2016 Four Nations: Kiwis vs Kangaroos Final Preview
This is Carlaw Park.
Here we are once again, pondering the fortunes of Aotearoa's Kiwis without a stable halves combination ahead of a game against Australia's Kangaroos. It feels as though any Test match against those Aussies features this conundrum and that conundrum has led David Kidwell to name a broad squad for the Four Nations final, allowing Kangaroos coach Mal Meninga a few different options to think about while everything about Meninga's Kangaroos is laid out in the open.
We know exactly how the Kangaroos will line up and we know exactly how they'll play. That's the mastery in Meninga's influence on this Kangaroos side as he's not only brought together young and old to combine for a greater cause, there's a crystal clear identity in how the Kangaroos play their footy which makes it easy for every team member to contribute.
This then leads us to how Australia will play and win the Four Nations final. When they defeated the Kiwis a few weeks ago, the Kangaroos were able to roll down the field with ease as a dynamic group of outside backs got their sets of six started with big metres and their forwards then stormed on to the footy via quick play-the-balls. A Kangaroos team that consistently finds themselves in 'good ball' - deep in their opponent's half - is always going to score points because they've got the slickest spine in the business and an outside back quartet that are best described simply as 'weapons'.
If the Kangaroos don't quite find the metres they want, then Jonathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smtih kick to the corners and an eager defensive line ensures that their opponents (the Kiwis) are struggling to make metres themselves. Led by Smith in the middle of the field, Australia are as good as it gets for an international team at slowing the game down via some wrestle and when these teams last met, Aotearoa were unable to implement any sort of wrestle, making life extremely difficult as they were consistently chasing the Aussies.
There really isn't much more to the Aussies; get into an attacking position and let Thurston, Cronk, Smith and Darius Boyd weave their wands. If Australia are allowed to do this, they'll win, simple.
Compare that to the Kiwis (compare how professional either team's team list on Twitter look for starters) who have named a big ol' squad, headlined by uncertainty and that same uncertainty filters through to what the Kiwis will serve up. We are yet to see this Kiwis group play anything near their best footy, with their best performance coming against England. Considering there are new faces in the squad and coaching staff, that's understandable and while one side of that equation will leave us to wonder how many points Australia will put on Aotearoa, it also offers some hope that the stars align after weeks on the training pitch instead of just a few training sessions.
Leading the uncertainty, Kidwell has named both Tohu Harris and Te Maire Martin in the squad. I'd love to see Martin get a run, offering a genuine play-making option in conjunction to Shaun Johnson and the confusion around his possible selection could ensure that Australia are unable to be as relentless in their running at Martin as they could be. That's the risk though as Australia hammer the Kiwis halves with the likes of Boyd Cordner, Matt Gillett and Tyson Frizell out on the edges and if Martin's playing, then Australia have two targets to run at; Cordner will be a nightmare for Johnson.
Harris is skillful and has the ability to be a Kiwis legend, but playing Harris will allow the Kangaroos to load up on Johnson as they have done in the past. Countering that is how good Johnson played against England when Leuluai was off the field, although England aren't anywhere close to Australia in the pressure they put on Johnson.
What Harris does offer, is size ... and footwork. Harris will handle himself up against Matt Gillett and there'll be no weakness defensively out on that edge, while Harris will add another big body for the Kiwis to use as they go about rampaging through the middle with pure power. That's the Kiwis blueprint and Harris' presence only enhances this, he'll chop back through the middle with his footwork when he's not slipping passes.
Having Harris in the halves will also allow Manu Ma'u to slot in on the left edge, again adding another explosive ball-carrier into the mix. The Kiwis forwards were close to being non-factors in the last game against Australia, so bolstering that forward pack and expecting an improved performance offers hope. If Harris is in the halves, expect Jesse Bromwich, Adam Blair, Ma'u, Kevin Proctor and Jason Taumalolo to make up the starting forward pack with Lewis Brown (maybe Te Maire Martin? Hmm...), Greg Eastwood, Martin Taupau and either James Fisher-Harrs or Joseph Tapine on the bench.
Aotearoa's outside backs were put in the shade by Valentine Holmes and Blake Ferguson last time around, which has led to Kidwell leave out Jason Nightingale and Gerard Beale. Neither of those two are noted for their running of the footy, especially when compared to David Fusitua and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak as they are both bigger, faster and more aggressive with their carries. Fusitua and Watene-Zelezniak could both make strong cases to be included for selection and I'd be happy either way; the speed of Watene-Zelezniak around the ruck could give him a sniff though.
Two players who I will be keeping close tabs on during this game are Issac Luke and Jordan Kahu with their performances capable of having a major influence on the outcome. The way Luke runs the footy out of dummy half is a perfect reflection of the Kiwis blueprint as he's all power and as long as he's scootin' then the Kiwis have a great chance because that's either coming on the back of, or followed by carries from Taumalolo, Taupau, Bromwich etc.
Kahu's importance only increases with the absence of Leuluai. There's more play-making that Kahu must do and if Harris is starting in the halves, expect to see Kahu pop up plenty on that left edge where he can make a good pass or lay a threatening grubber down. There's scope for this to be a breakout game for Kahu in which he showcases a variety of skills, adding classy touches to the grunt of the forwards on top of his safe work at fullback.
Australia will stick to their grind, their relentless footy in which they simply ask the Kiwis to keep coming off their own try-line and wait for a chance to unleash their structure attack. We know that and we know that if they are allowed to settle into this scheme, they'll be too good. The Kiwis on the other hand, are all about speed and footwork around the ruck with a touch of the sublime and we haven't seen them execute their blueprint yet. I'm yet to see Bromwich and Taumalolo, the two best forwards in the world combine with a dominant display along with Taupau off the bench. That's why I'm curiously optimisitic.