Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: A Statistical Deep-Dive Into Non-Kieran Foran Related Improvements
Sound the alarm!
Tell ya mum!
And then cry.
Kieran Foran appears to have sealed a move to the Bulldogs for next season, nothing is official just yet but linking up with Des Hasler was the most logical situation.
We don't need to roll through the yarn about this being perfectly fine and that Foran has done absolutely nothing wrong by the Warriors. Those crying foul about how Foran has treated the Warriors are themselves looking for attention; Foran made it clear from the outset of his desire to by close to his whanau and not once did he talk up the long-term prospects of being a Warrior.
The only jokers who could possibly be called out for their actions are the Aotearoa Warriors themselves as they signed Foran knowing how this would likely end up. Even then, all that the Warriors risked in this situation was stunting the development of Ata Hingano.
They didn't risk any cash because Foran was nice enough to accept less cash.
They didn't risk any good vibes because Foran only enhances the good vibes and has brought a few more people to Mt Smart.
They didn't risk any recruitment or free agency mess because there was clarity in this all along. C'mon now, obviously Stephen Kearney and Jim Doyle have plans in place for 2018 and beyond should Foran leave. The track record of Kearney and Doyle suggests that they are not idiots.
You can hold on to some hope that the NRL's weird (and all-round extremely stupid free agency) 10-day 'cooling off' period could see the Warriors talk Foran around. Do that until it all becomes official and when this move becomes official, don't stress because as I've said many times this season: at least the Warriors have Kieran Foran for a season and that could lead to some sort of success.
What I find strange in all of this - thus offering me a different angle to a topic I've yarned about so much - has been the hype surrounding Foran's influence on the Warriors since he's returned. Australian media has led this narrative, obviously followed by dumb kiwi media who can't form their own opinions. How many times have you heard about how Foran straightens up the Warriors attack?
I know Foran makes a footy team better, don't get me twisted about that and Foran has been and is one of the best halves in the NRL. However improvements that the Warriors have made this season have been wide-spread and not isolated to what Foran does, or the influence he has. Foran came in and helped the Warriors beat Gold Coast and Parramatta at Mt Smart; Parramatta are 3-4 and Gold Coast are 1-6.
As I highlighted when Foran scored the match-winner against Parramatta, his short side assault started with Issac Luke and probably wouldn't have been possible without Luke's little dart down the short-side, luring in a marker and then putting Foran into space.
Foran isn't responsible for the Warriors improving the metre-eating. Last season the Warriors averaged 8.80m/per-carry and this season they are up over 9m/per-carry, thanks to the likes of James Gavet and Jacob Lillyman playing like their lives depend on it - because they are off-contract. The Warriors forward pack averaged more metres/per-carry last week against the 'massive' Canberra forward pack, without Ben Matulino, and they've been reasonably impressive this season, without Ben Matulino.
Gavet played 10 games and 294 minutes last season, averaging 9.31m/per-carry. This season Gavet has played four games straight after earning a starting spot and he's already played 168 minutes, averaging 9.57m/per-carry. Kearney is the bloke who made a bold decision to drop Albert Vete who has long been touted as a long-term Warriors prop and leader, promoting Gavet and Gavet's returning the favour.
Lillyman has gone from averaging 8.83m/per-carry last season to 9.84m/per-carry this season.
Let that simmer in your loins.
Last season Simon Mannering was the MVP, thanks to all that tackling he did. Last season he averaged 7.97m/per-carry (in an MVP season!) and now he's averaging 8.37m/per-carry.
Issac Luke may be making less dummy half runs (6.15dhr/per-game last season vs 5.28 this season) however there's vast improvement in his effiecieny with his runs as he's jumped from averaging 8.42m/per-carry to 9.77m/per-carry.
