Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: Faith or Fear?

Upto Shaun?

Following the Warriors closely as I do, certain aspects about their coverage about them in mainstream media and even within the fanbase, become crystal-clear. What sticks out most notably at the moment is this lingering underbelly of negativity about the Warriors, which is rooted in their four losses this season.

This is on the back of the fourth loss, going down 10-30 at home to the Rabbitohs and the manner of these losses appears to be the major concern. Two of those losses have been at the Mt Smart graveyard and the Warriors were made to resemble zombies on either occasion, they also got similar treatment from an eager Brisbane Broncos side at Mt Smart to start this topsy-turvey run and of course we have the Anzac Day hiding courtesy of Melbourne Storm.
Losing how the Warriors lost those games, has awoken the negativity. 

There's no faith, just fear.

Instead of zoning in on the 8-4 record overall, there is a sharp focus on the losses.

If you told me that the Warriors would be 8-4 heading into Origin, with an away record of 4-1, I'd be nothing but chuffed.

The Warriors have played two top-8 teams twice in the Rabbitohs and Roosters, winning and losing a game against each. They have played 7 of their 12 games against teams in the top-8 and the Warriors have handled their business against bottom-8 teams; they are 4-1 against bottom-8 teams.

After every loss, the Warriors have bounced back to get a win. The 2018 Warriors have not suffered back to back losses and that feels absolutely lovely, even a splash of hearty effort to stop the Rabbitohs blowing that game out was good to see. 

Shaun Johnson's only played 6 games. The Warriors are 8-4, with Johnson play half the games and the Johnson impact is real, given that with Johnson, the Warriors are 5-1 vs 3-3 without Johnson.

Then you come up against the Rabbitohs who are on a roll, not only without Johnson, but without Mason Lino. Maybe the fantastic performances of the wider Warriors squad for much of this season has murkied the waters, led us down this fantasy path where we all expect the same level of play, even when the Warriors have to use their third-string half.

Regardless of whatever way you want to dice it about the forward pack or Roger Tuviasa-Sheck still being amazing; you put any NRL team in a position where they are using a third-string half and they will struggle.

The ceiling for a full-strength Warriors team is high, super high. With every key player that is missing, we drop down a peg and the ceiling gets a tad lower, which then means we have to adjust our expectations accordingly. 

Another wrinkle from the Rabbitohs game that leads me to not be too fussed about the loss, is that the Warriors didn't come close to playing their style of footy. Carrying Karl Lawton and Jazz Tevaga on the bench was a clear signal of the Warriors intention, although I'm not sure Lawton would have played if Issac Luke didn't leave the field for a minor injury.

It's not that this plan didn't work, it seemed to me as though the Warriors never actually got to the point of starting this plan. The Warriors have a specific style of footy, that is responsible for their sublime attack and effectiveness on defence, so it's no real surprise that if they can't even get to start executing that, then they lose.

Yes, the Warriors had more footy than the Rabbitohs and completed at an impressive 84 percent. But for whatever reason, the Warriors had fewer offloads (6 vs 10) and fewer passes (206 vs 209) than the Rabbitohs; the Warriors had more footy but fewer passes!?

Indeed and that means that the Warriors didn't even come close to shifting the footy as they need to, partly due to conditions and I've got no explanation for other reasons - Rabbitohs were good. With more possession, the Warriors did less with the footy and for this team, that is a recipe for a loss and it's also an anomaly in their season thus far.

As always, I take the hangi approach to these matters and the 2018 season is being cooked slowly. I have faith that the Warriors are a top-8 team and to this point, their season reflects this given that they have played numerous games without key players and they have beaten teams they should beat. There are the mandatory highs and lows (of any NRL team, not just the Warriors) sprinkled in there, but you'd have to be outlandishly silly to think that the Warriors are the finished product after round 12.

We have a long way to go and we've barely seen the Warriors play 80 minutes with their strongest possible 17. Or more to the point, the slow-cooking, building towards the Finals point; I'm not convinced Stephen Kearney even knows his top-17 right now.

That's due to injury and the process Kearney is working through to allow the dust to settle, let players prove themselves and/or be leap-frogged by better options. 

You either have faith or fear.

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Peace and love 27.