Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Welcome To The Mt Smart Storm
New Zealand Warriors return to Mt Smart on Saturday where they host Melbourne Storm and any game against the Storm is a tricky encounter for Warriors. This is amplified by Storm being at the top of the NRL ladder and yet one look at their team named for this game suggests they are beatable, as well as a few holes in their top of the league status.
Storm have had two byes already this season which boosts them up the ladder. There is also an interesting split in where they have played their games this season as they have had eight home games and four away games. NZW on the other hand have played six games at home and six away. This is bolstered by Storm having a 2-2 record in their away games and NZW have a 4-2 record this season for home games.
The NZW stat profile ahead of round 15 lays out how NZW are ranked in various stats per game. While it's funky to ponder these stat rankings and how this profile suggests that NZW are a good team, they also compare nicely to a few Storm stats. NZW have the third best completion rate in the NRL and Storm are ranked 14th for example.
NZW are fifth for post contact metres per game and Storm are 14th in that category as well. NZW are still chillin' with Panthers as the only teams averaging 200+ kick return metres per game and Storm are 16th, which gets crazier considering that NZW average 227.9 kick return metres and Storm average 127.5. We all love to moan about referees, but NZW are 14th for penalties conceded per game and Storm are fourth.
All of the above offers a few cones of optimism to smoke ahead of this game and the Lets Gone Warriors folks will be eager to see NZW rectify what happened in Melbourne earlier this year, as well as grabbing their fourth win in a row. One area to watch out for with Storm is that they are second for dummy half runs per game and that stems from Harry Grant at hooker.
Grant can burst out of dummy half in direct, north-south fashion to pounce on sloppy markers, but he is most dangerous when he scampers sideways. Grant has all the tools to cause chaos around the ruck and NZW will need to quickly set up two markers, with tight defence around the ruck to slow down Grant's impact.
The battle between Grant and Wayde Egan will provide insight into how dummy halves operate. Grant has averaged over 60m/game in five consecutive seasons and Egan hasn't averaged 60m/game in his career, peaking at 51m/game last season. Egan runs enough though and any keen NZW fan gets giddy at he sight of Egan's no-look-10m-spirals in both directions.
Last week against the Cowboys he averaged just over 10m/run on seven dummy half scoots. In the four consecutive losses prior to a win over Panthers in which Egan left the game early, he had less than 32m. Egan ran for 74m and 91m in wins over Knights and Rabbitohs earlier this season; when Egan has 70+ running metres this season, NZW win.
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad continues to sizzle at fullback. His mahi in returning kicks and taking at least two runs in each set is crucial in getting NZW down field. Nicoll-Klokstad is averaging 232m/game and this puts the City Newton legend at second for average run metres in the NRL. Panthers and NZW are the only teams averaging 200+ kick return metres per game, while Dylan Edwards and Nicoll-Klokstad are the only blokes averaging 230+ running metres per game.
Nicoll-Klokstad is also ranked seventh for post contact metres per game, highlighting his sneaky power and why he is so important when taking runs around halfway. While he has only scored four tries this season, Nicoll-Klokstad has already registered seven linebreaks which is almost as many as his career-high eight linebreaks last year and through his 2019 Grand Final run with Raiders.
The best thing about wins over Panthers and Dolphins is that a wide variety of NZW players were used with similar performances as the top-17 lads. Check out how Nicoll-Klokstad's mahi is better than Taine Tuaupiki and Watene-Zelezniak, yet they are generally the same...
Taine Tuaupiki: 23 runs - 198m @ 8.6m/run, 1 try, 2 linebreaks, 11 passes
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak: 22 runs - 205m @ 9.3m/run, 1 try, 4 passes, 2 offloads
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad: 22 runs @ 256m @ 11.6m/run, 2 tries, 11 passes, 1 offload
Three different fullbacks churned out similar mahi. Egan only played a few minutes vs Panthers and then a hefty stint vs Cowboys, with Freddy Lussick and Paul Roache playing big minutes in their appearances during this phase. A few different halves were used, meaning that NZW rolled through various spine combos to win games. The sneaky pocket of this theme is how 11 different forwards have been used in three wins. Here are the total minutes played by NZW forwards in the past three games...
