I'm confused. I'm confused about these Warriors and rather than taking the easy route of hailing the Warriors as a waste of space, my confusion wants something that resembles answers. There aren't answers, because this is about the Warriors after all and no one has ever had the answers - not you, I, any previous coach or player or member of the media. So buckle up and join me as I venture into the abyss of Mt Smart...

Grinding

The opening stanza of the game against St. George perfectly reflected where we are at with the Warriors and this wasn't all that different to what the Warriors have done for much of this season. Shaun Johnson and Kieran Foran both kicked long on a 4th tackle in the first 20 minutes, taking the initiative to pin the Dragons down their end of the field and gain some field position. Johnson's short kicking game was terrible, although he is a skilled long kicker and both he and Foran are not only capable of kicking long, but more importantly they get plenty of height to their kicks which allows their kick-chase more time to move up field.

Under Stephen Kearney, this has been a clear tactic and is often supported by a strong kick-chase. Warriors fans and mainstream media have put themselves in a weird spot by often expressing a desire for their team not to play with the reckless flair that appears to have often let them down and now that the Warriors have gone the opposite route, it's a major issue. As long as there is a clear plan in place, I'm not overly concerned because the Warriors have never really gone all-in on funky attacking footy or being a tough, rugged team in the past five years. They've been caught between doing both, without any idea of what their identity is. Kearney is fairly transparent and that's evident in how the Warriors typically start games.

Where this starts to become a problem is that the Warriors forward pack weren't as good as the Dragons forward pack. I'm not going to compare weight/height of the two forward packs as I trust my eye and I'll be happy for anyone to prove me wrong when I say that the Dragons forward pack were bigger than the Warriors. Then there's something you can't really measure and that's power. Russell Packer is bigger and better than Jacob Lillyman, Paul Vaughan is bigger and better than James Gavet and then Jack de Belin is far bigger and better than Bunty Afoa. Joel Thompson's bigger than Bodene Thompson, then Tyson Frizell may not be bigger than Ryan Hoffman but he's far more explosive.

The Warriors just don't have the personnel (granted they were without Simon Mannering) and if you're are going to adopt a grinding style of footy, you need a forward pack that can at least maintain parity, if not dominate their opposition. This plays into the myth of the 'big Warriors forward pack' and unless Gavet/Lillyman are playing their very best every week, the Warriors honestly don't have a forward pack to match the best. That's amplified when you consider that the Warriors need to make metres and dominate defensively, if they are only going to make one pass off the ruck, not offload and play a very basic style of footy.

Ask our resident Dragons expert, the Wildcard about how the Dragons will play their footy without Gareth Widdop and Josh Dugan and it's simple: offloads and rugged forward work. In that sense, the Dragons did exactly what was expected and the disparity in the two styles of footy made things a whole lot worse. Again, it's not all that surprising that the Dragons enjoyed success here as the Warriors couldn't do anything to slow them down through the middle portion of the field. Even when they dominated a tackle as they did in driving Taane Milne back, slamming him to the ground 20m out from their own try-line, Milne offloaded.

To stop offloads and slow ruck-speed, you either need to individually smash the opposition or get three-four bodies into a tackle. The Warriors don't have the power to dominate tackles and as their forwards were generally smaller than the Dragons forwards, then even their outside backs are big and nimble, any one-on-one tackle resulted in a miss or an offload. Scrambling to defend an offload, numbers were stripped from the edges and that's where you've got to feel sorry for Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad - who usually plays fullback or centre in reserve grade - as he was having to make decisions based on being out-numbered more often than not.

Tries were started and scored down that edge so it reflects poorly on Nicoll-Klokstad and David Fusitua, but the Warriors failed to tick the 'Grinding Footy 101' box of holding down the middle of the field. Mediocre effort plays its part, we must also consider that the Warriors just don't have the size or power to handle a pack like the Dragons that is as good as any in the NRL.

Patches

Against Penrith, the Warriors went alright in the first half and as soon as the Panthers wave arrived in the second half, they were gone. This same problem appeared against the Dragons, just in a different form as the Warriors went through their grinding motions in the first 20 minutes and then the switch was flipped with the Dragons getting a sniff of blood in the middle third. Looking back on this, the second half is irrelevant because the Warriors were gone after the Dragons strolled down field and enjoyed success via their offloads. 31 minutes into this game, a shot of the bench appeared with Ben Matulino, Jacob Lillyman and James Gavet sitting there. The game was still very much in the balance - it was in the balance at half-time - but these three look about as downbuzz as you could get.

They knew what was happening, they knew they stood know chance.

This 20-minute period before half-time start with Joel Thompson running over Johnson to score. Johnson's defence was celebrated earlier in the season, although it's tough to expect him to stop Thompson that close to the try-line and it shouldn't be Johnson who is one-on-one with Thompson. But after that Sam Lisone gave away a penalty and spilled the ball, twice gifting the Dragons a positive outcome and that is awfully similar to what happened against Penrith when Ligi Sao and Hoffman gave away penalties to give Penrith a free passage down the field.

Then Bodene Thompson (and Fusitua) decided to rush out of the line to pressure Josh McCrone. Nothing wrong with that as you need to pressure the kicker, especially from the inside or opposite side to where he's aiming to kick. I mean, it was exactly what you wanna do but the idea was right with poor execution as Thompson and Fusitua were coming from marker, with Johnson and Nicoll-Klokstad defending down a short-side. Usually it would be a middle forward rushing from marker, Thompson and Fusitua didn't have the awareness to note their lack of numbers behind them and were made to look rather foolish.

Nicoll-Klokstad scored a fortunate try to finish this period and the first half, keeping the Warriors close on the scoreboard. Highlighting this period is crucial because there will be a similar period in most games. A big second rower will run over a half again, penalties will be conceded and errors will occur again, we'll more than likely see a well-intentioned effort like Thompson's have a net-negative outcome again. Shit happens, right?

Of course it does. The Warriors are now unable to deal with that though and instead, they fold.

Not only that, but instead of restricting it to 5 minutes here, 5 minutes there or 15 minutes where the opposition enjoy the rub of the green, the Warriors have let this become 20 minutes of terror, costing them the game. Once those 20 minutes have come and gone, the Warriors are not capable of clawing their way back into the contest; they can't even fall back on the grind ... the grind that didn't work in the first place.

Is this mental or physical? Well, that's a question that has been asked for years so who knows. I've seen and heard many comments about the Warriors fitness and it's fairly clear that there is a lack of fitness, especially when you ponder how fatigue can influence decision making.

One aspect of this is that if the forwards are chasing a dominant forward pack and offloads, they are going to suffer fatigue quicker. Instead of enjoying a breather for a jiffy while a few comrades slow down the ruck, the Warriors are constantly scrambling and scrambling in the NRL where the speed of the game is already high will only lead to failure.

Another aspect is how tired and lacklustre the Warriors' spine have looked since the opening whistle of the Anzac Test. They were gassed then, made poor decisions, and that has simply continued.

Wrestle and fitness must be high up on the off-season priority list for any NRL team, yet the Warriors appear to be terrible at both. Size doesn't matter here because Cameron Smith isn't big but he's the best wrestler in the NRL and a smaller forward pack should be more agile, mobile and perhaps fitter. The two go hand in hand; if you can't wrestle, you don't earn a slower tempo on defence. If you can't wrestle, you're chasing and if you aren't quite fit enough, then you can't handle scrambling, you can't bounce back when momentum swings against you.

Coach Kearney

All of this reflects poorly on Kearney, obviously.

Kearney dictated the off-season training and had the opportunity to build a team that had his desired level of fitness, wrestling capability, toughness, defensive nous and attacking flair (which has been super duper average). The Warriors have shown that they aren't good enough in all of those aspects that Kearney had control over and even worse, the players aren't filling that void with pure effort. Even if you don't understand something, or can't execute to perfection, you can try extra hard and cover those holes.

The players aren't doing that for Kearney.

Bloody oath that's a concern. The fact of the matter is that Kearney is the coach and we're already seeing that he is bringing players he wants (!!) to Mt Smart with Tohu Harris signed, possibly Leivaha Pulu etc. Kearney is working with players he inherited and considering that, I'm not overly surprised that there is a disconnect between Kearney's style and the players. These players are players who in general terms are a product of the Warriors that we're all trying to run away from and Kearney's having a hard time with players that aren't specifically his.

Yeah yeah, Kearney knew the roster when he accepted the job but I say the above to highlight that Kearney is here for the long-term and he needs to be given that opportunity. We can only judge Kearney on how or if, he turns the club around over a five year period because that's what he is here for.

