Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Hopefully Bouncing Back vs Eels
Last weekend's loss to Rabbitohs was a bummer for NZ Warriors as they need as many points as possible in the jam-packed NRL ladder. Conditions and a classy Rabbitohs outfit worked against Warriors, although that would have been a different challenge if Rabbitohs were battling State of Origin like Parramatta Eels are this weekend.
Warriors now have a better away record (5-3) than their home record (4-4) ahead of the trip to Sydney to face Eels on Saturday evening. Eels will be playing without Clinton Gutherson, Mitchell Moses and Reagan Campbell-Gillard who were called up to the New South Wales squad. Warriors may also be missing Shaun Johnson to balance things out, however this is an ideal time to take on Eels in Sydney.
Plugging the Johnson hole can be done by moving Ronald Volkman into the halfback slot or shifting Dylan Walker into the halves alongside Luke Metcalf. Coach Andrew Webster hasn't offered Volkman a steady opportunity when Warriors are missing a starting half and this could lead to Walker's move. A halves pair of Volkman and Metcalf seems like the best option though and a young combo that Warriors folks should be excited about having.
This is amplified by the loss to Rabbitohs in which Warriors struggled to control the game in a variety of ways, one of which was the kicking. Johnson basically did all the kicking against Rabbitohs and this is similar to how Eels often operate with Moses, however it allows opposition teams to load up pressure on the kicker while also restricting where kicks can go.
Volkman and Metcalf can share kicking duties. Metcalf and Walker limits the variety of kicking Warriors can deploy. Unless there is rain in Sydney, this won't matter as much as it did in Auckland last weekend but it's still something to watch out for as Warriors build through the season.
The loss to Rabbitohs featured a lacklustre running performance from the Warriors back three and this probably won't be repeated against Eels. Cody Walker offered a creative short kicking game and Lachlan Illias did a great job of pinning Warriors close to the sidelines with his long kicks. This allowed Rabbitohs to condense their defensive line, get three or four blokes in a tackle and limit Warriors metres.
Against Rabbitohs, Warriors maintained their general kicking plan of Johnson landing kicks on the 10m line. Many of this kicks landed in the middle third though where Rabbitohs could bounce either way and start their sets with momentum. Eels have Daearn Asi at halfback and Ryan Matterson alongside him, a kicking combination that isn't in the same realm as Illias/Walker. This should allow Warriors to gather metres early in their sets.
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad had 118m vs Rabbitohs, his third game below 160m in 14 appearances this season. Nicoll-Klokstad had 114m vs Roosters when he played just 53 minutes and 124m vs Storm when he played just 55mins. The loss vs Rabbitohs was the first time this season in which Nicoll-Klokstad had less than 160m while playing 80mins.
Marcelo Montoya's 105m vs Rabbitohs was also a season-low. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak had 99m vs Rabbitohs which was slightly higher than his 95m vs Raiders. In his last five games, Watene-Zelezniak has three games over 200m and two below 100m. Both Warriors wingers had season-lows for post contact metres against Rabbitohs.
Nicoll-Klokstad (185m/game) and Montoya (152m/game) are having career-best seasons for running metres, while Watene-Zelezniak (163m/game) is in his second best running season. Warriors are fifth for kick return metres which doesn't include what happens in the next two-three runs. The team's ranking combined with the individual mahi tells the story of how important these lads are in building a set.
Warriors weren't that bad defensively against Rabbitohs, their issues were the creative kicking of Rabbitohs and errors/penalties down the other end. Missing 16 tackles, Warriors were well below their season average of 30.7 and they are still a good tackling team, now ranked 15th for missed tackles.
Eels still have a bunch of rugged forwards who need to be wrapped up. Eels are third for post contact metres and first for offloads, which sums up how Eels play their footy. How Warriors contain the running and offloading will be crucial in winning this game, especially because Eels are also 17th for completion rate and second for errors. If Warriors can contain Eels runners and embrace the set-for-set grind, Eels will give Warriors attacking opportunities.
After last round's performance, Warriors will be eager to showcase their shapes and attacking mahi. This will be extra funky if Walker stays in the middle as his speed and passing will be dangerous against big Eels forwards. With or without Walker in the forwards, the passing of Tohu Harris and Addin Fonua-Blake is nifty enough to cause chaos.
NSW Cup Warriors also play against Eels in Sydney after a win over Rabbitohs last round. Warriors are now fourth on 21 points and Eels are 10th on 17 points which highlights how close the NSW Cup ladder is and how important this game is for Warriors. If Volkman is promoted to NRL, expect Eiden Ackland to play in the halves alongside Ben Farr.
Taine Tuaupiki vs Rabbitohs: 27 runs - 232m @ 8.6m/run, 1 try assist, 6 tackle busts, 2 offloads, 4 tackles @ 100%.
Tuaupiki averages 163m/game in NSW Cup with a try assist in four consecutive games and 6+ tackle busts in six consecutive games.
Zyon Maiu'u is averaging 105m/game and tackling at 90.8%. The 20-year-old forward has been starting prop for 16 games with 30+ minutes in every game.
While still at Southern Cross Campus, Selumiela (Leka) Halasima has played middle and edge forward as well as centre in NSW Cup this season. Halasima has played 80mins in four of his last five games - all of which is bonkers. This increased game time has seen Halasima miss more tackles but he churned out 19 runs - 155m @ 8.1m/run with 5 tackle busts vs Rabbitohs. Halasima has 3+ tackle busts in each of his last four games.
Solomon Vasuvulagi has now played six consecutive games of NSW Cup, playing 40+ minutes in five of them. The Glenora big bopper is building into his mahi and along with Maiu'u and Halasima, Vasuvulagi is an emerging forward to keep a track of. Add Demitric Sifakula into this equation who hasn't played for a few weeks and Warriors have a production line of young, aggressive, powerful young forwards waiting for their opportunities.
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Peace and love.