Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Don't Play Like Panthers vs Panthers

The New Zealand Warriors take on Penrith Panthers in the NRL's Magic Round once again and while team changes were forced upon coach Andrew Webster, they may work out nicely in shaking things up. NZW played Panthers twice last year for two losses and a 12-50 points tally so there is no reason to elevate expectations for this encounter.

Balancing that realistic perspective is that the NZW system has struggled this season and for each game of this losing streak the flaws have become more and more evident. Some believe that Shaun Johnson is irreplaceable and many view his injury as a hefty blow to NZW, yet the NZW attacking system revolves around Johnson and this system clearly isn't working at the moment.

Johnson averages 64.2 receipts this season which is a slight increase on last season and far more than most seasons in his career. Johnson also does most, if not all of the kicking for NZW and is first in the NRL for kicking metres as the only bloke over 5,000 kicking metres (5,534). Sliding back to second for average kicking metres per game, Johnson joins Jamal Fogarty as the only players averaging over 550 kicking metres per game.

All of that is fabulous when NZW are winning and the system is breaking down their opponent in terms of attacking shape and winning the territory battle through long kicking. None of that is helping NZW win games right now though and instead of last year's clinical shape with all sorts of options, plus a comfort in patiently grinding down their opponent, this year NZW have clunky shape and the set for set grind seems rather passive.

NZW are not playing well with Johnson having that many touches and doing all the kicking. Now Johnson is out injured there needs to be changes in how NZW operate. The combination of a simplified attacking set up and more variety in how NZW kick, as well as shift the footy could be a boost for this game against Panthers.

This is especially the case because many elements of NZW footy come from Webster's time with Panthers. The basic NRL game plan is a mediocre version of how Panthers operate, while the junior pipeline is on track to genuinely resemble the plethora of talent that Panthers have to refresh their NRL squad each year. Playing like Panthers vs Panthers didn't work last year and given how stinky NZW footy has looked over the past few months, it wasn't going to work this weekend either.

You wouldn't have read about Taine Tuaupiki's expanded role in NSW Cup anywhere else and that is now useful as Tuaupiki is named at fullback, with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad playing in the halves alongside Te Maire Martin. Nicoll-Klokstad is a better defensive option and he is likely to run the footy more than Martin or Luke Metcalf.

Metcalf went from 81m/game last season to 55m/game this season, while Martin increased his output from 43m/game to 74m/game. Expect Nicoll-Klokstad to have more runs with his footwork and power adding oomph to the left edge. Nicoll-Klokstad probably won't do much kicking and Martin is primed to do most of the kicking, having won both NSW Cup games in which he started at halfback.

Martin averaged 221.83 kicking metres in three games of NSW Cup and Tuaupiki averaged 208.46 kicking metres in his five games of NSW Cup. The NSW Cup Warriors lost two games when Tuaupiki was fullback and he had less than 30 kicking metres, then they had two wins and a draw with Tuaupiki kicking for 200+ metres as fullback. Add in Wayde Egan who can add an extra kicker but doesn't usually boot the ball when Johnson's playing for three lads who can split the kicking duties.

Tuaupiki also offers speed and NZW do not have any fast blokes without him. This is the most important attribute for Tuaupiki and while this can be useful in returning kicks, his zip will be most evident when he appears around the ruck or in attacking shape. Perhaps simplified shape will aim to get Tuaupiki a bit of space on the edges and his ability to break tackles could be crucial in providing a more unpredictable attacking style.

What's Leiataua been up to in NSW Cup?

  • 2023: 16 games, 10 tries, 6 try assists, 13 linebreaks, 137m/game, 83% tackling

  • 2024: 7 games, 2 tries, 3 try assists, 4 linebreaks, 118m/game, 80% tackling

Not quite has nifty as last season but the NSW Cup team are better when he is in the mix and Leiataua offers the similar enthusiasm as Jacob Laban and Zyon Maiu'u. Leiataua will probably play right edge and it will be interesting to see if Martin stays on his left edge given that Nicoll-Klokstad usually pops up on the right in attacking motions when playing fullback. If Martin plays right edge and Nicoll-Klokstad's on the left, then expect to see Tuaupiki on the right where the Taharoa combo may connect with Leiataua.

There was a bit of Toby Crosby buzz during the week after his typically robust mahi in Jersey Flegg. The tries he scored looked a lot like his 1st 15 highlights but the key wrinkle here is that Crosby's just another impressive NZW youngster and Ben Peni also scored an awesome try in that game. Crosby has been promoted to NSW Cup for this weeks game against Panthers in a reserve grade team that is flush with premier young talent.

Motu Pasikala, Sio Kali and Jacob Auloa are all Under 19 SG Ball lads named in the top-17 with Kayliss Fatialofa on the extended bench.

Crosby joins Luke Hanson (playing vs his former team) and Makaia Taufa as Under 21 Jersey Flegg lads who have already moved up to NSW Cup.

Leka Halasima could be playing SGB as he is 18-years-old, but he only plays NSW Cup and he returns after missing a few weeks. Tanner Stowers-Smith, Eddie Ieremia and Maiu'u are U21s but they only play NSW Cup and are usually churning out big minutes and big mahi against fringe NRL forwards.

The most enticing NSW Cup thing is the dummy half rotation of Tafua and Auloa, which allows Paul Roche to play in the halves ... or bumps Roache into the halves. Tafua and Auloa have stacked up a bunch of games together this season and both are U21s, for a team that has moved up to sixth on the ladder with three wins and a draw in their last four games. NZW have far more young talent than many know about and most of that young talent is already rolling through reps at the NSW Cup level.

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Written by Scott Miller On Tagged