Kiwi-NRL Semi Finals Preview

Kiwi-NRL finals shifts into the last four teams and every team has blokes who played grassroots footy in Aotearoa. Cowboys host Eels on Friday night and then Saturday's fixture is Panthers vs Rabbitohs in Sydney with Manurewa junior Siliva Havili out injured for Rabbitohs. Eels are also working through some team-naming antics and they have the perfect player in Marata Niukore to cover all situations.

Tom Opacic has been named at left centre for Eels and he picked up a hamstring injury last week. Niukore is named on the bench and New Plymouth's Makahesi Makatoa is bumped off the bench with Bryce Cartwright promoted in his place. This may be precisely how Eels line up but given that Niukore has been named on the bench and then started in the number 17 jersey for the last five games, Eels are the least likely team to run out as named on Tuesday.

Niukore could start at lock as he has done in this recent five game stretch or he could start at centre if Opacic is unavailable. Makatoa has done a fabulous job this season through the middle for Eels as his game time varies every week and without fuss, Makatoa has played less than 15 minutes in the last three games. Makatoa has played 24 games this season and if he doesn't play vs Cowboys, this would be another salute to Makatoa's team-first mana.

Eels

Dylan Brown: Hikurangi Stags

Isaiah Papali'i: Te Atatu Roosters

Marata Niukore: Mangere East Hawks

(Makahesi Makatoa, Bailey Simonsson, Ofahiki Ogden)

If Niukore starts at centre, then Makatoa takes up his usual bench role. Niukore plugged the centre hole nicely last week after Opacic's injury, has a long history of playing centre and played centre at the highest level for Aoteaora earlier this year against Tonga. Who knows what will happen here but if Opacic can't play, there are seamless changes that can absorb his absence.

If Niukore starts at left edge for Eels, he will line up against Peta Hiku who was the other Aotearoa Kiwis centre against Tonga. That would be fantastic as Niukore has to deal with Hiku's skill and Hiku would need to physically match Niukore. Otherwise Niukore plays through the middle where he will trade blows with fellow South Aucklander Jason Taumalolo, as well as Greymouth's Griffin Neame.

Cowboys

Peta Hiku: Manurewa Marlins

Jason Taumalolo: Papakura/Otahuhu

Griffin Neame: Suburbs Rugby Leauge Greymouth

Kiwi-NRL folks should be zoned in on Northland's Dylan Brown as he continues to develop his game through the climax of the season. Brown has flexed at first receiver for Eels and this is an juicy wrinkle to track against Cowboys as Brown is the best running half in the NRL, which is perfectly suited to engaging defenders close to the ruck. Eels will offer variety with their attacking shapes and this depends on which edge they want to attack, looking especially lethal when Brown is passing to Mitchell Moses.

Brown is 23rd for total run metres in the NRL and this is boosted by a few extra finals games, so let's break it down further. Nicho Hynes is the only other half in the top-50 and he averages 117m, close but below Brown's 125m per game. The other halves involved this weekend are all well below Brown's running mahi as well...

  • Nathan Cleary: 92m/game.

  • Jarome Luai: 71m/game.

  • Tom Deardon: 93m/game.

  • Chad Townsend: 49m/game.

  • Cody Walker: 73m/game.

  • Lachlan Illias: 67m/game.

When Brown is out wider, his running threat is obvious as he can break ankles and target holes between defenders. When Brown operates at first receiver, defenders need to respect his running ability before drifting wider to cover Moses and that gives Moses more time to pick apart the defence.

Isaiah Papali'i will line up against Tom Gilbert and Luciano Leilua will probably roll into that left edge spot off the bench for Cowboys. That's a lovely match up for Papali'i and while his powerful running is obvious, Papali'i has also plopped out an offload in each of his last five games and he has more offloads this season than his Dally M Backrower of the Year award winning season. Tackling Papali'i is one thing, dealing with his offloads on an edge is a whole different monster.

Taumalolo has found a nek level this season and this was most evident in the finals win over Sharks as Taumalolo played 82 minutes with 42 tackles and a clutch try. Taumalolo has played 60+ minutes in eight of his 24 games this season and this foundation saw Taumalolo flourish in a marathon against Sharks. Eels don't just need to deal with Taumalolo's robust running as his development features more passing and the odd dummy half run where Taumalolo looks as swift and nimble as any hooker.

More minutes for Taumalolo means less minutes for Neame. Despite that Cowboys vs Sharks game going for 93mins, Neame played just 7mins and that should increase against a hostile Eels forward pack. Eels will do lots of planning for Taumalolo and other key forwards such as Reuben Cotter, perhaps leaving Neame with space to shine.

Rabbitohs

Kodi Nikorima: Christchurch/Manawatu

Michael Chee Kam: Mt Wellington Warriors

Havili's injury for Rabbitohs ensures that Michael Chee Kam continues his run of game time. This will be the first time this season that Chee Kam has played three consecutive games and despite the low key absence of Havili's oomph, Chee Kam is mobile and funky. Against an awesome Panthers forward pack, Chee Kam's spice could be an unpredictable asset for Rabbitohs.

James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota are always willing runners, executing their attacking roles as good as any other starting duo in the competition. That's a starting point for Panthers limiting Latrell Mitchell as Nathan Cleary is graced with time and space to showcase his kicking quiver. Panthers do the best kick-chase and their defensive mahi is usually led by their starting props.

These two may be the blokes who take a run late in the set to give Cleary space, but that role is often played by fullback Dylan Edwards. This allows Fisher-Harris and Leota to charge down the field where they will be eager to give Mitchell a kia ora or talofa.

Fisher-Harris has made 30+ tackles in each of his last three games, 99 tackles all up with three missed tackles. Kohukohu's finest has made 645 tackles at 95.4 percent efficiency. Leota is also brewing defensively as he's made 20+ tackles in this recent stretch, 86 tackles total with three missed tackles. Leota has made 437 tackles at 93.4 percent efficiency. These two are mobile and aggressive, which is the perfect package to pin Mitchell and the Rabbitohs backs deep in their own territory.

Panthers

James Fisher-Harris: Whangarei Marist

Moses Leota: Auckland

Scott Sorenson: Sydney

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