New Zealand's Test series in Zimbabwe isn't part of the World Test Championship but it's our first dose of Test cricket in a while and an important phase for the Blackcaps to lay some foundations in the longest format. Aotearoa joins Sri Lanka and West Indies as the only nations to tour Zimbabwe twice since the start of 2015, with the Blackcaps grabbing two wins back in in 2016.

Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Ireland and South Africa are the other nations who have toured Zimbabwe in this period. The little three nations have not toured Zimbabwe in this period, no surprises there given their where their priorities lay as the minority of Test cricket. Funnily enough, Australia is the only little three nation that has won the World Test Championship.

Blackcaps finished fourth in the last WTC cycle with a 7-7 record and this is aligned with their 2024 record of 6-6. In Tests since the start of 2023 they are 10-8-1 and this winning record over the last two years of their Test schedule reflects positively on the development pipeline as a wave of fresh talent has swept into the Test squad.

One of those players who has become a regular Test player in recent years is Glenn Phillips and he has been pulled out of this squad due to injury. Phillips was one of four Blackcaps who played all 12 Tests last year along with skipper Tom Latham, Rachin Ravindra and Tom Blundell. Thanks to his consistent 1st 11 role, Test batting/bowling averages around 30 and world-class fielding, Phillips has become an important member of the Test team so his absence is notable.

Michael Bracewell will stay with the Test squad for the first Test as a cover for Phillips. In the announcement coach Walter described Bracewell as a like-for-like replacement who provides the same balance of the team, which may suggest that he is likely to play the first Test.

As noted below, neither Devon Conway or Henry Nicholls warrant 1st 11 selection because of their struggles in Test cricket over the last few years. Blackcaps could roll with an opening combo of Latham and Will Young, while Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell and Blundell move up a slot.

Blackcaps have three all-rounders in Bracewell, Santner and Nathan Smith. Bracewell and Santner both have First-Class batting averages over 30 and Smith is averaging 26 in FC batting, which would then allow an extra bowling option alongside Matt Henry and Will O'Rourke who are the two best seamers.

If conditions are super spinny, then Ajaz Patel deserves a crack. Jacob Duffy and Matt Fisher are the other seamers who could make their Test debuts. Coach Rob Walter will probably have Conway as the opening batter though to give Conway a chance to command his spot in the 1st 11 for the next wave of Tests, which would bump Young to number three and keep the other batters in their usual roles.

The variety of possible 1st 11 combinations shows the depth of Aotearoa cricket, which has also been shown in 17 different players being used throughout the T20 tri-series. Blackcaps can roll out a team without Conway and Nicholls, they have three capable spinners with three enticing all-rounders in the mix, as well as a strong seam unit that could be boosted by two lads who could debut.

As for Conway and Nicholls…

Devon Conway

2024: 21.4avg/55sr
Last WTC: 19.6avg/51sr

Henry Nicholls

2023: 29avg/60sr
Last WTC: 6.2avg/38sr

Ravindra and Young were the only members of this Test squad who averaged 40+ in the last WTC cycle as well as 2024 Test batting. Mitchell is the only other lad who averaged 30+ in 2024 and Latham is the captain, so he's locked in. 2024 was the first year of Latham's Test career averaging below 30 and after averaging 40+ in three consecutive years (2017-19), Latham has averaged 40+ in one (2022) of his last five years.

Latham's Test average as captain is 28.8 which is a notable dip down from his 40.3avg when not captain. This is similar to the last captain Tim Southee who averaged 38.6 as skipper and 29.4 when he wasn't captain, so Latham needs to find some juice to avoid the awkward situation that plagued when Southee was captain.

Blundell has had a dip in form as well but his 2024 mahi featured a significant rise in his strike-rate so this may hint at a change in his style of play. Alternatively, Blundell may have tried to hit his way out of a slump so his strike-rate increased without the runs he would have wanted. He's still the best wicket-keeping option and Blundell has been a dominant force when playing Plunket Shield for Wellington in recent summers.

