Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Fighting Off Raiders Revenge
Just over a month ago, NZ Warriors upset the Jarrod Croker 300th party for Canberra Raiders. Since then Warriors have played four games with three wins and a loss, scoring 40+ points in all three wins. Raiders haven't hit 40 points in their three games since hosting Warriors, in fact they have only scored 30+ points in one of those wins, although Raiders have won all three games since that loss to Warriors.
Raiders have the same away record as Warriors this season (6-3) and they are entrenched in the top-eight with the same number of wins (11). Sharks were meant to offer a hearty top-eight challenge for Warriors last weekend and they crumbled for the second time this season against Warriors. Raiders present a similar challenge given that Warriors won their first match up of the season in Australia, now Raiders seek revenge at the Mt Smart whare.
In a dose of Matariki alignment, the Kiwi-NRL Spotlight was put on Rocco Berry last week and then he enjoyed a breakout performance against Sharks. Like all Warriors matters, things are far more nuanced than they are often presented and while Berry is one of many fabulous youngsters in the Warriors system, he is benefitting from favourable match ups.
Last week Berry lined up against Siosifa Talakai who is tackling at a below-average 79%. Talakai had 4 missed tackles in the first game vs Warriors, followed by 5 missed tackles last round. Talakai defends alongside Matt Moylan who tackles at 84% and missed 7 tackles in the first loss to Warriors, then 6 missed tackles at Mt Smart.
Not only did Sharks lose their starting edge forward Teig Wilton early against Warriors, Talakai and Moylan combined for 11 missed tackles last round. Overall, they have 22 missed tackles in two games against Warriors and that offers the stench of a defensive weakness compared to the Sharks right edge. Here's the stats for Briton Nikora, Nicho Hynes and Jesse Ramien defending on the right edge for Sharks...
Briton Nikora: 92% tackling, 3/3 missed tackles vs Warriors
Nicho Hynes: 92% tackling, 1/1 missed tackles vs Warriors
Jesse Ramien: 90% tackling, 3/0 missed tackles vs Warriors
This flips to Sharks attack/Warriors defence as well. The Sharks right edge offered a tricky challenge with Hynes floating across field, Nikora doing his 'best hole-runner' thing while Ramien is a strolling tackle buster. This is why Jackson Ford and Luke Metcalf had 5 missed tackles each and Adam Pompey had 8 missed tackles. The Sharks right edge is better than their left edge with and without the footy.
Against Raiders, Berry has the easier match up once again. Berry will line up against Jarrod Croker while Pompey lines up against Matthew Timoko and these Raiders centres offer vastly different funk (per game)..
Matthew Timoko: 4.5 tackle busts, 162.7m, 1.6 missed tackles
Jarrod Croker: 1.4 tackle busts, 70.9m, 3 missed tackles
For the second game in a row, Berry will benefit from lining up against the weaker centre. Keep this in mind while whipping up the Berry hype and deploying this against Pompey. Both are playing their roles for coach Andrew Webster, but one is in a pocket of favourable match ups. It's going to be far more difficult for Pompey to tackle Timoko than Berry tackling Croker, while the Raiders edges also present weaknesses to expose.
Warriors have just one player in the top-50 for missed tackles with Ford ranked 9th overall. (this doesn't help Pompey's defensive mahi as he has to adapt). Meanwhile Raiders have three players in the top-50 and they are all edge defenders; Elliott Whitehead's 13th, Hudson Young is 19th and Jack Wighton is 28th.
Not only will Berry and the Warriors right edge (boosted by Marata Niukore's return) have another left edge to target, Warriors can zone in on either edge to attack spaces around the edge forward. Warriors will be attacking every space though, starting with Wayde Egan at hooker who has 5 tries, 6 linebreak assists and is averaging a career-best 53m/game.
Dylan Walker didn't play in the win vs Raiders, yet Warriors flexed with their ball movement. Tohu Harris had 22 passes in that game and in last round's win over Sharks, Walker showcased his middle forward package with 13 passes, 18 runs - 8.1m/run and 23 tackles @ 88%. How Walker impacts this game against Raiders will be fascinating as Warriors were excellent against a slower Raiders forward pack last time and Walker's speed, plus distribution could be highly influential.
Coach Webster is carrying Freddy Lussick on the bench and he got some sneaky minutes vs Sharks with Egan still at hooker. Having Walker and Lussick on the bench is possible because of the mahi that the core forwards get through. Here are the average minutes played by the core forwards...
Addin Fonua-Blake: 57.7
Tohu Harris: 66.9
Marata Niukore: 66.8
Jackson Ford: 71.4
Dylan Walker: 59.1
Mitchell Barnett: 60.3
That core group has oomph, slick passing, mobility and a splash of aggression. They have played big minutes consistently and this simplifies the role of middles like Bunty Afoa (30.5mins) and Tom Ale (25mins). Ale was promoted to start vs Sharks and had 6 runs - 35m @ 5.8m/run which is well below the 10m/run mark. Last time Ale played against Raiders, he had 7 runs - 83m @ 11.8m/run and he returns to his bench impact role this round.
Warriors also host Raiders in NSW Cup with Demitric Sifakula returning, named at lock. Whether Sifakula plays middle or edge will be interesting as Kalani Going and Selumiela (Leka) Halasima have also dabbled in middle and edge mahi this season. Halasima has a funky battle with Raiders fullback Chevy Stewart for the best youngsters in NSW Cup as they have both been playing reserve grade as 17-year-olds.
Join the Niche Cache Patreon whanau to support our kiwi sports content straight up, get a karma boost and find extra podcasts.
Every Monday and Friday we fire off an email newsletter with bonus content. Sign up here!
Peace and love.