Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Back To The Gold Coast Whare
New Zealand Warriors sit in their usual spot of mediocrity on the NRL ladder, just outside the finals spots and battling to drag themselves up the ladder. This weekend they play against Gold Coast Titans and while a whiff of desperation should propel NZW to victory over a Titans team stuck at the bottom of the ladder, Titans present a tricky challenge for this Warriors crew.
NZW had a hearty win over Titans on the Gold Coast last year in what appeared to be a Shaun Johnson flu game. That sets the scene for this encounter as no fixture in Australia brings in more Warriors fans than the Gold Coast games and the sweet sounds of vocal Warriors fandom swept over the Titans crowd to help NZW seal that win. However, Titans went to Mt Smart earlier this year and beat up NZW on Anzac Day.
One key weakness for NZW at the moment is their lack of speed. No NZW player is fast for their position in the NRL context and Titans are dripping with some of the fastest blokes in the NRL. Nothing has changed in that regard for this week's game as coach Andrew Webster has named Edward Kosi on the wing to replace Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and this points to a similar style as Kosi's best attribute is metre-eating carries.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is back at centre and while he offers the best footwork ever seen in either rugby code, he isn't a fast centre. Tuivasa-Sheck does spice up the NZW backline though as he can benefit from early ball with a bit of space which balances out the attacking shapes, many of which aren't working as well as they were last season.
Having spent most of his game time at centre this season, Tuivasa-Sheck is averaging 182m/game and this is aligned with his general mahi at fullback for NZW. Tuivasa-Sheck averaged less than 182m/game in his first three seasons at NZW and then went above 200m/game in three consecutive seasons before his departure, so his current mahi at centre is nicely poised in all of that.
More importantly, Tuivasa-Sheck is tackling at 82.5% efficiency this year which is his first season over 78%. Tuivasa-Sheck tackled below 77% in six seasons at NZW prior to his return and his shift to centre has seen him adjust nicely to the increased tackling workload. Tuivasa-Sheck played left centre to start the season and Adam Pompey has been in that spot recently, so someone needs to slide over to the right against Titans.
Along with one of those two moving to right centre, Dylan Walker is named at edge forward and Jacob Laban is on the bench. Marata Niukore primarily plays right edge so Walker could play left edge with Laban continuing his development by getting reps on both sides of the field. Keep an eye on Jackson Ford though as he was playing left edge before his shift to middle forward and he could swap with Walker, keeping Walker as a middle forward.
NZW need to win the battle through the middle before even contemplating how the halves combo is operating. Tuivasa-Sheck's return is a major boost in carting the footy up but the loss to Storm saw a smaller NZW forward pack struggle to contain their opposition aside from sporadic big hits, especially when the rain started to flow.
Each game is important right now and NZW need wins. Given how previous games vs Titans have played out and how their playing, plus a whiff of desperation, this is a crucial encounter for the NZW forward pack. It involves their running mahi but NZW can roll down the field thanks to their backline and most of focus will be on how the NZW control the ruck vs Titans, which will have a direct impact on how effective the Titans' speed will be.
Bunty Afoa isn't getting game time at the moment which is a bit weird considering that he's winning 56% of his games played this season. NZW have a losing record this season but Afoa has a winning record and he is being rewarded with less game time. Afoa played 21 games last year (62% winning) and averaged 29.6 minutes per game, which has dipped to nine games this year and 25.6mins/game.
Afoa responded to being dropped with 53mins, 15 runs - 147m @ 9.8m/run, 21 tackles @ 95.4% in NSW Cup last week. Now he's behind Tom Ale in the depth chart and it seems like coach Webster prefers nimble feet rather than Afoa's style. This provides an insight into the NZW style and how it can stumble in wet conditions as Afoa's traditional prop mahi would have been useful in the rain vs Storm.
Things get funky when comparing Aofa's 56% winning percentage to Shaun Johnson's 27% winning percentage this season. Johnson has played in all seven of the NZW losses this season and he has lost five consecutive NRL games, none of which is aligned with the perception of Johnson's importance for NZW.
Keep tabs on how the NZW play-makers operate vs Titans. In the big win over Cowboys, Te Maire Martin swung to both sides of the ruck to steer NZW attack with Chanel Harris-Tavita on the left and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad on the right. This flipped to Nicoll-Klokstad on the left and Johnson staying on the right against Storm, while Martin maintained his 'halfback' role.
Martin had 66 receipts vs Cowboys and then 57 receipts vs Storm. That's a decrease but Martin didn't have more than 48 receipts in his six games prior to the win over Panthers, plus Johnson had a season-low 41 receipts for Storm. Johnson has losses as a dominant half and losses with fewer receipts (also had 49 receipts in the round two loss vs Storm), so everything's a bit niggly in the halves this season.
NZW have NSW Cup and Jersey Flegg games vs Dragons in Auckland on Saturday. Recent NSW Cup updates have highlighted Motu Pasikala and Eddie Ieremia as low key NZW juniors who folks need to know about. Caleb Laiman has also emerged as a sneaky NZW junior and he has played four games of NSW Cup after moving up from Jersey Flegg, winning three of his four games.
Laiman played three games in the halves and came off the bench last round. Now the Marist junior Laiman is named in the halves with Luke Hanson which continues their U21 combo. Laiman has 50+ kicking metres in each of his three games as a half and he has stepped up to take on more kicking when required with 226 kicking metres vs Roosters.
Interestingly, having gone deep into the development of Taine Tuaupiki earlier in the season, he had no kicking metres in his return to NSW Cup last week after putting up 200+ kicking metres in three consecutive games prior. As expected, this has overlapped with Hanson's development which provides a clear insight into how NZW are genuinely developing players in their system.
Luke Hanson's kicking mahi...
Round 2: 90km
Round 7: 42km
Round 8: 0km
Round 9: 14km
Round 11: 170km
Round 12: 175km
Round 13: 127km
Round 15: 276km
From the same vibration that highlighted Pasikala and Ieremia, folks need to tap in with Rodney Tuipulotu-Vea. Like all these other NSW Cup youngsters, Tuipulotu-Vea played his second SG Ball campaign earlier this year and moved up to Jersey Flegg before moving into NSW Cup. The Mangere East and Manurewa junior has played two games of NSW Cup with two wins, coming off the bench for 25 and 21mins.
Tuipulotu-Vea is benefitting from the absences of Zyon Maiu'u and Tanner Stowers-Smith. The depth in the NZW system is getting rather bonkers as notable juniors such as Ali Leiataua and Sio Kali aren't playing right now, but Moala Graham-Taufa has flashed his NRL upside and Pasikala has snapped up his opportunity. Demitric Sifakula has taken over starting prop mahi from Maiu'u and Stowers-Smith, while Ieremiea is casually playing middle, edge and centre in NSW Cup.
Both halves are U21s in NSW Cup. Need a hooker? Freddy Lussick, Makaia Tafua, Jacob Auloa are all in the NSW Cup mix. The list goes on with Leka Halasima, Harry Durbin, Kayliss Fatialofa etc. If you haven't cared about the NZW junior pipeline before, now is the time to tap in because this is the craziest cluster of NZW depth that the Aotearoa Warriors Diary has covered.
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