2016 Grand Final Fever: How Will Melbourne Storm Win The GF?
You'll see plenty of this on Sunday night.
While Cronulla Sharks are extremely well-equipped for success in the 2016 version of the NRL with their speed and skill throughout their roster, Melbourne Storm are also nicely built for success in a slightly different way.
When pondering the Storm, we need to remember that this is a team who under the guidance of Craig Bellamy, Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk have slightly switched up how they play their footy. They still rely heavily on structured attacking plays and the patience to grind away with their opponent before pouncing on an opportunity, however there is now a reliance on a splash of razzle dazzle via offloads, short passing and fantastic footwork.
Some people don't like the structure and prefer plenty of razzle dazzle, 'off the cuff' sort of footy but I have come to appreciate the way the Storm go about their business. This is a whole lot easier when the Storm have embraced the way the NRL's style of footy has gone down and with the Storm ranked 5th for tackle busts this season, 10th in offloads and 4th in line breaks, it's hard to argue that the Storm haven't found the perfect mix of structure and flair. I actually think that they are the best team at incorporating flair and creativity into their structure as many teams attack with a similar structure, yet the Storm role out the funkiest plays from that structure.
Just on the offloads; the Storm are ranked 10th and it's important to note that of the nine teams ahead of them in offloads, the Panthers (1st), Sharks (2nd), Bulldogs (4th), Titans (6th) and Raiders (7th) made the Finals. And perhaps the Sharks are the only team to really make the most of those offloads.
Cronulla will look to offload and shift the footy wide, from within their structure and from offloads. Melbourne however will rely on their metres through the middle of the field to get them into positions from where they can fire their shots. The key thing about the way Melbourne play and how they will win the Grand Final, is that their blokes in the middle of the field do a great job in not only making metres but also working over defenders. As you would expect, this starts with Cameron Smith sussing out who is defending where around the ruck and making a decision from that.
Smith is crucial here as the Storm rarely venture outside the middle third when moving down the field and it is Smith who operates as the key play-maker in that regard. Smith's running game may not be as powerful as dynamic as others, however when he runs he makes metres and he's been doing that for a decade, so everyone knows how effective this running game is.
This not only comes in the form of Smith running forward, he'll also run a few metres to either side and his options - scootin' forward, kicking, passing from the ruck, running then passing - plus the respect the opposition needs to show all of those options means that there's always an opportunity to probe at a defender around the ruck who has over-committed in some way.
Melbourne are so effective at rollin' down field thanks to Smith's variety at dummy half, but that they have four players in the top-20 for run metres also helps out a fair bit (Cronulla have two; Andrew Fifita and Paul Gallen). Jesse Bromwich (7th) is the best prop in the NRL and he churns through metres easily, while Tohu Harris (14th) has stepped up big time this season and is a threat starting out on the left edge but often cutting back in-field with his footwork. The key with Bromwich and Harris, is their footwork as their ability to step opposition forwards gets them a few extra metres every carry. Throw in the size of Jordan McLean, the workhorse nature of Dale Finucane and Kenny Bromwich's agility and power off the bench and the Storm always seem to have a forward making metres.
Interestingly, the other two Storm players in the top-20 for run metres are Marika Koroibete (8th) and Cameron Munster (10th). Some teams don't have anyone in that top-20, some teams only have one bloke and some teams only have big forwards in that top-20; Melbourne have four blokes and two of them are outside backs. Not only do the Storm pump the middle with their big forwards, they have excellent service from nippy outside backs and to further reinforce the point about the threat Melbourne pose through the middle, their outside backs do a lot of their work out of dummy half.
Jack Bird leads the Sharks outside backs for dummy half runs with 27, Valentine Holmes isn't too far behind with 25 while Sosaia Feki has 15, Ricky Leutele 4 and Ben Barba 11.
Cameron Munster has 39, Will Chambers has 32, Suliasi Vunivalu has 28, Cheyse Blair has 8 while Koroibete is more used steaming on to the footy a pass wide of the ruck with 11 dummy half runs.
Melbourne's outside backs have combined for 118 dummy half runs this season, while Cronulla have 81. It's this sort of variety that makes trying to slow down Melbourne through the middle so difficult as the have Smith's craftiness and quick outside backs working out of dummy half, as well as a big forward pack led by the best prop in the NRL.
All of this simply gets the Storm down the right end of the field and their work through the middle third will win them the Grand Final. This will either put them down Cronulla's end and within striking distance to run through their creative play-book, or it allows Melbourne to make enough metres from deep in their own territory to get a good kick in and peg Cronulla within their own 20m consistently. The attacking structure that gets them their points and their ability to grind away with teams without giving up an opportunity via poor defence, is only possibly because they are such a great team at making metres in the middle.
Cronulla will obviously know this and will do their best to stop Melbourne's roll down the field. Melbourne have variety though in how they plug away through the middle and it's their ability hit the footy up, scoot out of dummy half or cut back against the grain against a weary defender that enables them success up the guts.