Almighty NRL Finals Week One Preview
Bird and Sharks, can they pounce on a weary Rabbitohs side?
Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm
Match Ups - The Centres. Having Michael Jennings and Blake Ferguson as your centre pairing basically means that the Roosters have a threat on either side of the field. Both are tough to defend against for different reasons as Jennings has speed and subtle footwork while Ferguson is huge and can run; a lethal combo. They come up against a far less glamorous centre pairing for the Storm as Will Chambers and Kurt Mann don't quite have the same level of x-factor but are very good at their jobs and thrive in their combinations with their team mates. Both teams are good defensively, so look for them to hit the edges early which will offer these four centres the chance to show us what they've got and how they plan on stopping each other.
I've also got Jake Friend vs Cameron Smith as a Match Up as many people see Friend as Smith's Maroons deputy; we'll see how close or far away Friend is from being in Smith's realm. But they are also key figures for their respective teams as Friend has shown improvements in his kicking game and needs to run the footy on the back of his big forwards. For Smith, I think this game will be similar to Origin in that Smith will need to stop a huge forward pack which is where his wrestle/niggle ability will be a factor. That and his ability to control the game because he'll be looking to ensure the Roosters are coming off their own tryline as much as possible.
Key Men - James Maloney has the spotlight on him for the Roosters. With no Mitchell Pearce, Maloney will play the dominant hand in the halves and will have good support from Jackson Hastings who has impressed, but Maloney will be that guy. Equally as capable of hitting a hole as he is feeding a big forward or a Roger Tuivasa-Sheck/Michael Jennings, Maloney does it all and will be under fire from a Storm team who know how important he is.
The spotlight will also be on Cameron Munster who has improved with each game in the NRL and is now a vital cog in the Storm's attack.
Keep An Eye On - The Roosters forwards are either huge, or they resemble cannonballs which makes them a beastly prospect but the Storm have unearthed their own behemoth. Nelson Asofa-Solomona has quickly risen through the Storm's ranks after moving from Wellington and with his size, athleticism and off-loading ability he could the man to catch your eye.
Verdict - Storm <12. A ballsy pick, for sure but I've got the Storm sticking with the Roosters in the grind and putting pressure on the Roosters, something that has rarely happened recently. The subtlety of the Storm will get the nod over power of the Roosters.
Bulldogs vs Dragons
Match Ups - There's not much else in this game besides the two forward packs thanks to vastly contrasting styles and personnel. The Bulldogs will start the game with Aidan Tolman and James Graham, two solid props who add a bit of skill but are all about effort before the likes of Sam Kasiano, Shaun Lane and David Klemmer enter the arena. Throw in Frank Pritchard, Greg Eastwood and Josh Jackson and you have a forward pack who will intimidate, they'll be out to physically impose themselves on the Dragons and on the surface you would expect them to do so.
When the Dragons have been at their best this season however, their forwards make up for their lack size and general agro with grit and skill. There's this unity in the Dragons forwards, like they know they aren't the biggest pack but that if they all rip in then they can still pose a threat and hold their own. Leeson Ah Mau has enjoyed a career-best season with nice footwork at the line being his staple, Trent Merrin is one of the best locks in the game while blokes such as Mike Cooper, Jake Marketo, Ben Creagh, Mark Ioane and Jack De Belin are all capable job-doers. There's some oomph in Tyson Frizell as well, ain't that swell.
Key Men - While Benji Marshall will need to be at his absolute best with Gareth Widdop out injured, I've got with Josh Dugan who gives the Dragons a dosage of unpredictability on attack. Dugan's capable of helping his forwards out with strong kick-returns and hit-ups, while his ability to break the line and support ball-carriers will be crucial in making big metres for the Dragons. If Dugan is ripping the Doggies up, making breaks and all that then we could see some tired Doggies struggling to keep up.
Damien Cook has thrust into the spotlight, but only after stepping up nicely in the few games he's enjoyed leading into the Finals. Cook's a livewire and his running game in combination with the Bulldogs' forwards rolling up the guts could keep the Dragons on the back foot. Cook is young and inexperienced so he'll also need to keep it simple and not overplay his hand; just run when you see a chance and shovel the ball to the play-makers.
