Tom Blundell has only played six ODIs, four since the start of 2021 and his versatility as a batter makes him a handy squad member.

The last squad spot could go to Will Young as batting depth. Young has the second highest batting average (49.33avg) behind Williamson of Blackcaps batters since the start of 2021, which is also his ODI career average. List-A cricket is Young's best domestic format (42.59avg) and like Blundell, Young can cover all batting positions if required.

Here is how a Blackcaps WC squad could look:

Finn Allen, Devon Conway, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham, Glenn Phillips
Michael Bracewell, MItchell Santner, Matt Henry, Ish Sodhi, Tim Southee, Trent Boult
Will Young, Tom Blundell, Lockie Ferguson, Kyle Jamieson

Players offering depth who could be promoted: