RLWC Semi Final Preview
After weeding out the battlers, the Rugby League World Cup kicks in to 5th gear this weekend with the Semi Finals. That intro was a bit harsh with the early stages of the World Cup providing lots of entertainment and heart felt moments but this is business time - I'll save my romantic tribute to international rugby league in my World Cup debrief. We've got the four best teams, with the 4th spot being filled by Fiji who well and truly earned their spot, defeating Samoa who will be kicking themselves for not making it to the semis. Each game will provide plenty of interesting little plots that us writers love, but they will also provide rugby league in all its glory. The England vs New Zealand game will be a true battle with both teams housing plenty of muscle, firepower and flair. The Australia vs Fiji game will be the typical David and Goliath battle, we'll all be supporting Fiji which will make it one hell of a match
England vs New Zealand
The Basics - Both teams will be out to play a similar brand of footy. If the English go out to slow the game down, slow the play the balls, grind it through the middle and try to physically dominate the Kiwis they will fail. They have to go out and use the likes of Sam Tomkins, James Roby and Rangi Chase to take the game to the Kiwis and see how they like to have pressure put on them. The Kiwis will play how they have played all tournament. Power through the middle, speed around the ruck and clinical back line play. This is what works for the Kiwis and uses all their strengths. If the Kiwis ignore their talented back line and get in to a battle through the middle they could suffer the consequences.
Key men - For the English, Sam Burgess shapes as a very influential figure. There's been plenty of talk surrounding his role in keeping Sonny Bill Williams quiet, but I think Burgess has the ability to really trouble the Kiwis. He'll play very physical but also look to off load and create opportunities for others. Look for James Roby and Sam Tomkins to thrive of any chance Burgess creates.
The Kiwis will rely heavily on Kieran Foran. Shaun Johnson will provide the cherry on top, but Foran will build the foundation. The variety of Foran's play is the key. He can kick long and accurately as well as being able to execute a wide range of kicks down the left hand side. He'll threaten with his running game while also putting people in gaps and running second man plays. If you offer variety, the opposition never really know what is coming at them. Throw in his extremely tough defence and you have a complete player.
The Verdict - I can't see the English beating the Kiwis, but I can see the Kiwis beating themselves. If the Kiwis aren't on song and try to mix it up with the English, expect the Poms to rally together and ride the wave of support from their home fans. The Kiwis are bigger, more powerful, more skillful and more clinical but as we have seen in the past, this doesn't always mean a certain win. Kiwis <12.
Australia vs Fiji
The Basics - The Aussies looked at their against the USA despite a reshuffled line up, but expect the Fijians to really take the game by the balls. The Fijians will play with a heap of emotion and would have been told all week that they have nothing to loose. If the Kangaroos are able to withstand the initial waves of attack by the Fijians then expect them to pull away in the second half. If the Fijians feel like they have a sniff, then expect Kevin Naiqama, Akuila Uate, Tariq Sims etc to get their hands on the ball as often as they can and really amp up the energy.
Key men - For the Australians, Jonathan Thurston is the main man. Thurston has the full repertoire and could play the Fijians out of the contest with a strong tactical kicking game. When you look at the blokes that Fiji will have returning these kicks, you would imagine that Thurston, Cronk and Smith will be looking for corners or even kicking the ball dead. Thurston will target the big Fijian forwards with his running and passing game which could be the difference late in the game.
The Fijians need Akuila Uate to get his hands on the ball a lot. We saw against Samoa that the Fijians can attack from anywhere and Uate leads this group of potent outside backs. The problem is that these guys need to come in field and look for the ball. This is where Uate is the key as he can inspire the other outside backs to have a go, to have a crack and see what happens. They can't rely on their halves who will put under the pump, to give them crisp, early ball so they need to get amongst it and have some fun.
The Verdict - I like Fiji here but don't think they have the halves to be able to compete. They've got the forward pack who will look to smash the Aussies and they have more than enough fire power in the backs. If they can ruffle a few Australian feathers then we could have an exciting encounter but this could also easily turn in to a bit of a Kangaroo romp if the Bati can't handle Greg Inglis, Jarryd Hayne etc. If you've got a tenner spare, chuck it on the Fijians for a bit of fun. Australia <12