Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Early Season Deep Dive
New Zealand Warriors played three games against Sea Eagles on Saturday at Mt Smart and came away with one point, from two losses and a draw. The NRL team battled through one of their worst performances of the season and somehow found a 22-22 draw, after the NSW Cup team lost 18-24 and the Under 21 Jersey Flegg Cup team lost 16-20.
Things improved on Sunday with the Under 17 Harold Matthews Cup team grabbing a 30-20 win in their finals game vs Eels. Balance that out with an Under 19 SG Ball Cup team who finished 12th and didn't make finals for a muddling, kinda confusing NZ Warriors landscape to start 2024.
NRL: 7th (3-2-1)
NSW Cup: 10th (2-4)
U21s: 13th (0-5)
U19s: 12th (3-5-1)
U17s: 6th (5-3) into finals week two
None of that looks impressive, especially compared to last season's comprehensive mahi across the top two grades. NZW returned to Jersey Flegg this season and haven't won a game, which is countered by making the finals in their first ever season of Harold Matthews footy. Despite the underwhelming start to this year, NZW are still impressive under coach Andrew Webster and competitive depth with all sorts of fringe-ish NZW lads playing in Fox Memorial, are solid foundations for optimism entering the winter months.
First of all, Sea Eagles are a pesky opposition for NZW and the Mt Smart vibe is tricky. NZW have played various teams a few times under coach Webster which allows us to build out themes of opposition teams. Playing against Raiders comes with confidence that NZW can attack holes across the park and in this era, NZW have been able to score points fairly comfortably against Raiders. Knights can be dominated physically as NZW have done a couple times over the past year.
NZW can rip some teams apart around the ruck, other teams can be mesmerized by passing shapes to attack gaps and others concede tries in the corners. Confidence diminishes for games against Storm and Panthers, while Roosters usually win against NZW no matter what their form is like. Maybe it's Daly Cherry-Evans's unpredictable attacking footy, bursts of speed from Tom Trbojevic, lads like Josh Aloiai and Toafofoa Sipley playing against their hometown team or Anthony Seibold's coaching; Sea Eagles always give NZW issues.
The main issue in the draw over the weekend was a strange off night. NZW fumbled possession, had weird lapses in concentration and couldn't roll through attacking shapes. In summary, Tohu Harris made a play-the-ball error right before Shaun Johnson was lining up a droppie to win the game. If Harris is making big errors, Papatuanuku and Ranginui are not working in favour of NZW.
A few weaknesses of Sea Eagles footy kept NZW in this game. Sea Eagles are second for average missed tackles and errors per game after round six. This ensured that NZW were always a chance of scoring points and ultimately, they came back from 0-16 down to finish with a draw. There can be no questions about NZW effort, attitude and mana in competing with fizzed up NRL teams.
NZW have played four home games this season. The game vs Raiders in Christchurch highlighted how the home advantage stretches down south and NZW followed that with the best game at Mt Smart this season where NZW defeated Knights. Two other games at Mt Smart have been less magical though with the first up loss against Sharks and this draw against Sea Eagles.
All three games at Mt Smart have drawn over 23,000 folks. Games against Sharks and Knights had crowds over 24,000 before dipping down to 23,076 vs Sea Eagles. The worst performances of this season have come at Mt Smart in front of big crowds (anything over 20,000 is epic in NZ sport). That doesn't make much sense and this is amplified by the disparity in atmosphere from the Sharks game to the latest outing vs Sea Eagles.
Having these crowd figures will always lead to an exciting atmosphere. Remember that the loss to Sharks had an awkward announcing situation and it's a bit weird how much that has changed over a few weeks. Against Sea Eagles it was as if the ground volume was turned down a notch and while this may be better or may not even be a thing, it is at least aligned with two stink performances at the temple. Somehow NZW have all three possible results in three games at Mt Smart; loss, win, draw.
The NRL team will keep building towards better footy. All involved have earned our faith and plenty of players have been used in the opening rounds, making it tricky to execute plays and skills. Depth has steadily been mentioned about NZW this season and as exciting as this is, specifically the number of players in each position across the top three grades battling for game time, using NRL depth weakens the NSW Cup team.
NSW Cup Warriors won the first game of the season with Te Maire Martin and Chanel Harris-Tavita in the halves, Jazz Tevaga at prop and Jacob Laban at edge forward. All four of those lads played NRL vs Sea Eagles and it's all groovy when everyone is available for the NRL team, but when depth is tested these players leave holes in NSW Cup; Ben Farr and Paul Roache played in the halves vs Sea Eagles after playing fullback and hooker in round one.
This can be the difference between winning and losing at the levels below NRL. Winning games below NRL can be a celebration of a strong system but NSW Cup success usually depends on how many NRL-calibre players are lining up each week in reserve grade.
The outside backs for NZW NSWC are all ready to fill spots in NRL. Taine Tuapiki, Ali Leiataua, Ed Kosi and Moala Graham-Taufa have all played NRL, while Setu Tu is capable of stepping up. Even in this outside back group there was 18-year-old Sio Kali making his debut at centre last week and no one should be stressing about NSWC results when the team is stacked with young talent.