Keep An Eye On - Peter Mata'utia has low key been one of the Dragons' best performers this season at right centre. Not only that, but I've seen he and Dugan switch positions in specific plays which keeps their funky. We might not see that, but a massive game in week one of the Finals is the culmination of strong season for Mata'utia and it'll be lovely to see him go well.
Broncos vs Cowboys
Match Up - Both Darius Boyd and Lachlan Coote are two of the best fullbacks at setting up other blokes; they have mastered the art of the final pass. That obviously makes them vital to their respective team's attack moves as they are able to sum up the situation in front of them quickly and make the right decision more often than not. Boyd doesn't quite have the well rounded skills of Coote who oozes the skills of a half and his left boot will be a key weapon for the Cowboys.
Another interesting Match Up will be the middle men; the lads who defend in the middle. That means Sam Thaiday, Adam Blair and Corey Parker for the Broncos and Matt Scott, James Tamou and Jason Taumalolo, as you can see there's plenty of quality here. They are all tough buggers as well but the Broncos trio are more rugged compared to the Cowboys who pack more of a punch so it'll be fun to watch the two styles go toe to toe all night long up the guts.
Key Men - I'm going to take one from left field here for the Broncos with young Kodi Nikorima set to play a crucial role off the bench. Andrew McCullough is a legit NRL hooker, but he lacks that little bit of razzle dazzle that is sometimes needed which is why I reckon Wayne Bennett has given Nikorima plenty of game time off the bench this season. Nikorima might replace McCullough or he might replace a big bopper which would mean McCullough and Nikorima playing together, either way, Nikorima will come on and give the Broncos a touch of x-factor with his speed and skill.
Jonathan Thurston is alright, he goes okay but it's all about Michael Morgan this week who returns to the Cowboys side after missing a few games thanks to injury. Morgan and Coote have played a important role this season, which is partly why Thurston has been such a match-winner as he has two lieutenants alongside him. Morgan is a well rounded half and has thrived on the Cowboys right edge this season with his running game his strongest attribute.
Verdict - Broncos <12. Boy oh boy, what a game we have here. I'm rolling deep with the Broncos who are a great defensive team but also have two halves who have gone to another level together.
Sharks vs Rabbitohs
Match Up - Jack Bird and Luke Keary are both youngins' who find themselves thrust into high pressure situations with their respective clubs. They are similar in that they love to run the footy, which is always a good attribute for young halves to have but they will need to execute their core half duties to near perfection in this game. Bird's halves partner is Jeff Robson, a solid half but the sort of half who doesn't offer much more than kicking and passing which is where Bird will have to step in and add classy touches. Keary will be playing behind a forward pack that without George Burgess could be dominated and life won't be as easy for Keary as it has been. Both these lads will be under huge pressure, so it'll be fun.
Key Men - Part of the reason why the Sharks can carry Robson in the halves is because Wade Graham takes on a lot of play-making duties down their left edge. I see Graham as the perfect edge forward as he's big enough to handle himself against giants, he's a great passer and has a quality kicking game. I have come to love watching Graham play and personally, I hope he shines on a big stage like this.
Greg Inglis is always going to be a key man for the Rabbits, but all of a sudden the Rabbitohs don't quite have the beastly forward pack they assembled. Inglis will not only have to do all of his normal fullback antics, but he'll need to take a lot of tough hit-ups as well where his speed and size earns him a quick play the ball to help his forward pack out. This will be a big ask of Inglis who will more than likely get some sort of pain-numbing love before the game for his bung knee.
Keep An Eye On - I've touched on it, but damn this Rabbitohs forward pack just doesn't look that threatening. They have slid down the 'beastly rankings' at the same time that the Sharks have welcomed back Andrew Fifita who will come off the bench and add something fresh to a Sharks forward pack that have grafted their way into the Finals. I like that Fifita will come off the bench because Chris Heighington has been immense in his absence and Fifita will be asked to rip in once the fire of the opening 10-20 minutes has settled.
Verdict - Sharks >12. I'm all the way off the Rabbitohs' wagon while it's been fun to watch a Sharks team who appear to be limited in what they can do, but they have settled on a style that everyone knows their role in. Add in that Fifita lad and it's a win to the Sharks.