New Zealand's White Ferns have started the ODI World Cup with two losses and while there is still room for a positive outlook, their 4-11 record in ODIs since the start of 2024 suggests that they won't be good enough to bounce back from these defeats. The first up loss against Australia was expected and when packaged with the underwhelming loss vs South Africa in their second game, there are some alarming trends on offer.

Aotearoa has been bowled out for less than 250 in both games. Australia put up 326 and then dismissed White Ferns for 237 in the 44th over, then South Africa dismissed the kiwis for 231 in the 48th over. White Ferns did well to take all 10 wickets against Australia but they conceded 6.5rpo and they conceded 5.7rpo against South Africa, who chased down the target in the 41st over.

Sophie Devine had scores of 112 @ 100sr vs Australia and 85 runs @ 87sr against South Africa. Along with Lea Tahuhu's 4w @ 17.2avg/4.9rpo, these two have been the best players for Aotearoa. The issue for White Ferns has always revolved around getting winning mahi from a variety of players and while there are admirable individual performances, New Zealand won't win many games in this manner.

Suzie Bates has faced 10 deliveries without scoring a run. This is a horrible start to the tournament for Bates but it's more concerning when checking in with her ODI form in recent years. Bates is averaging 20.4 since the start of 2024 and 14.5 this year, with a clear trend in her ODI batting when digesting it year by year...

2020: 39avg/70sr
2021: 11.4avg/54sr
2022: 44.1avg/87sr
2023: 40.2avg/75sr

2024: 22.6avg/71sr
2025: 14.5avg/62sr

Not only has Bates' production diminished in the last two years, but she is the leader of the strike-rate wobbles for White Ferns. Kiwi cricket fans should be tapped in with strike-rates because the case against Kane Williamson for Blackcaps T20 selection is all about him having the lowest strike-rate of the batting mixer. This is a brewing yarn right now for Blackcaps selection and it's on display in the White Ferns batting unit as well.

There is a funky comparison to the other ladies who hit centuries against New Zealand as Ash Gardner scored 115 runs @ 138sr and Tazmin Brits scored 101 runs @ 113sr. Devine had the lowest strike-rate of these three centuries and her overall strike-rate in the tournament is 94. The only White Ferns batter over 100sr after two games is Izzy Gaze who has shown her attacking flair with 38 runs @ 141sr.

Bates doesn't have a strike-rate because she doesn't have any runs. Fellow opener Georgia Plimmer has 31 runs @ 45sr so far and Amelia Kerr has 56 runs @ 57sr. These three form the top-order for White Ferns as the same team has been rolled out for both losses and their slower run-scoring is fits into bigger timelines.

Bates, Plimmer and A-Kerr are all below 71sr in ODI batting since the start of 2024. This also applies to their 2025 batting and while they have lost a wicket in the first over of both games which means they need to adjust their tempo to build the innings, the fact that no White Ferns batter has scored 50+ runs with a strike-rate over 95 since the start of 2024 tells us that Aotearoa isn't in the same realm as other nations who are scoring faster with every year.

Jess Kerr continues to be the best bowler for New Zealand. She is tied with Tahuhu on 4w @ 25avg/6.4rpo and this keeps her as the leading wicket-taker for Aotearoa in ODIs since the start of 2024 and in 2025. J-Kerr has taken a wicket in six consecutive games and since the start of 2024 she is building a strong record for ODI bowling in India with 9w @ 22avg/5.8rpo in her four innings.

Aside from Brooke Halliday's 3ov @ 4.6rpo, there are six White Ferns who have bowled 10+ overs at the World Cup and Tahuhu is the only one conceding below 5rpo. Devine and Eden Carson are in the 10+ overs group and haven't taken a wicket yet while conceding over 6.5rpo. This falls into alignment with their ODI bowling recently as Devine is the only bowler averaging 50+ since the start of 2024 and Carson is the only White Fern who is averaging over 30 with 10 wickets (45.6avg) in this period.

Here's how the last three years of ODI bowling look for Devine and Carson

Sophie Devine

2023: 20.3avg/4.9rpo
2024: 44.5avg/5.3rpo
20205: 12ov @ 6.6rpo

Eden Carson

2023: 69.3avg/5.2rpo
2024: 48.5avg/5.1rpo
2025: 41.2avg/4.6rpo

All of this influences how New Zealand stacks up against other ODI teams right now. Here's some more info zoning in on teams at the World Cup since the start of 2024...

White Ferns have the lowest win/loss ratio (0.363) and they are the only team below 0.5.

White Ferns average 24.37 runs per wicket with the bat and Pakistan is the only team below that (24.02). They are scoring at 4.72rpo which is the third lowest - ahead of Pakistan (4.68) and Bangladesh (4.1)

White Ferns average 30.25 runs per wicket with the ball which is the third highest - behind South Africa (33.09) and Sri Lanka (32.38).They are conceding 5.07rpo which is the third highest behind South Africa (5.49) and India (5.32).

However this pie is sliced, those stats tell us that White Ferns are one of the worst teams at the ODI World Cup and they have started with two losses. The next phase will be more informative though as Aotearoa plays Bangladesh on Friday night, then they have games against Sri Lanka and Pakistan next week.

White Ferns should win all three games and give themselves a crack at making the semi-finals, although they will probably need a win or two in against India and England to progress. Dipping out of the World Cup bubble, anything other than three wins over the next week would be a bad sign for this group as they would have slipped backwards since their T20 World Cup glory last year.

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Peace and love.