Roosters vs Knights

This is a semi final that epitomises what finals footy is all about. The Roosters have been the form team all season, while the Knights are the underdogs, a team with momentum who have made a run into and through the finals. We all know this pretty well as we have seen it many times with the Warriors, they win games they simply shouldn’t because they have got a roll on.

The Roosters are have found a nice balance with a wide variety of talented players who pose a threat every time they get the ball whilst also having the metal determination and nous to be able to protect their try line with vigour. I reckon that the week’s rest will have done them wonders. They'll have refreshed over last week, getting their recovery in and working on combinations. As soon as they found out who they would be facing this week, they would have started to compile a game plan and work on plays that will expose the Knights. For me, the key men for the Roosters are Shaun Kenny-Dowall and Jake Friend, an interesting pair when you think of the talent in their team.

SKD has had a mixed season so far, filling in on the wing as well as missing a few games. The Roosters haven’t really missed him that much as Mitch Aubusson did a fine job filling in and SKD hasn’t been able to recapture his fine form of a couple a years back. Michael Jennings will do a great job as per usual, but if SKD can provide a threat on the other edge, the Roosters will be nearly unplayable. The ability to attack down both wings is highly important especially against teams who love to play tough. SKD not only has to step up offensively but he must also do a job defensively. As the Roosters are all gun defenders and have enviable defensive attitudes this won’t be a problem. It’s more what he does when he’s got the ball that will determine how the Roosters go.

Jake Friend has got to be a strong contender for most under rated player this season. The dummy half has been aided by Trent Robinson’s trust in Daniel Mortimer which gives Friend a bit of spell but his defensive work, distribution and running game are all fantastic. The Rooster’s halves will be under a lot of pressure, so Friend will need to pick his moments to go for a scoot out of dummy half or put a kick in to help out. Given that he's been doing this all season, Roosters fans will know they are in good hands.

Every time I tune in to some sort of NRL analysis, I get more excited about the Knights. They have what it takes to win a grand final and look to be a replica of the Dragons team that Wayne Bennett led to a premiership a few years ago, except they might be slightly better. Their forward pack is made for encounters like this. Everyone involved with the Knights knows that these blokes are going to give their all, make very few mistakes and hurt people on defence. This is where I think the Knights have the greatest chance to keep up with the Roosters. If their forwards can upset the Roosters with some niggle and not letting them rumble up the field like they have done all season, then the pressure will go back on the Roosters. The Knights have plenty of blokes who like to niggle and have very good wrestlers (Jeremy Smith, Beau Scott, Willie Mason, etc) so the play the ball area will be very interesting. If the Knights forwards can hang with their Rooster opposition, then the Knights have the back line to cause the Roosters all kinds of problems. Size, speed and power are values attributed with the majority of the Knights backs and they have two very smart halves who possess a wide range of skills.

The first player who will have to be on song is Beau Scott. We all know how good he is when trying to whack and wrestle, but he must add to the Knights attack. If the Knights can establish Scott as a decoy runner a few times then use him running tough lines, the Roosters could be in for a tough afternoon. If Beau Scott can cause a few problems running the ball, then his comrades around him will have a bit more space to attack, especially Darius Boyd. If the Roosters defenders can ignore Scott and focus on Boyd then the Knights won’t have much hope. Offloads, tough lines, decoy runs and some distribution from Scott could make the difference for the Knights.

Tyrone Roberts has really grown this season and his abilities were there for everyone to see against the Storm. In much the same way that Beau Scott is a key player, Roberts allows Jarrod Mullen to do what he does best – direct and control the game. Roberts provides the spark and the x factor. He is a fantastic runner of the ball which is an important asset for a half to have. Every good team in the NRL has two halves who each provide a threat with their kicking and running games. With Roberts coming in to his own, the Knights are now in this category. Expect the Roosters to send many big bodies his way so Roberts must also take care of his defensive duties but where you will see Roberts shine is off the back of quick play the balls running at the big bopper Roosters.

Overall, I really think that the Knights can win this one. They now have skill, size, experience, power and emotion. I say now because earlier in the season they were missing a few of the traits that make premiership contenders. I don’t have any reason why the Roosters will fail, I just believe that everything is falling in to place for the Knights, who have much more to play for. Knights < 12

Rabbitohs vs Sea Eagles

What a battle this is going to be! Both sides have class oozing out of the pores and are willing to bleed for their cause. Maybe they’ll have class oozing out of their blood? Who knows! But what I do know is that whoever wins this, has a pretty good chance of winning the whole thing. Same speech as the other game here – Manly are battered, bruised and battling against Sir Fatigue while the Rabbitohs and more importantly Greg Ingls have been able to rest and rehab. Unlike the Knights, the Sea Eagles don’t really have much momentum, they have just been grinding out wins the only way they know how and have been doing so without Brett Stewart which is quite a task. The Bunnies will have enjoyed their week off more than any other team in history with the knee of Inglis and the ankle of Sutton getting some time to settle down and enjoy a couple of beersies on the beach - aka relax.