The ball is now in Kearney's court to be as ruthless as he wants to be, that's his interesting role over the next few weeks. Kearney has a reserve grade team that has some intriguing prospects in it and if the players who played against Penrith and St. George aren't doing a good enough job, Kearney can wield the axe.

No one should be safe. The skipper isn't playing his best footy and he shouldn't be safe, although he's the best fullback we have and it's highly unlikely he'll be cut at any stage. Simon Mannering's absence speaks of his value so he's similar to Tuivasa-Sheck, yet someone like Johnson shouldn't be comfortable. Johnson was terrible and if he's not doing his job (base-level do your job stuff) then there should be no reason why Mason Lino, Ata Hingano or Sam Cook can't be given a shot at doing that job.

Same goes with any forwards because there is a pack of rugged forwards in reserve grade who would love a run in the NRL; Chris Satae, Albert Vete, the Sipley brothers, Isaiah Papalii, Jazz Tevaga, James Bell. They might not be legit NRL talents right now, but they could do what Kearney requires of them and Kearney is actually in a nice position where he can now dictate the attitude of this club. Kearney can send the message that no one is safe and only those who adjust to his plans will play, or he can continue to select those who clearly can't do the job as previous coaches have in the past.

Fitness - what's if these guys in reserve grade have bigger motors?

Attitude - what's if these guys in reserve grade rip in because they are desperate?

Offloads - what's if these guys in reserve grade are naturally better at offloading?

Ruthlessness - what's if these guys in reserve grade are bigger and more physical?

What Are The Warriors?

I chuckle to myself when commentators bemoan the lack of running from Issac Luke. Running out of dummy half is precisely what Luke does best, although he can only be effective at it when his forward pack is earning metres and quick play-the-balls. Same goes for Tuivasa-Sheck as he's hugely influential when he is consistently running at a semi-scrambled defensive line, but when three bodies are waiting for him, he's easy to pick off regardless of how nifty his footwork is. These two lads reflect the attacking strength of the Warriors as they are quick, powerful and their best work is done through the middle, yet the way this team is set up doesn't quite allow for that.

This is why I'd like to see Kearney wield the axe, as he's got to tinker with this team to get the best out of them, right now. It's all fine and dandy having the Kiwis spine, but we've clearly seen how Australia have put that Kiwis spine in the shade by simply dominating the middle of the field. That spine is only good when the pieces of the puzzle around them are complimenting their needs, as is the case with any spine.

The best way of looking at this Warriors team is to view them as a 6-10 ranked team that has a high ceiling. At the moment they are definitely at the lower end of that spectrum, but we've got to have some confidence that they'll find a way out of this hole and re-establish their rightful home as a 7-9 ranked team. That leaves room for them to catch fire at some stage and go on a run where they squeeze every ounce of joy out of that high-ceiling and creep into the top-six. I highly doubt the Warriors will finish lower that 10th and don't expect them to finish higher than 6th.

A major danger sits with Foran and Matulino. They have both signed elsewhere and Matulino already looks as though he's checked out, while Foran could start mentally shifting towards days with his children as soon as the Warriors appear to be all out of hope. There are more players unsigned as well and if there is a large crop of players who sign with other clubs for next season, the number of players desperate to do their best decreases.

To finish with, here's some stylistic playing notes to mull over...

Why do we need to have Foran on the left and Johnson on the right? Johnson swooped over to the left against the Dragons and I was shocked, happy but shocked. I would love to see Foran take control at halfback and play as first-receiver more often than not, on both sides of the ruck, pushing Johnson out wider. Johnson's shown no ability to lead a team as pure halfback (he's done alright in leading a right edge) and Foran may be better off dictating how the Warriors play, allowing for Johnson to do what he does best.

Solomone Kata has been absent during this two game stretch, as has Mannering. Kata hasn't been at his best but he's a powerful runner and adds at least a bit of funk, while Mannering has shown that he's much more than a tackling machine. Why get too crazy about the Warriors when they've been without these two?

The hooking rotation is a mess. Erin Clark was tried there and Nathaniel Roache didn't get a go against the Dragons, with Luke playing 80 minutes. Luke's style doesn't lend itself to playing a full game and I'd like to see someone like Tevaga get a run there as he'll rip in for 20 minutes, oozing effort and allowing Luke to freshen up.

Is there a better option than Hoffman and Thompson both playing 80 minutes? It didn't work for Andrew McFadden and it's not quite working for Kearney either.

It feels like Blake Ayshford is currently the best player at the Warriors. I'll leave y'all with that.

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