2022 Rugby League World Cup: Aotearoa Kiwis vs Australia Semi-Final Preview
Aotearoa play Australia in a Rugby League World Cup semi-final on Saturday morning (NZT) with a team that is among, if not the best Aotearoa Kiwis outfit since millennials emerged. While Aotearoa Kiwis have been manifesting their numero tahi international rugby league ranking, kiwi rugby league fans carry plenty of trauma from previous encounters with Australia's Kangaroos.
Working in Aotearoa's favour are sporadic wins over Australia and these some of these wins have been delivered when it mattered most. The Kangaroos are also missing figures that brew fear in kiwi league fans and packing multiple players of that stature in the same Aussie team saw Kangaroos conjure an invincible aura. Australia still have many of the best players in the world, they have rugby league systems that are vastly superior to Aotearoa and far more resources to invest in Aussie footy.
Yet here's Aotearoa; lurking, loitering, lingering.
The Aotearoa Kiwis squad has been named and Moses Leota is included, taking Scott Sorenson's spot. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is also in the squad but he is unlikely to be selected ahead of goal-kicking Jordan Rapana and Ronaldo Mulitalo who has flourished with Kiwis mana. Leota's power and energy through the middle is a fabulous boost for Aotearoa which is likely to see him replace fellow kiwi-uso Isaac Liu in the top-17.
Take a moment to salute Otahuhu junior Liu. Liu played nine seasons for Roosters and his first season with Titans saw Liu register the most losses of his career with a notable dip in running mahi, plus Liu didn't score a try after eight consecutive seasons with at least one try. None of that suggested Liu would be a World Cup factor, but Kiwis mana is brewing and coach Michael Maguire embraced multiple veterans to further establish Kiwis mana.
In a tricky game against Ireland, Liu had 136m and four passes. James Fisher-Harris was the only Kiwis forward with more metres than Liu and no Kiwis forward had more passes than Liu.
In a brutal encounter with Fiji, Liu had 139m and five passes. Isaiah Papali'i was the only Kiwis forward with more metres and no Kiwis forward had more passes than Liu.
The performance against Fiji was especially funky as it was a quarter-final and Liu elevated his mahi in a knockout game. Liu probably isn't even in the mix if Leota and/or Marata Niukore are available against Fiji, let alone if Jared Waerea-Hargreaves wanted to be available. As much as folks celebrated Aotearoa's forward pack and whipped up fantasy line ups that excluded Liu, he was one of the most important players in a quarter-final.
Forwards passing is something to keep tabs on for Aotearoa and this may help Liu's case for selection. This was part of a key theme of Aotearoa Kiwis footy prior to RLWC. While James Fisher-Harris and Joseph Tapine are capbale passers, there is a lack of crisp distribution in the middle forwards; Liu's passing has been part of the game plan because he's one of the better passing forwards.
This plays a role in Aotearoa's 'clunky' attack. Passing forwards engage defenders and open up space wider and Aotearoa's halves often find themselves in a South Auckland cul de sac with minimal options on the edges. Slow play-the-balls are also a factor here and Aotearoa is often shifting wide from slow rucks because the Waiheke Ram pounces on any quick play-the-ball.
Brandon Smith is the most important player for Aotearoa. This is another Kiwis theme from the RLWC preview that has snuck under the radar in recent weeks as Tokoroa's Joseph Manu loves to scoot out of dummy half and usually takes the next scoot after Smith bursts out of dummy half.
Against Ireland, Manu and Smith had two dummy half runs each. Against Fiji, Manu had five dummy half runs and Smith had nine. When Aotearoa is battling, dummy half runs from two of the best runners in the world are key weapons and these runs require quick play-the-balls as well as scattered markers.
The running ability of Jahrome Hughes and Dylan Brown ensures that they can wiggle out of defensive pressure. Ireland's rugby league team have similar defensive energy as their rugby union team and Fiji's edge defence was also aggressive. Hughes bounced back towards the ruck and looked to kick into space, Brown bounced of his left foot and anything can happen from there.
Most of this will be dictated by the physical battle through the middle. Even though we relived the 2017 RLWC trauma in last week's game against Fiji, Aotearoa rolled down field with relative ease and consistently dominated tackles. This was evident in Aotearoa driving the opponent backwards and constantly hearing 'surrender!' from the referee which allowed Aotearoa to lay in the ruck a wee bit longer.
As niggly as the win over Fiji was, Aotearoa maintained their mahi to the end. Aotearoa embraced the grind and despite ol' mate Vossy bemoaning Aotearoa's kicking game with lots of bombs, that's the grind that saw Aotearoa pull away from Fiji in the last five minutes.
Nothing about Aotearoa's footy at this RLWC suggests they are the best team. Aotearoa Kiwis enter this semi-final against Australia having experienced all the chaos and niggle of RLWC Test footy, even flirting with an upset defeat against Fiji. Perhaps this full experience of RLWC footy can help Aotearoa snare a win over the nation who thinks they run international rugby league.
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Peace and love.