Kayliss Fatialofa made his NSWC debut alongside Kali last week after both started the year in U19s. With respect to Freddie Lussick, his suspension allows Jacob Auloa to get more game time in reserve grade. Auloa also started in U19s this year and he rolled through 65 minutes at hooker against Sea Eagles, making 42 tackles @ 100%.
Young forwards Zyon Maiu'u, Tanner Stowers-Smith and Eddie Ieremia-Toeava are grinding through NSWC footy despite being eligible for U21s. Harry Durbin made his NSWC debut last week with Kali and Fatialofa, but Durbin started this year in U21s. Along with older lads who are still hunting NRL opportunities such as Kalani Going and Toni Tupouniua, the NSWC team is flush with youngsters learning their carft.
Leka Halasima sums everything up though. Halasima played his first game of NSWC this season at edge forward and rather effortlessly, he churned out 80mins in his return from injury. Halasima scored the type of try that showcased his potential, putting NZW in the lead and sending a wave of buzz through all hearty NZW fans watching reserve grade. Unfortunately, Halasima then made an error and conceded his third penalty for 'late/dangerous' tackles which gave Sea Eagles the chance they needed to win.
What made this extra creepy (in a low key exciting way) was that Halasima smiled the whole time and appeared to be having fun back on the footy field. Halasima finished with two errors, three penalties conceded and was placed on report for two different incidents. Not his finest outing but it was his first outing in NSWC this season so he was probably a bit too fizzed up. Halasima has shown no indications of bad vibes and the current NZW culture won't accept any kinda bad vibes, so let's put this down as a learning moment for Halasima.
There is lots of learning happening around the entry to NSWC for NZW as players are being promoted from U19s, U21s and Fox Memorial. Every player is different and at different stages of development in being ready to play NRL at the required level. NZW appear to be putting players in the best position for them and this requires increased quality in Fox Memorial, as well as a full squad of Jersey Flegg spots available.
The NSWC team features lots of lads who are under 21-years-old and there are U21s playing Fox Memorial, which suggests that we should not take Jersey Flegg results too seriously. This suggestion has grown in recent weeks with SG Ball footy finishing and various U19 lads moving up to U21s, as well as shifting into Fox Memorial.
Key players who have moved up from U19s to U21s: Motu Pasikala (fullback), Sio Kali (centre), Rodney Tuipulotu-Vea (middle), Alvin Chong Nee (middle/edge), Jason Salalilo (middle/edge). Auloa and Fatialofa have also moved up from U19s to U21s/NSWC.
At this stage it is not clear if Jersey Flegg is ranked higher than Fox Memorial and it seems to be based on the needs of individual players. SG Ball winger Ratu Naborisi lined up for Pt Chevalier in their loss to Mt Albert over the weekend and Mt Albert had William Piliu and Noah Harmer-Campbell who have both played Jersey Flegg this year, plus Malachi Filipo and Lyrakai-Layke Posimani who played SG Ball.
In other games from the weekend, Otahuhu had Cassius Cowley and Ben Peni who have played Jersey Flegg this year while Howick had Kalani Peyroux-Donaldson, Francis Tuimauga and Te Waaka Popata-Henare from SG Ball. There are obvious connections between NZW and various Fox Memorial teams that NZW are making the most of to have their surplus of juniors playing against men in Auckland.
This includes players from Christchurch such as Harmer-Campbell and Uriah Tuli, who has also played for Mt Albert this year but isn't in any NZW teams. Makaia Tafua is a hooker from Christchurch who has played Jersey Flegg as well as playing for Otahuhu. Along with the investment of funding three junior teams (U21s and below), NZW have a surplus of talent that flows into Fox Memorial.
Two examples that may offer insight into the NZW system are Luke Hanson and Toby Crosby. Hanson is an exciting young half who moved from Panthers to NZW for this season and he has strictly been used in Jersey Flegg. Crosby was playing premier grade rugby union in Wellington last year and he has only played Jersey Flegg this season. Hanson's played SG Ball and Jersey Flegg for Panthers last year, while Crosby is new two league; two different backgrounds but they both benefit from consistent footy against other U21 lads as well as the grind of playing in Australia every second week.
Most importantly, NZW have options available to them in how they develop juniors. This also points to the sneaky depth that is brewing in Mt Smart as NZW have extra juniors outside the NSWC/Jersey Flegg teams every week. The tricky thing right now is breaking down how each level is ranked, which means that some of the best juniors on the rise to NSWC may be playing Fox Memorial at the moment.
NZW have never had such a comprehensive junior system as they have in 2024. The number of juniors who are at least linked to NZW is too much to break down how lads are ranked and offer a depth chart diving deep into the pipeline. The best zone to focus on is which lads enter NSWC as the best youngsters are already there, plus there are lads like Auloa, Durbin, Kali and Fatialofa who have snapped up opportunities this season.
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