Jackson Ford: 210
Mitchell Barnett: 207
Dylan Walker: 187
Jazz Tevaga: 116
Addin Fonua-Blake: 104
Marata Niukore: 96
Jacob Laban: 82
Bunty Afoa: 72
Kurt Capewell: 55
Tohu Harris: 49
Tom Ale: 36
Ford is again named at prop where his effort helps tie down the middle and his 78 post contact metres in 68 minutes vs Cowboys is a season high for Ford. This highlights how Ford is able to generate enough oomph to roll through the middle and while it seemed like Marata Niukore would shift to the middle when NZW signed Kurt Capewell, it's Ford who has made the move.
Tohu Harris is an interesting lad to track against his former team, after coming off the bench for 49mins vs Cowboys. Harris is back starting in the middle, but less minutes last week saw Harris provide more vitality in his runs to the point where he even ran it straight from a few kick offs. Harris had 144m and 56 post contact metres vs Cowboys, both of which are aligned with his mahi in more minutes throughout the season.
Who is the most important Warrior? Well, NZW have won six of the eight games that Jazz Tevaga plays.
Te Maire Martin had less than 50 receipts in his six games prior to this winning run, with NZW losing four of those games. In three wins Martin had 75, 60 and 66 receipts. There should be a sweet spot of 50 receipts for Martin against Storm and his best kicks are low-punches or grubbers so watch out for Martin's involvements.
Regardless of whether Martin stays on his left edge or swings to both sides of ruck, his running game will be important. Aside from his 37m vs Roosters, Martin has had 60+ metres in every other game this season which flows across two different roles. Martin had two linebreaks in his first four games and two in the next five games, plus 12 tackle breaks in his first four games and nine in the last five games.
Martin added spice to the NZW attack throughout the season, even when folks were moaning about his performances. His nimble footwork and burst of speed has been present all season, which should be more evident in the numero ono jersey this week.
NZW won their bye vs Caspar in NSW Cup last week and the Jersey Flegg lads had a lovely win in Fiji. On Saturday both teams are playing in Sydney vs their Tigers equivalents and this is a funky match up considering how Aussie folks love to chat about Tigers juniors. The fabulous Tigers culture and pipeline has Western Suburbs Magpies as the worst team in NSW Cup; Tigers are last in NRL and NSW Cup.
Tigers are fourth in Jersey Flegg though so shout out to them. NZW are 11th in the Under 21 Flegg competition but all five of their wins have come in the most recent stanza so this will be a funky challenge for the Flegg Warriors. As always we don't know exactly how these teams will line up but Tallan Egan is named at fullback again for the Flegg team, joining another young Aussie Jesse Soric who has settled into a halves role; Egan and Soric are the latest U19 lads to move up to Flegg.
Jacob Auloa is also named in Flegg, dipping down after lots of NSW Cup mahi - even though he started in U19 SG Ball. Caleb Laiman has taken Auloa's spot in NSW Cup on the bench and while this may change, Laiman offers a bit more utility value for the trip to Australia as he has been playing in the halves for NSW Cup in recent weeks.
Demitric Sifakula is named at prop with Zyon Maiu'u and Tanner Stowers-Smith not named this week. Even without the two young lads who have been consistent starters at prop, NZW still have a plethora of young forwards named this week who all have tasty potential; Sifakula, Jacob Laban, Leka Halasima, Harry Durbin and Eddie Ieremia.
However, Ieremia is named at centre. The two most important things about the NZW pipeline right now are Ieremia and Motu Pasikala grabbing consistent NSW Cup mahi. Ieremia is too good for Jersey Flegg so he's only playing NSW Cup and his potential is evident in him covering prop, edge forward and centre this season with 80mins at centre in a win over Roosters prior to the bye.
Pasikala has made a swift transition from U19s to NSW Cup this season - his first year at Mt Smart. NZW have won three of the four NSW Cup games with Pasikala in the team and he is kicking goals at 81.8% as an U19 lad. Ieremia is the best NZW junior folks don't know about and Pasikala isn't far behind considering his rise through the pipeline this season.
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