Ryan Hoffman's future is unclear, but he has also improved dramatically under Kearney. Hoffman averaged 8.57m/per-carry last season and he's now charging on to the footy, averaging 9.66m/per-carry. Throw in more tackle busts per-game (0.95 vs 1.57) and that Hoffman's improvements in these two stats have come with less carries (12.91 vs 11).
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck only played seven games last season and after six games this season, it makes for a nice gauge of Kearney's influence:
0.25kicks/per-game vs 0.5k/per-game.
9.60m/per-carry vs 10.03m/per-carry.
3.42tackle busts/per-game vs 5tb/per-game.
1.85missed tackles/per-game vs 1.16mt/per-game.
How about Shaun Johnson's improvements?
5.20points/per-game vs 6.28points/per-game.
7.21m/per-carry vs 8.34m/per-carry.
0.75offloads/per-game vs 0.85o/per-game.
0.91errors/per-game vs 0.71e/per-game.
2.62mt/per-game vs 2.42mt/per-game.
Charlie Gubb has gone from averaging 8.33m/per-carry to a powerful 9.96m/per-carry.
The Warriors have made a weird improvement defensively as well. They are missing a similar number of tackles per-game this season (25.70 vs 25) but they are conceding less tries per-game this season (4.20 vs 3.57).
Kearney used the first few games to get the lay of the land and he has refreshed the top-17, not with recruits but with guys who were playing reserve grade footy last season. Albert Vete, Tuimoala Lolohea, Bunty Afoa, Erin Clark and Isaiah Papalii all featured in the opening three/four rounds, only for Kearney to then settle on role-players like Gavet, Ligi Sao, Nathaniel Roache and bringing Blake Ayshford back into the mix on a fluid right edge where he and David Fusitua often switch between centre and wing.
Stats don't tell the story about support runners, decoys, creative attacking plays or kick-chase. Watch the Warriors closely and you'll often find a straight, organised and fast moving kick-chase that has pinned opponents down their own end this season.
The Warriors have gone from 12th in metres last season, up to 6th after seven games this season. Ignoring the 5th ranked metre-eater Wests Tigers - who have missed 247 tackles vs the Warriors' 175 missed tackles - the four teams with more metres than the Warriors are the Broncos, Sharks, Dragons and Cowboys.
The Warriors are 15th in offloads this season.
The Warriors are 13th in points scored this season.
The Warriors are 5th in penalties conceded this season.
The Warriors are 14th in missed tackles this season.
The Warriors are 7th in tries conceded this season.
Forget about Foran and just absorb the influence Kearney has had on numerous individuals in the Warriors. Kearney has come in, settled on a group that he wants in the NRL and then he has established an extremely exciting reserve grade team who are performing well and unearthing low key gems like Chris Satae, building a competitive pool of depth that he can dip into during a long season.
And it's a very long season folks, long enough for Kearney to identify, change and improve. What we have seen after seven rounds is a stripped back offence; not many offloads and not many points. But in typical Kearney fashion, improvements have been made on defence and once Kearney has established that defensive system built on effort, desire and one-percenters, we will see the Warriors' attack start to flourish as they trust their defence and more time perfecting their combination.
Also consider that those offensive stats have been influenced by the the opening four games in which Kearney was obviously sussing players out, before tinkering with his team when Foran returned. Foran isn't responsible for Mannering, Gavet or Luke's improvements, that's thanks to the work of Kearney and each individual and this will ensure that the Warriors enjoy life in the NRL's upper echelon through the next few years.
Foran will help the Warriors win games of footy now and through the rest of this season, let's not overlook how influential Foran could be this season in the development of Ata Hingano either. Foran's making that left edge his own and he will pass the torch on to Hingano, who is even more suited to the left with his left boot. If there was any half in the NRL who I'd want to educate Hingano on playing down the left and playing alongside Johnson, it's Foran.
Kearney has, however, shown how influential he can be and it's Kearney who along with Johnson, Tuivasa-Sheck (fullback deity/Mr 200m) and Luke who will take this club forward. That's still bloody exciting.
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