How The Aotearoa Warriors Forward Pack May Operate In 2023
Any improvements in Aotearoa Warriors mahi this season will stem from their forward pack and as the roles of forwards changes with the style of NRL footy, building a competitive forward pack can be tricky. Warriors have not had a winning forward pack for at least five years and new coach Andrew Webser has an intriguing challenge ahead of him in developing this pack.
The best forward packs combine vigour with skill. Some blokes are required to dent the defensive line with aggressive running, others get between defenders with speed and footwork. Some forwards look for contact just to squeeze out an offload, others use most of their touches to pass the ball wider to exploit space. Some forwards change games with a big shot in defence, others quietly mop up inside shoulders and tighten the defensive line.
For a variety of reasons, some key trends have emerged in how forwards operate. The greater focus on player welfare now means that teams must be able to absorb the loss of a player mid-game and also covering positions during a season. Every team must have blokes who can play middle and edge, plugging a hole without a hefty drop in performance.
Small middle forwards have also enjoy greater roles as they provide speed in attack and defence. Many teams carry a small forward on their bench or as a starter and they also have a couple of middle forwards who can distribute the footy. Every team wants passing forwards, the best teams have forwards who can rip 10m passes in either direction straight into the bread-basket.
Warriors have these bases covered and also have a coach who worked with the best forward pack at Panthers. As an assistant coach, Webster was in charge of Panthers attack and while Panthers were successful without him, Webster played his role in back to back championships while with Panthers. The development of James Fisher-Harris' passing is one of many funky examples to ponder for Warriors folk.
Laying out the Warriors forward pack in different brackets will help diffentiate skillsets and roles. This starts with the leaders in Tohu Harris and Addin Fonua-Blake. As leaders, these two will play the most minutes and apart from Harris covering an edge when required, these two will spent most of their game time in the middle.
Harris is capable of everything. Footwork and skill allows Harris to dent defensive lines as the opposition has to deal with everything around him. Harris is the best Warriors forward at passing and his role is as much about distribution as it is rugged mahi. Harris also loves rugged mahi, which can balance out the oomph offered by Fonua-Blake.
Fonua-Blake combines speed, power and footwork. He is equally as likely to steam-roll an opponent as he is to shimmy into a gap. Fonua-Blake is also developing his distribution and while this is slightly slower, less accurate than Harris, Fonua-Blake is a capable passer in the middle.
Many folks will view this highlight as a fabulous Shaun Johnson moment and given the pandemic vibe, that's fair. Johnson didn't showcase his speed or razzle dazzle, he played his role in a funky attacking shape that starts with Fonua-Blake passing behind Harris. Three Bulldogs defenders need to cover Fonua-Blake and Harris, highlighting the value of middle forwards who can engage defenders and shift the footy.
This leader duo has mana and are well equipped for NRL footy in 2023. They have already shown their skills and Webster now has a full summer with these lads to fine-tune their attacking shapes. The Harris/Fonua-Blake/Webster combination could be a low key banger for Warriors.
The next group of forwards are the hole-pluggers. This is where Warriors were busy in the market as they signed Mitch Barnett, Marata Niukore, Dylan Walker and Jackson Ford. All four of these signings have played at least four seasons of NRL and can cover multiple positions. Warriors highlighted what they needed and signed a bunch of solid professionals to join Josh Curran, Jazz Tevaga and Bayley Sironen.
Barnett seems likely to start the season as a middle forward and will also cover edge forward at some point in the season. This is thanks to Barnett's mobility which would give the Warriors a nimble middle trio. Barnett is also aggressive in his mahi and can play an enforcer role, with scope to develop his distribution under Webster.
Niukore is so good at footy that he can play centre, edge and middle forward at the highest level. That's extremely useful over the course of a season and he could settle on an edge to start the season. Niukore is capable of winning physical battles on an edge or in the middle. As an edge forward, Niukore's combination with Johnson and/or Te Maire Martin will be a funky wrinkle to track.
If Barnett's a starting middle forward, then Curran is the leading candidate to fill the other edge forward slot. Curran can play both roles, adding quirky play-making to either position. While folks look for trendy signings for headlines, Warriors quietly signed Ford who adds edge forward depth and can plug a hole in the middle if required. Sironen is yet to command consistent selection in any role and is part of this versatile depth.
Warriors have variety in their edge forward styles and signing Walker adds even more spice to the forward pack. Walker can also cover halves, hooker and centre, but he earned this contract via his middle forward mahi for Sea Eagles. Walker's speed and skill adds funk to the Warriors forward pack, plus Walker is an experienced trooper who loves Aotearoa.
Tevaga plugs all holes in the middle, doing so with fabulous vigour. The reliable presence of Tevaga absorbs any middle/edge swaps and he is capable of starting or coming off the bench. Tevaga is entering his eighth NRL season and has played 15+ games in four of the last five seasons. Tevaga has the most scope for development under Webster with offloads and late passing, on top of his gritty runs and defensive energy.
The last group of forwards are the runners. Bunty Afoa leads this group and folks should not overlook Afoa as a starting middle forward alongside Harris and Fonua-Blake. Afoa is entering his seventh season and while he missed the 2020 season (lucky guy) due to injury, Afoa has played 20+ games in his last four seasons of footy. Afoa has already started a bunch of games for Warriors and is more than capable of starting consistently.
There is a wee example of the roles in how Tevaga has had 19+ offloads in each of his last five seasons, while Afoa has had less than 10 in each of his last five seasons. This is not a negative note about Afoa and instead serves to highlight nuance in what each middle forward offers.
The runners group is all about efficiency. As long as Afoa hovers around 10m/run and makes most of his tackles, he is shining in his role. The best players can maintain such efficiency in big minutes (50+ minutes) and that's what Afoa can aspire to. Whether Afoa starts or comes off the bench, he is likely to play 20-35 minutes and won't be asked to pass too often; dent the line uso.
With efficiency in mind, Warriors will call on Tom Ale and the Kepu twins as runners. Kina and Valingi Kepu will probably play less than 25 minutes in less than 15 games. As young forwards they will be required to gather experience in NSW Cup and build up their stamina, then playing less minutes with more efficiency in NRL. Ale has already laid out this recipe with his four games late last season...
vs Bulldogs: 4 runs - 53m @ 13.25m/run
vs Cowboys: 7 runs - 64m @ 9.14m/run
vs Panthers: 13 runs - 122m @ 9.38m/run
vs Titans: 10 runs - 116m @ 11.6m/run
Warriors could operate with Afoa and Ale in their team. Warriors can also flip to a more mobile forward pack with Tevaga and Walker getting more minutes. More importantly, Warriors can balance the likes of Afoa and Ale with smaller, more mobile forwards. Coach Webster has a forward pack that will be able to ride the wave of a long season and execute his game plan. Led by Harris and Fonua-Blake, Warriors return to Aotearoa with a skillful forward pack that should be invigorated by local Mt Smart flavour.
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