Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Rainy Roosters & Rabbitohs
NZ Warriors slipped up against Rabbitohs to lose 6-28 at home and while wins showcase how Warriors are playing their footy this year, losses also highlight elements of Warriors footy. Losing to Rabbitohs in Auckland's rain offers a lovely comparison to a 0-14 rainy loss vs Roosters at Mt Smart earlier in the season.
Against Roosters, Warriors enjoyed 53% possession and 73% completions. This dropped to 44% possession and 69% completions against Rabbitohs. Warriors scored no points against Roosters which is partly due to a second-tier spine with Dallin Watene-Zelezniak at fullback and Dylan Walker in the halves. With the same spine that scored 30+ points in three consecutive games, Warriors managed one slick try vs Rabbitohs...
Keep that play tucked away for future reference. Warriors struggled to stay down the Rabbitohs end on Friday night and one forced drop out compared to four against Roosters lays this out. A stink completion rate combined with no pressure building isn't how Warriors have played most of their footy this season.
In both rainy games, Warriors have struggled against bigger teams. Roosters only had one little bloke in Luke Keary for their win earlier this season. In Thursday's Niche Cast, I pondered how Addin Fonua-Blake, Tohu Harris and Dylan Walker would need to be the best forwards on the park for Warriors to win. Instead it was Cameron Murray who owned the middle in a strong forward pack alongside Tevita Tatola, Thomas Burgess and Keaon Koloamatangi
Rabbitohs had Hame Sele, Shaquai Mitchell and Davvy Moale coming off the bench. The Warriors bench had Walker, Bayley Sironen, Tom Ale and Freddy Lussick. Lussick didn't play, while Walker and Sironen are not big boppers. Ale isn’t a big forward and has impressed thanks to his power/mobility combo, especially alongside bigger forwards.
In two rainy losses, the winning team was bigger and had more big boppers. Given how Warriors play winning footy, this should not be surprising as Warriors thrive in games when their smaller forwards can get busy shifting the footy or hitting holes. This is most evident in Walker's mahi as he had just one pass against Rabbitohs, well below the 10+ pass mark that he and Tohu Harris consistently hit this season.
Combine that with less running oomph from the lads who usually take Warriors down the field...
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad: 16 runs - 118m @ 7.3m/run
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak: 11 runs - 99m @ 9m/run
Marcelo Montoya: 16 runs - 105m @ 6.5m/run
Addin Fonua-Blake: 16 runs - 139m @ 8.6m/run
Less possession means less runs and running metres for all players, which is why the efficiency is more interesting. Fonua-Blake has barely dipped below 10m/run this season and the back-three sit in a similar zone, which forms four-five tackles of a set of six.
Shaun Johnson had 15 kicks and Luke Metcalf offered one kick. For Rabbitohs, Cody Walker had 13 kicks and Lachlan Ilias had 12 kicks. That split in kicking mahi can work in dry conditions for Warriors, especially when they are rolling down field and defenders are scrambling. Two kickers for Rabbitohs allowed them to dictate where the game was played and create attacking opportunities given how tricky it was to hold the ball.
This was also the first time this season that Johnson has not had a try, a try assist, a linebreak and a tackle bust. Johnson ticked all those boxes in the win over Dragons and he has ticked at least one of those boxes in every game this season, prior to the loss vs Rabbitohs.
Players who made 20+ tackles without a miss vs Rabbitohs: Rocco Berry, Adam Pompey, Bunty Afoa, Tohu Harris (51 tackles!), Dylan Walker.
The way Roosters and Rabbitohs have entered/exited these wins over Warriors is intriguing. Roosters had a loss and win before the Warriors game, then they lost three games in a row. Rabbitohs lost four in five games before defeating Warriors. Roosters and Rabbitohs didn’t play their best footy against Warriors, they stripped away the funk and zoned in on winning a few key aspects of wet-weather footy.
Roosters and Rabbitohs have shown that when they weren't forced into that style of simple footy, they have struggled. This differs to Warriors who are at their best delivering more complex plans, strategies and styles. Warriors now have two wet-weather games to learn from, however they also have numerous examples of how their style of footy has worked this season. Moving forward requires balance and learning, although they may not play in such conditions again this season.
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Peace and love.