Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Battling With 16 Players
After losing to Dragons, Titans and Knights over their last three games, NZ Warriors now take on Roosters in Sydney which is a niggly match up to try and fix this losing streak. The NSW Cup and Jersey Flegg Warriors will also line up against the Roosters but these games will be played in Auckland. Three games against Roosters for NZW offer a lovely gauge of how the organisation is tracking.
Despite a loss to Knights in the NRL last weekend, NZW had a win over Knights in NSW Cup and a draw in Jersey Flegg which means that all three NZW teams have had a draw this season. None of these teams have a winning record though and the NSW Cup outfit are the only team ranked higher than 10th on the respective ladders...
NRL: 14th | 3-5-1
NSW Cup: 7th | 4-4-1
Jersey Flegg: 12th | 2-5-1
The NZW team named to take on Roosters features the same backline with a few tweaks in the forward pack. Folks may have noticed a change in the edge forwards vs Knights as Jackson Ford flipped from the left edge to the right edge and Kurt Capewell lined up on the left. Capewell didn't last long against Knights so Mitchell Barnett filled his left edge spot and did so admirably, with Barnett named to play edge forward again this round.
NZW are battling through adversity and despite the bad vibes, they are slightly behind where they were ranked at this time last season. Switching the edge forwards suggests that they are working through their clunky system though, especially as Ford has primarily played left edge since joining NZW. Moving him to the right edge was a fairly drastic move and the type of move that reflects the current predicament.
Capewell has also been underwhelming with NZW. Averaging 55m/game is a career low for Capewell, significantly less than his 83m/game last season with Broncos and he has only dipped below 70m/game in one other season (2020 with Panthers) since making his debut in 2016.
This is Capewell's first season without a try since that debut campaign, while his nine linebreaks and 16 offloads from last season drop down to one linebreak and four offloads so far this year. With Barnett covering Capewell's absence, NZW don't lose much and this is a bit weird considering how hyped the signing of Capewell was.
Bunty Afoa moves into a starting middle forward slot and Jazz Tevaga returns to the bench. Coach Andrew Webster has named Adam Pompey on the bench again and NZW are basically playing NRL games with 16 blokes, while the opponent usually embraces their full crew of 17 lads.
For context with some of the stuff below, three of the four Knights players on their bench played 25+ minutes and the other bloke got 17mins. Titans also had three of their four bench players get 25+ minutes with the other bloke getting 14mins. Roosters have a bench of Connor Watson, Naufahu Whyte, Spencer Leniu and Terrell May who can all add to the team, with their bench vs Broncos also had three of the four lads rolling out 25+ minutes.
This is contrasted by the NZW bench. Despite playing 90 minutes in the draw vs Sea Eagles, no NZW bench players had more than 25mins. Against Dragons only one player had 25+ minutes and then the Titans game had player grabbing 25+ minutes. The Knights game had two bench lads playing 25+ minutes and as laid out below, all four games either have 'garbage time' minutes or a bench player not being used...
vs Sea Eagles - 90mins
All bench less than 25mins
vs Dragons
Adam Pompey: 5mins
Paul Roache: 3mins
vs Titans
Zyon Maiu'u: 13mins
Paul Roache: no mins
vs Knights
Adam Pompey: no mins
Carrying backline cover could be useful and the dummy half depth has been tested during this stint, but there isn't a clear plan or efficient rotation on offer. For all the chat about how NRL teams battle when a player gets injured and they lose a bench spot, NZW are willingly giving up that bench spot to play with 16 blokes. That's weird, but it covers over a funkier wrinkle of the bench middles getting less game time this season...
Bunty Afoa
2023: 29.6mins
2024: 23.5mins
Tom Ale
2023: 25.4mins
2024: 22.6mins
Jazz Tevaga
2023: 44mins
2024: 24.5mins
Not only are NZW using 16 lads or giving the 17th bloke a very brief dose of game time, the players who provide hard-running oomph or energy are getting less game time. On top of that there is the switch in edge forwards and an attacking system that is becoming a chore to watch. Now they take on Roosters who won both games vs NZW last season and are in the opposite form groove to NZW.
The development of NZW youngsters makes much more sense. Jacob Laban and Zyon Maiu'u could get more opportunities but they are being eased into the NRL grind, which is most evident in Barnett being deployed at edge forward ahead of Laban. Throwing young players into the week to week flow of rugged NRL footy sounds cool from a 'sink or swim' perspective but NZW need to prepare these lads for consistent performances and that requires patience.
This flows down throughout the pipeline. Motu Pasikala is named on the wing again in NSW Cup after starting the year in U19 SG Ball and he may line up alongside Sio Kali, meaning that NZW can have centre/edge combo of SGB lads. Makaia Tafua and Jacob Auloa are sharing dummy half duties, plus Kayliss Fatialofa is another SGB junior who played less than 35mins in his first two NSW Cup game and now has back to back games of 45+ minutes.
Luke Hanson isn't named this round in NSW Cup after battling injury and his development is aligned with how NZW are building players up to perform at higher levels. Hanson played SG Ball last year with Panthers and started this year in Jersey Flegg, so he is either 19 or 20-years-old. The young bloke grabbed a NSW Cup halves opportunity over the past month and he was provided a simple role that eased him into consistent reserve grade footy.
While Hanson played four games in NSW Cup, the first was in round two and then he stacked up three in a row over the last three weeks. NZW had a win, draw and win in those last three games with Hanson scoring a try in the last two games, also offering two or more tackle busts in three of these four games. Hanson started with 13 tackles made and three missed in round two, which improved to 21/3 and 20/2 before 12 tackles made and one missed in his 65mins vs Knights.
It's clear that Hanson was tasked with running the footy, organising his right edge and making his tackles against fringe NRL players. After playing in the halves for NZ-A last year and settling as a leader in NSW Cup, Taine Tuaupiki has dominated the play-making in NSW Cup which not only highlights how Hanson is being brewed but also points to Tuaupiki gathering more reps as a key figure for the NSW Cup Warriors.
Last season Tuaupiki averaged 8.37 kicking metres per game and this season he is averaging 208.46 kicking metres per game. Tuaupiki has filled the kicking boots of Ronald Volkman and as the NSW Cup team has skewed far younger than last year, Tuaupiki has emerged as the most important Warrior in reserve grade. Tuaupiki is kicking goal consistently (two last season and 13 this season), he has gone from one forced droppie last season to four already this season and he already has roughly half as many touches as he had all last season (410 vs 203).
Tuaupiki was a lively fullback last season and now he is a play-maker. This has seen his running mahi decrease from 170m/game to 143m/game but Tuaupiki has gone from 0.26 linebreaks per game last season to 0.8 per game this season. Tuaupiki has maintained his try assisting across both seasons with different roles (0.64 vs 0.6).
This get funkier as Tuaupiki lost his first two games this season which he had 27 kicking metres in round five then no kicking metres in round six. With Tuaupiki taking over this role and Hanson stacking up his game time, NZW had two wins in a draw while Tuaupiki rolled out 200+ kicking metres in each of these games. NZW have been playing their best footy in NSW Cup with Tuaupiki's expanded role and with Hanson in the team; two examples of development alongside each other.
Kali is now 19-years-old averaging 116m/game, tackling at 94.6% efficiency with two try assists and two linebreaks in four games. Kali is averaging 5.25 tackle busts per game.
Tanner Stowers-Smith in NSW Cup...
2023: 87.41% tackling | 75m/game
2024: 91.07% tackling | 100m/game
Eddie Ieremia in NSW Cup....
2023: 93.33% tackling | 50m/game
2024: 93.55% tackling | 82m/game
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