Manly are a big threat despite Geoff Toovey admitting that they were feeling a bit tired 20 minutes in to last weeks game. He underestimated how much the battle against the Roosters had hurt his team. This is an important learning. Had Manly not been visibly fatigued against the Sharks, Toovey may not have known just how tired his boys are. Now he knows. So expect the Sea Eagles to get plenty of rest and maybe even try a few new peptides this week. All jokes aside, Manly will be doing everything in their power to recover, lightening their training loads, spending more time with the physio and doing more fine tuning. For me, Manly must nullify the Rabbitohs forward pack and any sort of rumble they can get. Manly don’t have the biggest pack, but they have a bunch of smart footy players who all know how to wrestle and fight for any sort of advantage.

A key man for Manly will be Justin Horo who plays on the left edge with Kieran Foran and Steve Matai. Horo’s performance will be vital as the Rabbitohs will be doing a lot of research on Manly’s right edge attack (which is amazing) so Horo must give the left edge a variety of skills. Most importantly will be his ability to connect with Foran and Matai. I’d imagine that Manly will try to attack with their right edge then quickly shift the ball to their left edge the next play. This requires minimal communication and planning on the field so this is where all their work throughout the season comes to play. Horo is a capable ball player so if he can replicate in anyway the skills of Glenn Stewart, Manly will be away laughing. Horo has been playing well all season and must provide both those inside and outside of him with quick play the balls and the odd offload to break up a stringent Rabbitohs defence.

Throughout this preview I’ve tried to pick blokes who might not be the most obvious choice as a key player but is highly important to his team’s performance. It is impossible to ignore Daly Cherry Evans and Kieran Foran however. It is much more difficult to prepare for two different but equally threatening players as opposed to one or two mediocre blokes. DCE and Foran are better than John Sutton and Adam Reynolds. Straight up and down no playing around no bullshit yeeah buddy. So I expect the Manly halves to stamp their class all over this game. On defence, the Sea Eagles play makers will be out to monster Reynolds and Sutton, denting any confidence they may have. On attack they will pin the Rabbitohs deep in their own territory, they’ll keep the Rabbitohs forwards turning around, they’ll make attacking kicks that put pressure on the centres and second rowers of Souths. Expect the unexpected with their kicking game. Early kicks will play a part. They won’t kick for wingers but threaten with kicks into awkward positions. What you can rely on, however, is these two running with the ball. Cos’ they’re bloody good at it.

Ah the Rabbitohs. My team of the year and a team who have it all pretty much. I have no doubts that they will try to beat Manly up. They’ll look to impose their physical nature upon Manly and if they can do this early, then I’m not sure that Manly will be able to keep up. The Rabbitoh forward pack is the best in the business and if you let them get any sort of momentum, watch out. The Burgess boys are the obvious ones to watch out for but even the likes of Chris McQueen and Ben Te’o are worthy of a mention as they are both big boys who are as skilful as they are tough. Issac Luke is vital to this forward pack. With a battler dummy half, they might as well just be prepared to only use their forwards. Luke allows them to take advantage of any quick play the balls by bursting out of dummy half breaking tackles and distributing the ball to his outside men. Isaac Luke should never be under estimated.

Another player who will be important is Dylan Walker. Walker will be targeted by Manly and will have no choice but to step up. Given that Walker will be up against Steve Matai, he has his work cut out for him. If he can step up and offer some exciting attack and handle Matai well, expect the rest of the Sea Eagles to get re-energised. There’ll be nothing better for the Bunnies than to see their youngest ‘family’ member performing in the crunch time. He can also play alright with the ball in hand. Both Matai and Lyon have come up against younger, faster, bigger centres this season but they always do well. Walker has most of those attributes (he’s not huge) but he is also an extremely gifted ball player who played at 6 for much of his junior career. This means that when the ball gets to him, you don’t know whether it’s going to stop with him or whether he’s going to create for someone else. Despite his tender age, I reckon this could be Matai’s biggest test this season.

Oh yeah, then there’s Greg Inglis. There really is nothing left to say about him. He is the best player in the world right now.

I’m putting my balls on the line this week and going with two ‘upsets’. Yup, that’s right, Manly will win this one. Who knows why really, I’ve talked about how great they are all season so why stop now? They’ll only loose if Brett Stewart doesn’t play. Manly <12