Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Finals Preview vs Broncos
Next up in the 2023 NZ Warriors NRL season is a trip to Brisbane to face Broncos and the dirty secret of Warriors bolstering crowds for Aussie teams will again be on display. Games late in the season against Titans and Dolphins were both played in south east Queensland where Warriors fans drowned out home crowds. Warriors have played a few games in Brisbane this yet including the loss to Dolphins, while their only game against Broncos was a loss in Napier.
Everyone was tripping about Broncos missing their best players for that encounter as it was played during the State of Origin period. Broncos were missing Reece Walsh, Selwyn Cobbo, Payne Haas, Patrick Carrigan and Thomas Flegler. This framed the entire storyline of the round 13 clash and Broncos winning without their best players was dished up as a hefty positive for them, while being a stink negative for NZ Warriors.
NZ Warriors were in the exact same position as Broncos though, missing five players who are in their top-17. Wayde Egan wasn't playing for Warriors against Broncos and we have all learned how important Egan's craft is at dummy half. Te Maire Martin was out injured with Luke Metcalf making his first appearance of the season in the halves alongside Shaun Johnson. Regardless of who you think is better in this role, Metcalf struggled in a disjointed performance before building his game with consistent opportunities.
Broncos had three of their four spine players in that round 13 win with Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam and Billy Walters steering the team around. Warriors had two in Johnson and Nicoll-Klokstad. Warriors were also missing Mitchell Barnett and Dylan Walker, who like Egan have steadily shown their value over the course of the season. Very few NRL forwards will physically dominate Barnett who is now named at starting prop for this finals encounter and The Niche Cache has documented Walker's unique skillset all season.
Jazz Tevaga is a certified top-17 Warrior and he wasn't playing when Warriors lost to Broncos. Do Warriors get to claim the 'baby Warriors' headline like Broncos do? Both teams were missing the same number of top-17 players and while Aussies love to celebrate their State of Origin vibe, Warriors were missing players of similar importance to Broncos in Napier.
The other key takeaway from that encounter, apart from it highlighting Aotearoa's love for rugby league as one of many monster crowds in regional Aotearoa, was Warriors dipping below their consistent level of performance. Warriors had less possession (48%) than Broncos and offered a relatively horrible completion rate of 70% in a game where Warriors had more run metres, post contact metres, tackle breaks, linebreaks, kick return metres, offloads as well as more tackles made with less missed tackles than Broncos.
Warriors lost that game because they didn't take their opportunities. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Rocco Berry fumbled try-scoring chances for example, neither of which feels likely vs Broncos given their current form. Warriors didn't have a forced drop out against Broncos either and we saw the importance of this in building pressure against Knights, as well as the opposite in losing to Panthers where Warriors barely spent a minute down the Panthers end.
Broncos are a fabulous team, on par with Panthers for their rugby league excellence this season. The worst tackler for Broncos is Mam who will probably be defending on the same edge as Marata Niukore. Mam tackled at 74% against Warriors last time and while Adam Clune tackled at a respectable 87% for Knights last weekend, Warriors showed the blueprint of breaking down opposition edges.
Clune kept making brave tackles on Niukore and Warriors kept scoring points. Mam will flex his mana in tackling Niukore or Berry hitting a hole, but Warriors will challenge defensive decision-making just as much as the mana to make tackles. Mam defends alongside Kurt Capewell who averages 3.6 missed tackles per game, second to Mam's 4.5 mt/game so expect the full quiver of Warriors shape on their right edge.
Broncos did a good job of condensing their defensive line in Napier to stifle Warriors shape. Rushing the middle passers like Tohu Harris and Addin Fonua-Blake with different defensive 'pictures' before cluttering the passing lanes out wide. Warriors didn't have Egan working his magic around the ruck, nor did they have Walker's distribution coming off the bench. If Broncos present the same defensive structure, expect Warriors to find space out wide through shape variations and/or kicks behind Broncos wingers.
Reece Walsh and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad are different fullbacks. At this stage of the season, most Warriors folks would prefer the class of Nicoll-Klokstad for this team under coach Andrew Webster. Nicoll-Klokstad takes two runs in most sets, he mops up everything out the back and he plays a sneaky role in Warriors shape on their right edge. The calm, composed presence of Nicoll-Klokstad flows throughout the team and he has Grand Final mana.
Walsh was second for errors in the NRL last season for NZ Warriors with 38 overall, averaging 1.7 errors per game. This season Walsh is first for errors with 48 overall and 2.4 errors per game. Walsh is joined by Selwyn Cobbo who was third for errors last season and third again this season; Walsh and Cobbo are top-three for errors in the last two seasons.
This wrinkle was on display against Knights as Dominic Young is second for errors this season with 45 overall and 1.8 per game. Young made two errors against Warriors last weekend, close to his average tally per game. Walsh and Cobbo balance out their errors with their exceptional talent, but they will make at least one error each against Warriors which will present an opportunity.
Compare this to Panthers who have Sunia Turuva leading them for errors. Turuva is ranked 41st overall but only averages 0.9 errors per game and Panthers have no player averaging over 1.4 errors per game. Panthers do not present many, if any opportunities to their opposition as Warriors experienced for most of their week tahi finals game. Broncos are the only team to rival Panthers this season but they will present opportunities for NZ Warriors if they are good enough to pounce on them.
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Peace and love.