Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Rosy Outlook
After Melbourne Storm lost two of their first three games, they have now scored 40+ points in three of their next four games and defeated Sydney Roosters by 16 points. I don't believe Aotearoa Warriors are in the same realm as the other 40+ point Storm victims in Brisbane Broncos and Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, yet a weakened Warriors outfit were swiftly blown away in by the forces of Ranginui (great sky).
Being super realistic is useful here and appreciating the Storm's wizardry is handy. An early yellow card to Josh Curran opened the gates and the best dummy half combo in the NRL got busy. Brandon Smith had 12 runs total for 120m @ 10m/run and Harry Grant had 7 runs for 74m @ 10.57m/run. Specifically jumping out of dummy half, Smith had 5 scoots for 62m @ 12.4m/DHR and Grant had 65m from his 6 scoots @ 10.83m/DHR.
We have seen the Warriors struggle to contain nifty work around the ruck this season and then the Smith/Grant combo rolled out 11 dummy half runs for 127m @ 11.54m/DHR. Translation: Smith/Grant grabbed roughly 11m every time they scooted out of dummy half. That sets everything up and along with that Wellington geezer Nelson Asofa-Solomona having 11 runs for 113m @ 10.27m/run, gives the Storm plenty of time and space to work with.
Plow through the middle, draw defenders in, spread the ball to edges with good numbers and space. This isn't anything we haven't seen from the Storm before and my curiousity around how coach Nathan Brown would approach this game given the Warriors record of sporadic Storm upsets, quickly vanished with no Tohu Harris, let alone a centre on debut in Rocco Berry and adjusting to Reece Walsh's inclusion.
Warriors had two debutants in this game, Storm had no player in their team who had debuted this season. That's a really tough game to win.
Speaking of dummy half runs; Melbourne Storm are 1st with 126 DHR, Warriors are 12th with 55 this season. Wayde Egan's a different type of dummy half and obviously not Smith/Grant, yet this is more about team-wide DHR as Storm have Ryan Papenhuyzen, Cameron Munster and George Jennings in the top-50 for DHR along with Smith/Grant, while Warriors have Tuivasa-Sheck helping Egan in that top-50.
As for Reece Walsh. This dude is 18-years-old and he has played for three different teams in seven rounds of footy. Check these stats and they match the eye test of watching Walsh play last week for Redcliffe Dolphins then his NRL debut vs Melbourne Storm...
Round 1 Norths Devils - Fullback: 2 tries, 116 kicking metres, 1 linebreak, 5 tackle busts, 2 offloads, 25 touches.
Round 4 Redcliffe Dolphins - Half: 1 try, 178 kicking metres, 1 linebreak, 4 tackle busts, 1 offload, 27 touches.
Round 7 NZ Warriors - Fullback: 116 kicking metres, 2 try assists, 5 tackle busts, 2 offloads, 34 touches.
It was Walsh who chipped in with kicking, with 4 kicks while Kodi Nikorima had 10 kicks. In his NRL debut, Walsh predominantly played as a typical fullback but his skillset means that his fullback duties are also half duties. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck doesn't have this skillset and this is a mark of how excessively bonkers Tuivasa-Sheck's running game is as it forms his the bulk of his NRL reputation.
In 10 seasons of NRL, Tuivasa-Sheck has had 10+ try assists in two seasons and he has never averaged more than 20 kicking metres per game. In Walsh's debut he had 116 kicking metres and 2 try assists, while his 98 running metres are a blip in Tuivasa-Shecks' 200+ metre universe.
They are different. Maybe one type is better suited to NRL right now, maybe not. They are simply different in how they play fullback and while Walsh has plenty of NRL reps to digest, he offers something different to the Warriors. At least Walsh didn't have to defend at centre like Berry, with the Storm in that kinda mood.
Niggly debut for Berry and his development will be interesting to watch. Berry isn't a terrible defender and in two reserve grade games at centre, plus this Storm game, Berry has made 49 tackles with 3 missed tackles. Berry had 3 linebreaks and 4 tackle busts in those two reserve grade games, he's also got a couple offloads out across the three games.
The Warriors squad is stretched. Berry, Walsh and Tom Ale were all bumped up from reserve grade which left Jackson Frei as the only Warriors contracted player in the Redcliffe Dolphins team for their reserve grade game on the weekend. Setu Tu played on the wing, although he's not top-30 and it was Edward Kosi who was promoted up to the NRL reserve spot.
There was a bit of funk in the Redcliffe Dolphins Hastings-Deering Colts team (U21) where William Fakatoumafi returned to footy at fullback, joining centre Viliami Vailea, the Kepu twins in the middle, Taniela Otukolo at hooker and Lleyton Finau on an edge. Vailea has played reserve grade before, while Otukolo has featured on previous extended benches for the NRL team so it's hard to see through this and suss out the plan.
Fakatoumafi has been a decorated NZRL junior and played for Tonga at the World Cup 9s, playing in the last NZ Warriors Jersey Flegg team back in 2019. Fakatoumafi then dipped off the radar, popping up with Otahuhu Leopards in the antics of 2020 and is part of the Warriors junior contingent that moved to Redcliffe. Between those outside the top-30 playing Intrust Super Cup, Hastings-Deering Colts and Mal Meninga Cup (U18) there are roughly 10 Warriors juniors playing with Redcliffe and that's a hefty investment from the club.
Meanwhile, Hayze Perham played his second game for Parramatta Eels in NSW Cup. First game since Perham made a permanent move and he started on the wing alongside Rotorua homie Haze Dunster and Nathaniel Roache.
Peace and love.