2016 State Of Origin, Game Two: Preview
There's no better footy stadium in Australasia than Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium and there's no tougher task in footy than what is facing New South Wales tomorrow night. After a gritty encounter in Sydney a few weeks ago, NSW head up to Suncorp trying to fight off the memories of last year's game three demolition. Not a whole lot is working in NSW's favour for game two, although some forced changes could be strangely beneficial.
For starters, NSW and Laurie Daley will be forced to play more footy, to attack Queensland more and to play a more expansive game. This has been my biggest issue with NSW under Daley's guidance as they've constantly opted for toughness and grit over skill and razzle dazzle, which is great and all but they are coming up against a team that is led by the three best game-managers in the sport right now. This didn't quite work in game one, so it's probably not going to work up in Queensland.
A few injuries should push NSW further along this path and this is where the hope for NSW and their fans should sit. Dylan Walker will start at centre in place of Josh Morris, with Walker offering a far more lively presence that will give NSW a boost of energy. You can spot the similarities between Walker and Michael Jennings, not only in their body shape and size but their speed/footwork combination. Morris was a solid option, so solid that dropping him for Walker would have been pretty crazy, but an injury to Morris means Walker gets an opportunity and suddenly NSW have two centres who are legit attacking threats.
Boyd Cordner's injury opened the door for Wade Graham and we know what happened there. Graham's spot was taken by Tyson Frizell who will come off the bench, this is far less about Frizell and much more about Greg Bird starting on NSW's left edge. Like Graham, Bird is a highly skilled player who can do a decent job in the halves at NRL level and seeing Bird come off the bench or start for NSW through the middle has epitomized their desire for toughness over skill; Bird has been drawn into making tackles and hitting it up, without any freedom to provide x-factor.
Usually NSW have gone with edge forwards like Ryan Hoffman and Beau Scott, who tend to run good lines and maybe pop an offload or two out but lack any creativity. Bird can throw a cut-out pass, he can put a grubber in and he's got a bit of footwork as well and it's a totally different package to that of Boyd Cordner.
Both forward packs cancel each other out, if anything you've gotta give the nod to NSW's forward pack as they have a potential roll-on far superior to that of Queensland's. The difference that NSW will need to make for game two is to hit their edges earlier and with far better execution than they did in game one. A lot of this stems from the struggles of James Maloney and Adam Reynolds, who looked stuck in a game plan and lacked any ability to play what they saw in front of them ... when they did, Maloney set up Cordner's try.
Reynolds is NSW's best controller, with both his kicking game and his classic halfback duties of getting his blokes in the right spots for an attacking play. I'm optimistic here as Reynolds, Maloney and Matt Moylan have a game and another camp together now, so they should be a lot better for that time on the training field and I'd suggest that Reynolds to keep it extremely simple; get to the right areas and feed Maloney or Moylan.
It starts with Reynolds and his ability to steer NSW around, it finishes with Moylan though. Moylan was solid in game one (with good and bad moments) and he's definitely shown that he's tough enough for this arena, what we need to see from Moylan now are his silky touches that ooze class. Whether it's Maloney or Reynolds passing to Moylan, Penrith's fullback needs to be given the footy with two options to work with on an edge. In game one, NSW barely got to their edges and they need to level-up here to allow Moylan to offer a running threat as well as trusting his ability to set up the likes of Walker, Jennings, Josh Mansour and Blake Ferguson.
NSW will once again roll out a powerful bench and we've seen NSW enjoy periods of dominance through the middle as much as we've seen Cronk and Thurston execute a play perfectly. Aaron Woods, Paul Gallen and James Tamou start will beastly carries, then David Klemmer and Andrew Fifita bring the ruckus off the bench. That's nothing new folks and has been a staple of NSW's play in recent years, helping them win a series once, while not being enough to upset Queensland's class in other series'.
That there's funk on this bench is new. Jack Bird is vastly different to Dylan Walker in that he can genuinely play through the middle, like Michael Morgan does and while Walker is all-silk, Bird is a rugged footy player who just makes things happen. Daley had better use Bird far more than Walker was used and this sums up the situation for NSW as Bird's gotta get good minutes, or else they haven't really given it everything they've got. The ability of Bird to defend in the middle will likely see him get more minutes that Walker did and while we'll probably see Bird give Robbie Farah a spell, it would ruffle a few feathers if Bird played alongside Farah.
With Bird and Farah in the middle, there'd be some spice and energy for NSW that could help break down Queensland's stingey defence. That's probably just a dream though as Daley has shown time and time again how conservative he is - how successful has that been?
Queensland, what about Queensland? Well not a whole lot. They've only lost Nate Myles and he has been replaced by his clone in Josh McGuire, with Jacob Lillyman offering some punch off the bench.
We know what Queensland do, there's not a whole lot here that I can tell you which I haven't already told you. They execute attacking plays with precision, they've got a group of outside backs who do more than their fair-share of work and they have wizards in key positions that know exactly what to do in various situations of a footy games.
We've even seen Queensland counter a big, mobile, aggressive and skillful NSW forward pack numerous times. Each Origin game has me wondering how Queensland's forward pack of veterans and/or youngsters who aren't as big as their opponents, will be able to stop NSW's forwards and they just get the job done. All Queensland's forwards need to do is maintain parity with NSW's pack and lay some sort of platform, from which the wizards (Smith, Thurston, Cronk and Darius Boyd) can roll through their playbook.
As it's in Brisbane, the Maroons will be eager to play a more expansive style of footy, at a quicker tempo. Offloads will certainly help, but keep an eye on Queensland running a play just to get a quick-play-the ball and to then sweep across the field where they'll isolate the likes of Reynolds, Maloney and Walker with Thurston or Cronk dishing up a lesson in play-making. Queensland will shift the footy from side to side, their desire to play up-tempo/expansive footy will then be rewarded late in either half, possibly with Michael Morgan on the field.
Can't really go past Queensland to win this game, which won't stop be observing with interest how NSW approach this game. They have the opportunity to break the shackles and to really test Queensland's defence, this is their best chance of winning game two but I've got a feeling that if Queensland play this game how they want to, NSW won't have much say in the result.