Kiwi-NRL Finals Week Tahi Preview
Storm vs Sea Eagles
Storm
Reimis Smith - Mascot Jets/Sydney..
Brandon Smith - Waiheke Rams/Auckland.
Jesse Bromwich - Manurewa Marlins/Auckland.
Kenny Bromwich - Manurewa Marlins/Auckland.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona - Upper Hutt Tigers/Wellington.
Sea Eagles
Morgan Harper - Ngaruawahia Panthers/Waikato.
Kieran Foran - Ellerslie Eagles/Auckland.
Josh Aloiai - Glenora Bears/Auckland.
Martin Taupau - (Sydney).
Toafofoa Sipley - City Newton Dragons/Auckland.
Kiwi-NRL Breakdown
As this season has wiggled along, Manly Sea Eagles emerged as the funkiest Kiwi-NRL team and here they take on the Kiwi-NRL powerhouse Melbourne Storm. While the Storm have taken a slight dip down my Kiwi-NRL rankings as they lack a deep crop of Kiwi-NRL youngsters coming through, they are the closest NRL team to the All Blacks and their quality up top is extremely fun. We will be graced with Jesse Bromwich vs Martin Taupau and for J-Brom I'm going to be keeping a close eye on the impact he has outside of regular stats.
That means how Bromwich controls the ruck. How he wrestles his opponent to their back. The Storm have plenty of metre-eaters and the veteran doesn't need to churn out big running stats. For the Storm to win, they must limit the tempo of Sea Eagles and J-Brom is the key man in the middle while Nelson Asofa-Solomona will be flying around chopping blokes down at the ankles - watch him do that. Veteran match up is J-Brom vs Taupau, younger match up is Asofa-Solomona vs Josh Aloiai.
My Kiwi-NRL Finals MVP prediction is Brandon Smith. He's awesome.
Morgan Harper is a low key Kiwi-NRL hero and while we won't get the Aotearoa Kiwis battle between him and fellow Kiwis prospect Reimis Smith, we are likely to get Harper vs Justin Olam. Don't expect Harper to dominate as he will just play his role and that role will be to get the footy to Jason Saab outside him. Olam will be lining Harper up to whack him with or without the footy.
Kieran Foran and Jahrome Hughes will line up in the halves. These two could easily form an Aotearoa Kiwis halves combo, although their success this season is all about fitting into their team's system. Both benefit from firepower elsewhere which presents opportunities for sneaky runs/plays. Storm and Sea Eagles have scored lots of points this season but if there is any smidge of a grinding finals contest, look for these two to have to flex with their control and kicking.
Another funky match up is Kenny Bromwich vs Haumole Olakau'atu. Olakau'atu is a toko from Sydney so expect him to feature in future Tongan squads and like older bro Jesse, K-Brom's mahi goes under the radar despite being instrumental to Storm culture. The Storm will throw a lot of shape at Olakau'atu's edge and K-Brom has slick hands to go with his footwork providing a range of options for him to work with. Tackling @ 94.5 percent, K-Brom will be tasked with shutting Olakau'atu's dynamic running down.
Roosters vs Titans
Roosters
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves - Rotorua.
Siosiua Taukeiaho - Otara Scorpions/Auckland.
Sitili Tupouniua - Marist Saints/Auckland.
Isaac Liu - Otahuhu Leopards/Auckland.
Naufahu Whyte - Waitemata Seagulls/Auckland.
Titans
Patrick Herbert - Tamaki Rugby Club/Whakatane.
Kevin Proctor - Te Kuiti.
Erin Clark - Manurewa Marlins/Auckland.
Sam Lisone - Otahuhu Leopards/Auckland.
Greg Marzhew - Mangere East Hawks/Auckland.
Kiwi-NRL Breakdown
The lack of Joseph Manu is a bummer here but this does amplify why Sydney Roosters are the best Kiwi-NRL club as they are led by their Kiwi-NRL forwards. The Aussie angle is all about James Tedesco and Sam Walker, while Jared Waerea-Hargreaves has played 21 of 24 games in the middle and the trend continues with Siosiua Taukeiaho playing 20 games, Sitili Tupouniua playing 22 games and Isaac Liu playing every damn game.
Liu is named to come off the bench for the first time this season - he's played every game starting. Liu will also move to Gold Coast Titans next season after nine seasons at one of the two best clubs of this decade. The Titans have some Kiwi-NRL funk and what not, I'm most interested in how this group of Kiwi-NRL Roosters forwards perform as they have set this team up to be in the finals despite their injuries and retirements. Plus this group of Kiwi-NRL forwards will be eager to shut down a Titans forward pack that has far more headline status, just without the mana.
