State Of Origin, Game Dos: The Preview
It's always good to build into another State Of Origin contest with a game under the belt. We have been given a taster, we have seen what each team is looking to do but we also know that each team will try showcase something a bit different as well. And Melbourne, we take Origin to the land of crazy ball where Queensland's best players also happen to reside.
The most striking aspect of game one was how dominant QLD were physically. Not in terms of making easy metres and big hits but the niggle, to the extent that this is all we are hearing out of the New South Wales camp.
NSW will try match QLD in a niggle-off. Which shouldn't be something that you need to improve on in Origin footy; it comes with the territory and NSW weren't proactive enough in this department, nor were they quick enough to step up for their teammates. At least NSW have identified that they were straight up bullied in game one.
I don't want to make too much of all of that though, it could easily be a bit of a smokescreen for both teams.
Playing in Melbourne on the famed turf of the Melbourne Cricket Ground will also be interesting. Sydney has longer grass, which when playing at night gets super moist which has made for games played in the trenches. The MCG is a cricket ground and an AFL ground which means a harder surface and shorter grass, so expect game two to be a quicker contest. Maybe it will be too fast to niggle?
NSW have rightfully kept their halves combination in tact with Trent Hodkinson and Mitchell Pearce set to lead the Blues around the park. They have a weapon in Josh Dugan who they can call on to add some x-factor to their attack but NSW looked to be lacking a third ball player. This has worked for the Dragons with Gareth Widdop and Benji Marshall combining beautifully while making the most of Dugan's running game. But Widdop and Marshall spend every training together working on their combination, so they can make up for a lack of an extra pair of smart hands with their understanding.
Both Pearce and Hodkinson are 7's and played like it in game one with what little ball they had. One of them must offer some impact and it's got to be Pearce. Hodkinson has been the focus for a variety of distracting reasons but Pearce has to run the footy, to throw the long cut-out pass, to try something off the cuff, to generally have a go.
It must be said that we really didn't get to see what NSW have up their sleeves in game one. They were camped on their tryline for nearly all of the second half and weren't able to try wide shifts and/or plays that isolated tired QLDers through the middle all that often.
That's why QLD won game one.
I loved Dugan in game one and if NSW can enjoy more possession, Dugan's influence will continue to shine. Dugan has to be put in one on one situations, especially near the tryline where his freakish strength is a handful. Further out, it will be Dugan hunting through the middle as we saw in game one. Offloads and set plays on tackles two-four will give Dugan a chance to make a dent and provide something fresh for QLD to worry about, he'll at least get a quick play the ball which is equally as beneficial for the NSW team. NSW don't have many players who can create a chance from nothing, Dugan is that guy.
Michael Jennings needs to get much more ball in game two because like Dugan, he can spark NSW onto the front foot. Jennings only had nine carries in game one and his quick footwork needs to be used more to ask more questions of Justin Hodges.
While Paul Gallen's return may be inspiring for NSW, it won't be his toughness nor his mongrel that will help NSW win. Josh Jackson is a plain-Jane workhorse whereas Gallen does it all, he offloads, he'll get into first receiver and he'll use his footwork through the middle to make life difficult for QLD's forwards. It's odd, but I think Gallen's presence will help NSW greatly on attack and he could be that missing cog to make their attack click because you can never really prepare for what he's going to do.
There's a number of key players for NSW, but none more important than Gallen and Robbie Farah. As with Gallen, Farah's importance doesn't lay with his leadership role, it's what he does out of dummy half which will give NSW the best chance of victory, along with Gallen's spice through the middle. Gallen rarely gets a slow play the ball, so Farah will be hunting after Gallen while Farah must also be eager to run the footy which shouldn't be too difficult a task as there's enough beastly forwards for NSW to make good metres and play the ball swiftly.
Farah has to keep the likes of Nate Myles, Cameron Smith and Matt Scott busy, making plenty of repeat efforts around the ruck. Whether that's him running the ball or running with a Blues player in support, NSW have to work QLD over up the guts.
QLD are comfortable in their defensive systems enough that NSW will struggle to play around QLD, if they attack the edges I expect QLD to be able to stop them. NSW's best chance is through the middle with their big boppers and Gallen who have lots of skill to match their size and power, while Farah's the best man to make the most of this.
This is where the biggest question for the Maroons sits; can their forwards back up their monster effort in game one? I am honestly not sure as they were near perfect in going to battle against a big NSW pack. What we did see in game one is that QLD are much better equipped to handle NSW's forwards with Josh McGuire looking like he's been perfectly constructed for Origin and Jacob Lillyman adding some muscle off the bench. These two play a low key crucial role because they come on at the same time as someone like David Klemmer and NSW's second wave are able to keep up the good work of their starters.
It will take a similar performance from Myles and Scott to what they dished up in game one, they charged every hit up and made tough metres look easy. I don't think they will need to be as good as they were, because I think QLD will look to play a bit more footy and push the ball when they can, but they can only do so if Myles and Scott are doing their job in the middle.
Greg Inglis was very quiet in game one but that was because NSW did a great job defensively on him. It's the same memo for game two with NSW trying their best to shut him down while QLD look for ways to get him involved. QLD are lucky that they don't rely on Inglis as they have a host of players who can offer a threat.
The QLD outside backs were very strong in game one, it was a point of difference for QLD as their backs got through plenty of work which helped their forwards immensely.
Daly Cherry-Evans moves into the halves, but game two will be about Jonathan Thurston. I expect Thurston to do most of the controlling, which suits DCE's game as he looks at his best when he runs the footy and plays what's in front of him. Thurston will be the man who decides what options they take late in the set and he will look to get his hands on the footy as much as possible. I really enjoyed the work of Michael Morgan off the bench in game one; he's quick, big and has the skills of a half which makes him the perfect 14. He also shares a great combination with Thurston and I'd love to see these two combine a lot when Morgan is on the field.
Game two, for QLD, will be about Thurston ... and Cameron Smith. They are both masters of their craft in terms of how they attack, but they are both masters at controlling a game of rugby league and they have done so in the Origin arena time and time again. With no Cooper Cronk who is also a master of this, Smith and Thurston must put QLD on their shoulders.
Who will win? I'm going with the Maroons. NSW look to have got themselves a bit too wound up about game one, whether it be about the niggle or the dramas surrounding squad selections and we saw that QLD are much more comfortable with their culture and systems than NSW are.
NSW do obviously have a great chance, but they will need to put in a much different sort of performance than what they showed in game one. It starts with Aaron Woods and James Tamou who were great in the opening stanza of game one, but NSW must play some footy on the back of their forwards who can dominate QLD. NSW have to take the game to QLD, they've got to be the instigator, they must test QLD across the park and see if QLD can keep up.
NSW, play fast, play tough and throw caution to the wind.