Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Back At Mt Smart vs Knights & Shuffling Juniors
After the festival vs Raiders in Christchurch, New Zealand Warriors return to Mt Smart where the faithful will have their chance to respond to the Christchurch crowd against Knights on Sunday afternoon. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck slots in at fullback to cover Taine Tuaupiki's absence and this coincides with the return of Wayde Egan which may offer more opportunities to plow through the middle against Knights, especially as Marata Niukore has arrived for his first appearance of the season.
NZW now have a few games under coach Andrew Webster against Raiders and they have no problems shifting the Raiders around, whether it's through their regular shape or challenging defenders away from the ball who may switch off. This is most evident in Tom Ale having a linebreak against Raiders in two of their last three games, as well as various linebreaks in the wider channels for lots of NZW players.
Last week's win over Raiders didn't feature much dummy half running though. Freddy Lussick had two scoots for 5m and Tuivasa-Sheck had one dummy half run for 9m, meaning NZW had three dummy half runs for 14m. NZW didn't need to get busy from dummy half against Raiders because there was space elsewhere and Egan wasn't playing that game. Now NZW take on Knights with a double-whammy of possible dummy half funk in the return of Egan and Tuivasa-Sheck loitering around the ruck where his footwork makes him almost unstoppable.
This could be boosted by Niukore if he plays through the middle as is expected with Jackson Ford and Kurt Capewell holding down edge spots. Niukore can cover the edges but he is likely to form the tight five middle forward rotation with the three starters and Dylan Walker. Niukore's brutal running through the middle can scatter defenders and create space for Egan at dummy half, which compliments the small forward in Walker.
These NZW notes are amplified by the Knights who look like food for the hungus Mt Smart faithful (averages per game)...
Tries: 16th
Set Completion: 15th
Errors: 3rd
Penalties Conceded: 3rd
Those stats have Knights at opposite ends of the NRL rankings and that's not good for Knights. Only the Titans average less tries than Knights and being third for errors means they have one of the worst completion rates in the competition. After three games this season, Knights struggle to score tries and complete their sets while also conceding lots of penalties.
Knights can play above this level and they may be desperate to rectify these stats. The most intriguing thing here is that these Knights stats align nicely with the NZW grind which worked so well against Raiders. If NZW can settle into their flow, Knights will cough up possession eventually and they are likely to concede penalties when NZW are winning the ruck battle.
Sign up for our Monday/Friday newsletter because there is always some kind of NZW nugget such as these notes about Shaun Johnson’s kicking | running | tackling stats and the middle forward minutes...
2022
11th - 344km/game | 49m/game | 87.89% tackling
2023
1st - 524km/game | 60m/game | 90.82% tackling
2024
2nd - 523km/game | 76m/game | 81.69% tackling
Tohu Harris
2023: 68mins
2024: 75.3mins
Addin Fonua-Blake
2023: 59.8mins
2024: 51.7mins
Mitchell Barnett
2023: 58.9mins
2024: 56mins
Given the stat profile of Knights and how NZW operate, Johnson's kicking game will be crucial in keeping Knights down their end of the field. Ideally NZW can get Kalyn Ponga on the back foot and whack him once he gathers any kick, but Ponga will probably look for his wingers to cart the footy up. How Johnson targets the Knights back three with his kicks will be funky as he has a few options available, plus Knights average 152 kick return metres while NZW average 222 kick return metres per game.
The middle minutes also set up this encounter with the return of Niukore. There has been a decrease in minutes for Addin Fonua-Blake which may continue with Niukore adding oomph to the forward pack, perhaps even less minutes for Barnett who has had a slight decrease. However coach Webster uses his bench forwards, there is an enticing variety of forwards on the bench; Niukore and Bunty Afoa can play similar roles but with different body shapes while Walker is quicker and more skillful.
NZW aren't tracking so well across the grades this season but that isn't a major issue as players are coming in and out of the various teams. It's actually quite exciting when the NSW Cup forward pack is predominantly made up of youngsters who are pushing into the wider NRL mixer and this week Pikiao junior Harry Durbin is named to leap up from U21 Jersey Flegg to NSW Cup along with Pt Chevalier's Jacob Auloa who makes a bigger leap between U19s and NSW Cup.
The starting forward pack has Zyon Maiu'u, Tanner Stowers-Smith, Eddie Ieremia-Toeava and Jacob Laban who were all U19 last year, so they are probably U21s this year. Add in Durbin who has a spot on the bench as a middle forward and Auloa who will cover hooker, plus keep in mind that Demitric Sifakula and Leka Halasima aren't in action at the moment.
Durbin is the first major promotion from U21s to NSW Cup, although everything can change when the teams run out for game time. Auloa moves up from U19s to NSW Cup and he seems to have been seleced ahead of Etuate Fukofuka who is listed as starting hooker for U21s this week. This may be thanks to the amount of footy they have played as Auloa is in a week to week groove, while Fukofuka has only played one game of U21s and is yet to feature in NSW Cup.
Things get tricky because the teams named don't have many changes but the announcements via Warriors.kiwi highlight a bunch of promotions as the U19 season winds down. Kayliss Fatialofa, Sio Kali, Rodney Tuipulotu-Vea, Motu Pasikala and Alvin Chong Nee are all listed as moving up from U19s to U21s. The promotion of Pasikala is the funkiest here as he has showcased his power and timing at fullback for the U19s, which now opens up a spot for Meihana Pauling to play fullback in the U19s team.
Slide back to last week's storyline of rugby league thriving in Canterbury and where does Pauling come from? Christchurch. Pauling is a Halswell junior and like many juniors from the South Island, he has a decorated NZRL representative journey.
The next few weeks will be a key juncture for NZW juniors. U19 SG Ball footy wraps up and it will be interesting to see where the abundance of NZW juniors play their footy this winter. Some lads may stick to school footy (1st 15 or league) and those who aren't in the top-tier U21 Jersey Flegg group may dabble in Fox Memorial footy against men.
NZW have no shortage of youngsters in their pipeline and this is evident in the number of players who step into U19/U21s having not moved up from a lower grade. Pauling is an example of this and most of the players filling spots in U19s this week as others move up a grade, haven't been playing U17s Harold Matthews. This means NZW have a full stash of youngsters in the junior pipeline and while it's tricky to keep up with what must be 30+ lads in the wider U19 mix, this is the abundance of juniors that NZW fans have always wanted.
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