Tom Blundell in years with 5+ Tests

2020: 27.7avg/41sr
2021: 12.1avg/25sr
2022: 58.5avg/52sr
2023: 36avg/56sr
2024: 23.3avg/72sr

Recent Plunket Shield seasons

2022/23: 48.5avg/75sr
2023/24: 58.5avg/64sr
2024/25: 40.6avg/67sr

No one should be worried about the future of Blackcaps cricket and blokes who don't perform will be shuffled out for emerging talent who deserve opportunities. 23-year-old Rhys Mariu has a First-Class average of 54.4 and is the next best top-order option, while his Canterbury comrade 24-year-old Mitch Hay has a FC average of 46.6 and is already giving Blundell a nudge.

New Zealand's 10 Best Young Cricketers After The Summer Of 2024/25

Breaking Down The NZ-A Cricket Squad For The 2025 Tour Of Bangladesh

2025 New Zealand A Tour Of Bangladesh Debrief

Keep in mind that 23-year-old Bevon Jacobs averaged 59.5 in his first season of Plunket Shield and there are plenty of other emerging batters on the rise such as Muhammad Abbas (21yrs), Dale Phillips (26yrs), Matt Boyle (22yrs) and Curtis Heaphy (21yrs). Some of whom featured in the NZ-A tour of Bangladesh a few months ago and there is another NZ-A tour of South Africa lined up for late August.

Fisher wasn't part of the NZ-A tour of Bangladesh but he was involved in the 2022 NZ-A tour of India where Walter was coach. This forms the foundation of his selection for the Blackcaps Test squad as well as FC being his best bowling format. Fisher's speed probably boosted his case for selection as the swing/seam combo that many kiwi seamers love may not be found in Zimbabwe.

Matt Fisher's NZ-A tour of India with Rob Walter as coach

FC: 26ov, 4w @ 26.2avg/4rpo
LA: 14ov, 3w @ 31av/6.6rpo

Career

FC: 24.1avg/3.7rpo
LA: 25.9avg/5.3rpo
T20: 41.7avg/9.5rpo

Fisher still sits behind Duffy though, who seems likely to make his Test debut. Duffy is an excellent T20I bowler for Blackcaps and while FC bowling is his weakest format, Duffy has demanded an opportunity through his recent Plunket Shield mahi as well as FC bowling overseas.

Duffy only played one Plunket Shield game last summer but he had 30+ wickets in the two seasons before that, as well as a strong FC campaign for NZ-A in their 2023 tour of Australia. He was also snapping up wickets for Worcestershire in County Championship prior to the T20 tri-series and has averaged below 30 in all four of these pockets.

Jacob Duffy's recent First-Class mahi

2022/23 Plunket Shield: 32w @ 29avg/3.2rpo - 1st - two with 30+ wickets
2023/24 Plunket Shield: 31w @ 24.4avg/2.8rpo - 2nd - three with 30+ wickets
2023 in Australia: 7w @ 28.4avg/3.1rpo
2025 County Championship: 19w @ 28.5avg/3.9rpo

Career

ODI: 24.8avg/6.1rpo
T20I: 15.8avg/6.9rpo
FC: 32.7avg/3.1rpo
LA: 25.2avg/5.4rpo
T20: 24.8avg/8.3rpo

Don't stress about Aotearoa's seam bowling depth either...

Emerging seam brigade in First-Class bowling

Will O'Rourke (23yrs): 26.9avg/3.3rpo
Nathan Smith (27yrs): 26.9avg/2.9rpo
Ben Sears (27yrs): 27.8avg/3.7rpo
Matt Fisher (25yrs) 24.1avg/3.7rpo
Zak Foulkes (23yrs): 27.1avg/3.2rpo
Ben Lister (29yrs): 25.6avg/2.7rpo

O'Rourke was the next best seamer behind Henry last year. It's possible for Blackcaps to have their four best bowlers from 2024 in the same team, as well as Smith who should get more opportunities to settle into his Test career. Smith was playing for Surrey in County Championship this year where he averaged 24 with the bat and 28 with the ball.

The four best Test bowlers for Blackcaps in 2024

Matt Henry: 48w @ 18.5avg/3.2rpo
Ajaz Patel: 37w @ 26.4avg/3.7rpo
Will O'Rourke: 36w @ 24.8avg/3.7rpo
Mitchell Santner: 33w @ 19.8avg/3rpo

Matt Henry is awesome

Before 2020: 48.4avg/3.2rpo
Since start of 2020: 24.1avg/3.1rpo

To support The Niche Cache you can join the Patreon whanau or donate through Buy Me A Coffee. A little goes a long way to fund our mahi. Smash an ad.

Peace and love.