Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Preview Notes vs Dragons
New Zealand Warriors have played some of their best footy this season in Australia and after battling to a draw with Sea Eagles at Mt Smart, they will now be eager to improve against Dragons on Friday night. A few big ideas were covered in this yarn after NZW had two losses and a draw vs Sea Eagles across the top three grades. In this Aotearoa Warriors Diary the focus is on details to watch out for against Dragons.
Dragons present an intriguing challenge which starts with elements working in favour of NZW. While NZW are third for average set completion percentage per game, Dragons are 16th and this continues for kick return metres where NZW are ranked second while Dragons are 16th. NZW love to complete sets and pin their opponent down their end of the field, with these stats highlighting how NZW could grind Dragons down.
This is balanced by Dragons (16th) averaging less missed tackles per game than NZW (12th). For penalties conceded, NZW are 15th and Dragons are 16th. There is not a concerning gap in these two stats but Dragons will rip in at their home ground and aside from Dragons being first for average errors per game, NZW will have to work hard to score points and gain a territory advantage.
For whatever reason, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Jackson Ford offered numerous mishaps against Sea Eagles. Tuivasa-Sheck had a two errors and Ford had three, putting them as the only NZW players in the top-50 for average errors per game with Tuivasa-Sheck averaging 1.5 errors per game and Ford averaging 1.3.
Tuivasa-Sheck probably won't make two errors in a game again and his average should dip as his quality is undeniable. Ford always feels capable of making an error, especially when he is hitting a short pass at the defensive line. These errors were part of a below-par performance vs Sea Eagles and as a team, NZW are 12th for errors per game with a fabulous completion rate so this is not a major issue.
Ford played 75 of the 90 minutes vs Sea Eagles with Jacob Laban coming off the bench to play middle then left edge. This provides an insight into the development route for Laban who has to be able to play middle as well as both edges to keep his spot on the bench. Laban as primarily operated at right edge and it's not easy to maintain slick mahi on both sides of the field in short bursts, let alone churning out rugged middle forward oomph.
Various players in the NZW system have showcased utility value in covering edge and middle. Marata Niukore, Demitric Sifakula and Kalani Going have gathered repetitions across NRL and NSW Cup in both roles. Most, if not all of Laban's game time in NSW Cup has been at edge forward and now he is learning how to play three different roles in limited game time at the NRL level.
Watch out for Laban's role against Dragons as he is the biggest lad on the bench. Tom Ale is the main middle forward selected on the bench, Chanel Harris-Tavita is a versatile utility and Adam Pompey? Well, Pompey is selected in NRL and NSW Cup this weekend with the NSW Cup Warriors (and Jersey Flegg) playing in Sydney against Dragons on Saturday. Maybe Pompey is juiced up on mana and he can play both, but the presence of Zyon Maiu'u could forecast matters here.
If Laban creeps on to the bench vs Dragons, NZW would have Ale and Maiu'u as middles with Laban covering edge and middle. That seems better than carrying Pompey on the bench and Maiu'u has featured in lots of Niche Cache content so there are no excuses for not knowing much about him.
Against Sea Eagles, NZW had four players running out of dummy half with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Te Maire Martin running over 10, while Tuivasa-Sheck ran for 8m. Wayde Egan led this though with 9 DHR - 94m which is excellent and Egan had three times as many DHR as Tigers in their loss vs Dragons (3 DHR - 27m). Considering how Tigers performed with a lack of DHR, expect NZW to be busy scooting from dummy half.
Egan has 90+ running metres in the last two games, along with 74m vs Knights. This boosts Egan average running metres and he is averaging 71m/game this season, up from 51m/game last season. Egan is also tackling at 95% efficiency for the first season since his debut in 2018.
Expect a better balance between Shaun Johnson and Te Maire Martin vs Dragons after Johnson was far busier than Martin vs Sea Eagles...
Shaun Johnson: 92 touches, 21 runs, 21 kicks
Te Maire Martin: 41 touches, 11 runs
The grind of centre battles continues for Rocco Berry...
vs Knights: Bradman Best
vs Rabbitohs: Jack Wighton
vs Sea Eagles: Tolutau Koula
vs Dragons: Moses Suli (maybe Zac Lomax but probably not)
The need for forwards in the NRL squad is flowing down to NSW Cup and the initial team named features an exciting crop of young forwards. Leka Halasima isn't named and is probably suspended, while Maiu'u is named at starting prop but that could change. Regular youngsters Tanner Stowers-Smith and Eddie Ieremia-Toeava are joined by Harry Durbin who is named as a starting middle, plus Toby Crosby is named on the bench after starting the season in U21s.
Quinnlan Tupou is another youngster to keep tabs on as he is a powerful runner with the mobility to play centre, as well as offering enough power to play as an edge forward or maybe providing impact through the middle.
Another minor wrinkle is Etuate Fukofuka getting more game time as a small forward, playing in U21s with hookers Makaia Tafua and Jeriko Filipi. NZW have depth in every position and are building depth in specific roles, which may become evident in Fukofuka brewing as a skillful/powerful middle forward.
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