New Zealand Warriors had their second loss to Canberra Raiders of the NRL season last weekend and while that was a bummer, another Sunday outing against South Sydney Rabbitohs in Sydney will be a better gauge of how they are tracking through the winter grind. Raiders are the best team NZW have played against this season and their style of footy not only ruffles feathers, it has proven to be too fast and expansive for NZW in two losses.

NZW were beaten up by Raiders and Joseph Tapine commanded ownership of Mt Smart. That probably wouldn't have happened if either James Fisher-Harris or Mitchell Barnett were playing, let alone both of them as the starting props. They return to the team for the trip to Sydney with Barnett hopeful of backing up his Wednesday night work shift, so the physicality and ruck control that has been a steady strength of NZW this season should swing back around.

There is another low key selection move that should help NZW as Leka Halasima is named on the bench with Kurt Capewell and Marata Niukore named to start as edge forwards. Halasima's best moments have been when he comes off the bench to power through or burst around tired defenders. The young forward did well to churn out 80 minutes in recent weeks but instead of being a weapon late in halves, Halasima was tasked with maintaining a solid level throughout his 80mins.

Rocco Berry is named at centre with Ali Leiataua starting at centre in NSW Cup. Leiataua was consistently driven backwards in his runs vs Raiders and with Dallin Watene-Zelezniak struggled to dent defensive lines right now, these two on the right edge were thoroughly out-played by the Raiders combo of Sebastian Kris and Savelio Tamale.

This throws up a funky situation because Leiataua returned from injury to slide straight back into the NRL without any NSW Cup footy to build up to NRL speed. Watene-Zelezniak didn't play any NSW Cup before returning to NRL and he has been mediocre in his three games. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck didn't play NSW Cup either and while he wasn't perfect vs Dolphins, Tuivasa-Sheck joined the super consistent Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad with emphatic running mahi in his last two games.

Now Berry comes back to play centre in the NRL after no NSW Cup games. Berry played the first three rounds of NSW Cup to work his way back into the NRL mix and his last game of reserve grade was round three. Given how Leiataua went last round with no foundation of NSW Cup, this is a weird wrinkle to keep track of.

Watene-Zelezniak actually had his best game of the season when returning from injury, before dipping away in his next two games. Here is Watene-Zelezniak's running mahi this season (pcm = post contact metres)...

vs Dragons: 14 runs - 130m @ 9.2m/run, 2.9pcm/run, 1 tackle break
vs Dolphins: 10 runs - 88m @ 8.8m/run, 2.1pcm/run, 1 tackle break
vs Raiders: 10 runs - 79m @ 7.9m/run, 1.6pcm/run

For context, here is how Nicoll-Klokstad and Tuivasa-Sheck went vs Raiders...

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad: 16 runs - 204m @ 12.7m/run, 2.9pcm/run, 1 linebreak, 5 tackle breaks
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck: 18 runs - 180m @ 10m/run, 3.8pcm/run, 1 linebreak, 1 linebreak assist, 8 tackle breaks

Watene-Zelezniak has two tackle breaks in three games (1.5 per game). Meanwhile Nicoll-Klokstad and Tuivasa-Sheck both average four this season, with Nicoll-Klokstad leading NZW for tackle breaks while being 22nd in the NRL.

Things get quirkier when comparing Watene-Zelezniak to the bloke he replaced in Taine Tuaupiki who has started eight of his nine games this season on the wing. Tuaupiki averages 3.3 tackle breaks in those games as a winger and it's not surprising that Tuaupiki averages twice as many tackle breaks as Watene-Zelezniak because of their running style.

Wee example of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad's defensive mahi as fullback...

-Barking orders
-Fills line to cover slow get backs
-Pushes up in the line, makes right read, misses tackle, tries again
-Bursts from marker to cover kick on other side pic.twitter.com/M1FQJXiqug
— The Niche Cache (@thenichecache) May 28, 2025

Tuaupiki averages more running metres as a winger this season than Watene-Zelezniak though. In his eight games on the wing, Tuaupiki averaged 117.2m/game and Watene-Zelezniak is averaging a career-low 99m/game after his three games. It's a smidge below 100m but this is the first of his 14 NRL seasons in which Watene-Zelezniak is averaging below 100m and this drops to 83.5m/game in his last two outings.

