Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Taking Stock Mid-Season
As Australia gushes into a State of Origin frenzy, the NRL rolls out bye games and NZ Warriors take a wee break. The Warriors don't really have any players pushing for Origin spots and as no one really seems to care about serving up international rugby league in a logical mid-season window, the Warriors don't have any of their players venturing outside Warriors business. After 12 games the Warriors are 9th with a 5-7 record, on the same amount of points as the Dragons ahead of them along with Titans and Knights below them. Perfect time to take stock of the 2021 NZ Warriors season...
Generally same Warriors vibes
Taking stock isn't difficult considering that this is basically the same Warriors season as most of the past 20-odd seasons. We are dealing in a mid-table Warriors outfit who can grab enough wins to stay in the mix but tend to lose games that they should win. The Warriors have played two games against Sea Eagles with two losses and two games against Cowboys that are split with a win each. The NRL draw makes zero sense and while the Warriors have had those double-bangers (both against teams now ahead of the Warriors), they are yet to play Broncos and Bulldogs who are rooted to the bottom of the ladder.
Of the 12 games played, the Warriors have conceded 20+ points in nine games. All the Reece Walsh hype leading into discussion around Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and any other sexy headlines has covered over the burn marks on the carpet; the Warriors struggle to stop their opponents scoring points. Until something changes there, all the attacking impetus and razzle dazzle won't matter and the Warriors will sustain their glorious perch in the annual battle of cracking finals footy.
Everything changes very quickly
At the start of the season, I didn't really care for Reece Walsh. Come round seven and Walsh is starting for the Warriors before playing the next six games, amplifying the fun vibes and generally throwing everything into a positive kerfuffle. The NRL's transfer market and player movement is as non-sensical as their draw, so players can move between clubs rather freely even though there are rules in place. Hayze Perham was quickly shuffled over to Parramatta Eels, Paul Turner was ruled out for the season and seems destined to join Gold Coast Titans while Peta Hiku played four games and will join Cowboys next season.
David Fusitua has not been sighted since round five, while Ken Maumalo did manage to roll through the first 10 games and has not played since. In round one, the Warriors had the skipper at fullback with Fusitua and Maumalo on the wings, Hiku and Euan Aitken as the centres; Aitken is the only bloke currently playing in that position.
As fast as things can change in the above fashion, things can quickly change in a more positive way with Addin Fonua-Blake returning earlier than expected. Things can change quickly as the Warriors unleashed their homegrown Kiwi-NRL debutants in Edward Kosi and Rocco Berry earlier than expected, or Adam Pompey settles in to take his opportunity. Keep an open mind with regards to your Warriors ideas as the team is precariously positioned mid-table and changes either way could quickly change the Warriors vibe.
Alternatively: being mid-table with so much mayhem floating around is pretty good
Set Completions and Stats
The Warriors are 1st in set completions with 81 percent. Last year (with two different coaches) the Warriors were 4th in set completions with 80 percent and even 2019's 6th ranking with 78 percent isn't all that different. Anything you hear about a new Warriors set completion vibe isn't that true considering that the Warriors have been hovering around this mark since Stephen Kearney took over.
Three teams are completing sets at 80 percent or higher - Bulldogs are 2nd and Tigers are 3rd.
Bulldogs have scored the fewest number of tries in the whole NRL, Tigers are 10th and Warriors are 7th in tries scored. This reflects the NRL ladder as Warriors are 9th, Tigers are 13th and Bulldogs 16th. While the three best teams (Panthers, Storm, Eels) are well ranked in set completions with all three on 79 percent; there is minimal correlation between the best teams completing sets and winning games.
With Addin Fonua-Blake, the Warriors were 2-2 in the first four games. Without Fonua-Blake, the Warriors are 3-5 in eight games. NZ Warriors are still 3rd in overall Post Contact Metres (Panthers and Eels lead the way) and Fonua-Blake's 65.3pcm/game is still good enough for him to be ranked 8th in Average Post Contact Metres. Warriors have four players in the top-10 for APCM: Ken Maumalo, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Fonua Blake and David Fusitua.
Warriors are 3rd in PCM and 8th in offloads. The Warriors are also 11th in missed tackles meaning that only five teams have missed fewer tackles than the Warriors and the Warriors are one of six teams who average less than 27 missed tackles per game. These are the foundations of Warriors footy and they give the Warriors a sniff in every game, hence they are mid-table.
Tohu Harris
11 games, 3 tries, 2 linebreaks, 6 linebreak assists, 3 tries assists, 11 offloads, 23 tackle busts, 120m/game and 488 tackles @ 93%.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
1st in all runs, 3rd in PCM, 4th in tackle busts, 16th in linebreaks, 26th in try assists.
As a winger...
vs Tigers: 1 try, 2 linebreaks, 1 try assist, 20 runs - 272m @ 13.6m/run.
vs Cowboys: 1 try assist, 21 runs - 200m @ 9.52m/run.
Tuivasa-Sheck averages 223m/game this season and his two games on the wing generally have the same stats as his prior games at fulback. That's because Tuivasa-Sheck is the mantis.
Wait for signings to happen
When the Warriors appear in headlines to sign a player, they probably won't sign that player.
This popped up last night with the Warriors reportedly making an offer to Nicho Hynes, only for Hynes to sign with Cronulla Sharks on the same night. The Warriors have been reported as making offers for anyone and everyone, notably Jahrome Hughes earlier this year let alone going back to some Dylan Brown stuff a year or two ago. This is a clear trend and I'm writing this in a way where I'm not saying the Warriors made an offer, I'm saying the Warriors were reported as making an offer.
These 'offers' keep finding their way into the newsy headlines, even though they are never really serious contenders to sign that player. Maybe this is from the player agents using the Warriors as a foil to bump up hype and value for that player, or maybe this is from the Warriors continuing to poke and prod into the business of other clubs. I like the idea of the latter as it is more fun.
The takeaway here is that Warriors signings will likely be quiet dealings. Remember that smart footy people are in operation at the Warriors (the two dudes who led recruitment from Aotearoa to Aussie clubs are now in charge) and the likes of Peter O'Sullivan, Phil Gould and even Nathan Brown have been in that weird Aussie footy scene for decades. Thus, I'll propose that these blokes know how to weave through the yucky Aussie media and that the best Warriors signings are those that pop up out of nowhere.
Wholistic approach
There mere fact that we have a competitive Warriors team should be admired. The Warriors are not a shambles like other NRL club and the Warriors have not played in Aotearoa for over a year, rolling through the niggliest of scenarios with class. There is an owner who appears to have a lot of pride in the Warriors and is heavily invested in the local (Auckland) rugby league scene, as well as leaders who are grizzly Aussie rugby league veterans with passion for rugby league in Aotearoa.
The Warriors have half of their junior system in Aotearoa and half in Queensland with Redcliffe Dolphins. That is extremely rare. One could forgive the Warriors for simply trying to stay afloat before returning to Aotearoa, yet the Warriors have blasted forward and invested in moving juniors to Redcliffe as well as establishing deeper links within Aotearoa. The fact that the Warriors have a mid-table NRL team is fantastic given the situation, dig deeper and you'll find a club that is building further foundations below the NRL team despite their situation.
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