Panthers vs Rabbitohs
Panthers
James Fisher-Harris - Whangarei Marist/Northland.
Rabbitohs
Jaxson Paulo - Northcote Tigers/Auckland.
Benji Marshall - Whakatane.
Kiwi-NRL Breakdown
First, let's take a moment to salute kaumatua Benji Marshall.
James Fisher-Harris is my only Kiwi-NRL joker for the Panthers - Jarome Luai was born and raised in Sydney but captained 2017 Junior Kiwis and then played for New South Wales, Moses Leota and Spencer Leniu was born in Auckland but also went down NSW path. The beauty of Fisher-Harris being a lone Kiwi-NRL trooper is that he is an exceptional representative of Aotearoa and whether you're from Northland or just love Kiwi-NRL footy; Fisher-Harris is more than enough reason to focus on Panthers.
Below are Fisher-Harris' average Missed Tackles, Post Contact Metres, Offloads and Run Metres over the last three seasons. Fisher-Harris doesn't have to do as much running mahi as last year, while he has improved on his tackling and offloads.
2019: 3.87 MT / 42.29 PCM / 1.04 OFL / 132 M.
2020: 1.95 MT / 66.69 PCM / 0.69 OFL / 179 M.
2021: 1.6 MT / 60.55 PCM / 1.4 OFL / 164 M.
What's most interesting for Fisher-Harris is that he missed a couple games earlier in the NRL's move to Queensland and in the two games upon his return he churned out his regular 50+ minutes, yet only had 78m and 94m running the footy. That dip in running metres came via a dip in touches and Fisher-Harris being the Hokianga hooper made his regular amount of tackles. This tells me that the Panthers managed Fisher-Harris leading into the finals, first to ease him back from a break and then to prepare for finals footy.
Minutes and tackles were the same, but a subtle shift saw Fisher-Harris do far less running mahi in the last two games. That smells like a recipe for Fisher-Harris to be fizzing and even though both teams will throw some funky footy around, you won't regret keeping your eyes fixed on Fisher-Harris as he rips in as the best forward on the field.
Eels vs Knights
Eels
Haze Dunster - Rotorua.
Dylan Brown - Hikurangi Stags/Northland.
Marata Niukore - Mangere East Hawks/Auckland.
Isaiah Papali'i - Te Atatu Roosters/Auckland.
Makahesi Makatoa - Marist Dragons/New Plymouth.
Knights
Jirah Momoisea - St Paul's College/Auckland.
Simi Sasagi - Ellerslie Eagles/Auckland.
Kiwi-NRL Breakdown
The Knights Kiwi-NRL duo of Jirah Momoisea and Simi Sasagi are named on the extended bench so unlikely to play.
After starting as an edge forward in 18 of his 23 games this season, Isaiah Papali'i moves to the bench with Marata Niukore sealing an edge role. This has been forecasted in Papali'i starting the last three games in the middle and with Makahesi Makatoa having an impact since debuting, these two will provide ample oomph off the bench - perhaps more than the Knights.
These two forward packs are rugged and ruthless. Three Kiwi-NRL lads in the Eels forward pack, two former Warriors and a late bloomer from New Plymouth. The Eels pride themselves on winning physical battles and that leaves me eager to see Niukore, Papali'i and Makatoa step up to finals footy against a hearty Knights pack.
When the ball gets to Dylan Brown though, I'll be even more engaged. There is a lot more to halves play than these basics and Brown's 21-years-old so he'll grow into subtle tricks etc. In his third season, Brown is tackling @ 95.9 percent, averaging 101m per game and 127.65 kicking metres per game. Most NRL clubs would love their half to average 1.2 missed tackles per game, let alone also running for 100m. Below shows how Brown has improved defensively while developing his kicking game...
2019: 2.46 MT / 58.83 KM.
2020: 1.44 MT / 109.91 KM.
2021: 1.21 MT / 127.65 KM.
The knock on Brown has been his lack of play-making and after two seasons in a row with 5 try assists, Brown has just 2 this season. That's obviously not Brown's role though as Mitchell Moses and Clint Gutherson both have 18 try assists to be ranked 8th and 9th respectively. With Reed Mahoney 18th on 13 try assists, the Eels rely on Brown to tick the basics box while their play-making comes from elsewhere.
Mahoney is out injured though and I'm curious to see how Brown plays in this finals match up. With plenty of tape on how Moses and Gutherson go about their mahi, the Eels could roll out more plays with Brown as the focal point as they won't get the same play-making from Ray Stone as they did with Mahoney. Then again, the rugged nature of this contest could make the grind more important and Brown's willingness to run as well as make the vast majority of his tackles could be a deciding factor.
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