Watene-Zelezniak needs to find some juice and after combining with Leiataua vs Raiders, he now has Berry coming back to NRL footy with no ramp up via NSW Cup. There is constant shuffling at the right edge forward position as well with Niukore, Halasima and Jacob Laban spending time there this season. How coach Andrew Webster fine-tunes the right edge will be a key observation point against Rabbitohs.

While on the topic of outside backs...

Wayde Egan was the only NZW player who had a dummy half run vs Raiders (4 - 30m @ 7.5m/run). Raiders had nine players with a dummy half run and every back except for Jamal Fogarty had one, while three outside backs had at least two each.

NZW have played two very different games vs Rabbitohs during the two Andys era...

2023 at Mt Smart: 6-28 loss
2024 in Sydney: 34-4 win

They are similar in a bunch of stats having both played 11 games...

Tries

Warriors: 13th - 38
Rabbitohs: 16th - 31

Set Completion

Warriors: 1st - 82%
Rabbitohs: 3rd - 81%

Linebreaks

Warriors: 16th - 38
Rabbitohs: 17th - 35

Post Contact Metres

Warriors: 5th - 6,374
Rabbitohs: 9th - 5,900

Kick Return Metres

Warriors: 12th - 1,618
Rabbitohs: 14th - 1,509

Dummy Half Runs

Warriors: 6th - 101
Rabbitohs: 4th - 107

Offloads

Warriors: 15th - 77
Rabbitohs: 17th - 72

Penalties Conceded

Warriors: 16th - 54
Rabbitohs: 13th - 59

Here are some stat zones with the biggest differences

Tackle Breaks

Warriors: 10th - 331
Rabbitohs: 17th - 267

Missed Tackles

Warriors: 9th - 348
Rabbitohs: 1st - 422

Kick Metres

Warriors: 8th - 6,687
Rabbitohs: 1st - 7,767

The NSW Cup and Jersey Flegg Cup teams both had wins vs Bulldogs last weekend. Here's how the sit on the ladder compared to Bulldogs and Rabbitohs - who they both play in Sydney this round...

NSW Cup

Warriors: 1st | 10-1
Bulldogs: 7th | 5-6
Rabbitohs: 13th | 2-9

Jersey Flegg Cup

Bulldogs: 6th | 6-5
Warriors: 10th | 3-6-2
Rabbitohs: 12th | 3-8

The most interesting note from the wins vs Bulldogs was the two halves combinations. The NSW Cup team had two Under 21 halves in Luke Hanson and Jett Cleary, while the U21 team had two U19 halves in Jack Thompson and Maui Winitana-Patelesio. Tanah Boyd was 18th-man for the NRL team last round and is named in NSW Cup with Hanson. Cleary drops down to U21s where he is named alongside Thompson.

Teams often change for game time in these grades so none of this may end up being true, but there is some sort of pecking order flow on display.

Tuaupiki has returned to NSW Cup last week and Geronimo Doyle dipped back to the bench.

Morgan Harper sits behind Leiataua, Sio Kali, Moala Graham-Taufa and Edward Kosi at the NSW Cup tier.

With Tanner Stowers-Smith, Bunty Afoa and Tom Ale named as the three middle forwards to start in NSW Cup, Kalani Going drops back to the bench.

Going, Doyle and Harper are important players to have in the NSW Cup group. They won't block anyone's path to NRL footy though and the strength of the NZW system during the two Andys era has been the quality of individuals who are comfortable playing their role in the NZW system. Going is in his third season of doing this and his mana is impeccable, while Doyle is close behind him and Harper has embraced this culture at Mt Smart.

Along with Cleary going back down to U21s, Going has bumped Jason Salalilo from his NSW Cup bench spot down to starting prop in U21s. The Jersey Flegg Cup team has also been boosted by Palmerston North Boys High School product Joseph Ratcliffe playing at fullback having being promoted after the U19 SG Ball Cup season.

This has pushed Caelys Putoko into centre where he is shining along with Aussie Brandon Norris. Salalilo, Cleary, Jacob Auloa, Rodney Tuipulotu-Vea and Harry Durbin have all played NSW Cup while being regulars in U21s this season, but the Ratcliffe/Putoko/Norris trio have shown exciting potential as well in the outside back department.

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Peace and love.