2016 State Of Origin, Game One: Preview
Da Klemma
Having done a few of these State Of Origin previews now, it's the same old yarn really; where do I start? It's State Of Origin footy, this means that there are interesting battles in every area of the field and these previews are always tricky as I try not to preview every minor detail (you got 2 hours of your life to give?) while trying to not ignore minor details that could quickly become major details on the park.
The past few years have seen some sort of blueprint laid down by both teams. New South Wales' success has come thanks to a super aggressive forward pack that combines size and power to ruffle Queensland's feathers. Queensland have some of the best players to grace our planet and much of their success stems from that, they've also shown that while their forward pack may lack the size of NSW's pack, they can still do a job.
In very simple terms, State Of Origin in the past few years has looked like this...
NSW's big, powerful forward pack vs Queensland's gritty pack.
NSW's good spine vs Queensland's great spine.
And I don't think we can expect much different for game one. What NSW coach Laurie Daley has done is he's added some spice into the NSW team via Matt Moylan and Dylan Walker, two players who can produce the sublime. In Moylan, NSW have a fullback who will provide a slick link between the halves and outside backs which differs to how NSW have played with Josh Dugan at fullback, even Jarryd Hayne wasn't quite as crisp with his passing as Moylan is.
Moylan's presence at fullback will allow James Maloney and Adam Reynolds to focus more on controlling the game, instead of having to offer up their own x-factor. A lot has been made about Reynolds' kicking game and it's a great asset for NSW, however having Moylan there to take on some responsibility with the footy will allow Reynolds to solely focus on kicking and passing. Last year, with Dugan being a runner and without a light-footed utility on their bench, NSW's halves struggled to control and offer some attacking impetus, but with Moylan one of the more well-rounded fullbacks in the NRL, Reynolds can worry more about his job, his strengths.
The other player who offers the funk that NSW desperately needed is Walker and the backlash against his selection was confusing. Daley said that Walker has big game experience which put Walker just ahead of Jack Bird and fair play, I'd also suggest that Walker is quicker than Bird, better footwork and perhaps more skillful.
Coming off the bench, Walker will be injected into the game late in the first half and at some stage in the second half. This will likely come in conjunction with the injection of James Tamou, David Klemmer and Andrew Fifita, three props who eat metres up for breakfast but also offer an offload. That's perfect for Walker as he'll get in the middle of the park and sniff around for an opening, he's quick enough to make a slight opening into a major opportunity and he's also got enough skill to do some ball-playing in combination with Maloney, Reynolds and Moylan.
Will Walker replace Robbie Farah? That's the big question as I'd like to see Walker come on for a big bopper and give NSW a different look, a more mobile look that can run Queensland around and roll down field with quick play-the-balls.
With Paul Gallen and Greg Bird set to start in the middle, the rotation of the middle forwards will be interesting for NSW. There's no need for Gallen to roll through another 80 minute, 200m epic and Bird will be far more effective in two shorter stints where he can influence the game with his skill and mobility. We'll likely see Tamou and Klemmer come on first, around the 20 minute mark and then Fifita will join the action later on in the half, possibly at the same time as Walker.
That's NSW's strength; big forwards storming through the middle. Once again, Queensland will look to counter that with a smaller, but just as strong middle presence of Matt Scott, Nate Myles and Corey Parker while Josh McGuire, Aidan Guerra and Josh Papalii will come off the bench. Myles and Parker are expert defenders through the middle, so is McGuire and obviously Scott ain't too shabby either, with their experience and the wrestling ability of Cameron Smith, they should be able to contain NSW's big boys.
Queensland's struggles could come with the footy as they lack the size to really make a dent in NSW's defensive line. In saying that, I've seen the likes of Myles and Parker rise up to State Of Origin level and put in immense shifts in that Maroons jersey so there's no real reason to doubt them, plus I don't think that they'll really go toe-to-toe with the Blues big boppers. Look for offloads from Queensland's forwards to move NSW's forwards around and also look for Queensland to hit their edges, where they have Matt Gillett in great form and Sam Thaiday relishing more game time on the edge with Brisbane.
Either Guerra or Papalii will likely be put in the middle, with the other to get minutes on an edge. I'm not too fussed who does what here, I will say that Papalii has been consistently ruthless on Canberra's edge. Papalii would give Queensland a powerful threat on the edge and this depends on Queensland's game plan as they can use Papalii in the middle to counter NSW's big boppers, or they could head down the edges with Papalii out wider.
Working in Queensland's favour, helping them get down the field are the inclusions of Corey Oates and Dane Gagai. Gagai had an amazing debut last year and was as busy as he was effective in carrying the footy while Oates is a forward playing on the wing, throw in the speed of Justin O'Neill and some Greg Inglis fellow and they should be starting their sets in decent position, ideally with quick play-the-balls for their forwards to run off.
In Origin, you rarely get an outside back absolutely dominating their opposition in that position as they are all of the highest quality so it's hard to really go too deep in analysis out wide. I do prefer Queensland's outside back group though and I'm always intrigued in how Queensland best use Inglis and his freakish talents. Inglis plays left centre with Jonathan Thurston playing down the left; look out for slick set-plays to get Inglis in a bit of space, especially 30-40m out from NSW's line where Inglis has a bit more space, get that fend out, draw in a few defenders and set Oates free.
Michael Morgan has been here before and since his last Origin outing he's won an NRL Grand Final. This has been licking my lips in anticipation as to Morgan will play and the influence he'll have on the game, more responsibility perhaps? Morgan has the tools to add some funk either down the left (where he was excellent last year) or down the right (where he plays for Cowboys) and when he's on the field, Queensland will essentially play with two fullback with Morgan and Boyd on either side of the ruck, sweeping out the back.
As long as Queensland have Thurston, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith in their team, I can't really go against them. Of course, NSW can come out, throw the footy around and bring the ruckus which will put them in a great position, but I've seen Queensland absorb and shut down NSW's physical threat a few too many times to not back them.
People don't sleep on Smith's greatness, they do sleep on how influential Smith is without the footy in the middle. Sydney generally serves up a slower track, more suited to NSW's up the guts style of play and Queensland have consistently relied on Smith's ability to slow NSW down in the ruck - legally and illegally - to get on top. Origin footy is perfect for Smith because the officials ease up on the whistle, giving Smith a few more seconds to go to work and if Queensland are to win this, Smith will have to put in another mammoth shift in the trenches.
Thurston and Cronk are not only experts in turning the other team around, they are experts at running creative plays at the right time, using the right players. That sort of clinical execution is what gives Queensland the edge, they won't be able to influence the game as play-making wizards if their forward pack ain't on top, or at least maintaining parity with NSW's pack though.