Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Taking Stock of a Frantic 2024 New Zealand Warriors Season
Ever since a clunky start to the 2024 NRL season at Mt Smart where New Zealand Warriors lost to Sharks, they have been battling to find a groove and repeat their 2023 mahi. NZW currently sit 14th on the ladder with a couple of byes stashed away and this means NZW are in the zone of mediocrity that they know so well, although reasons for optimism and faith provide a glimmer of hope.
Throughout the history of NZW, they usually finish the NRL season in a pocket just outside the finals between eighth and 14th. Since the NRL settled at 16 teams in 2007, NZW have finished worse than 14th just once (15th in 2022) and higher than eighth in four seasons (fourth in 2007, fifth in 2010, sixth in 2011, fourth in 2023). As the NRL grew to 17 teams last year, the heights of last season are impressive while their stagnant 2024 campaign is on par with the ho-hum seasons fans know so well.
Somehow, two of the worst NZW seasons since 2007 have come either side of the epic 2023 season. All of which reinforces the fact that NZW currently reside in their usual zone on the NRL ladder and that suggests that coach Andrew Webster isn't all that different to any other NZW coach from previous eras.
Leading to a feeling of melancholy has been an emotionally draining season and this is evident in the loss to Bulldogs last weekend. NZW had a similar loss to Storm earlier in the season and both losses saw NZW show up with admirable effort, only for the souls of fans and NZW folks to be yanked out in the final moments. Such losses hit fans like a pesky hangover and they take a few days to move on from.
Those losses are just the tip of the iceberg though. To add to the emotional drain, NZW have struggled to match the festive atmosphere of Mt Smart with that round tahi loss to Sharks, an Anzac Day loss to Titans, the draw with Sea Eagles and another loss to Storm. Add in a loss to Dragons in Sydney and the 666 loss to Titans, for lows that humbled the organisation and served as a reminder of how niggly an NRL season can be for fans.
The extremes of those performances were balanced by invigorating wins. Chirstchurch went crazy for the NZW trip south to defeat Raiders and the win over Rabbitohs saw NZW roll out the most clinical performance of the season. Wins over Panthers and Dolphins are the high watermarks though, filling every NZW fan with pride and glee, followed by a comprehensive display against Cowboys in Townsville.
Adding to the turmoil and emotional swings of this season, is how wins over Panthers and Dolphins featured the second tier of NZW depth. The best wins this season didn't feature the best players for NZW while many of the worst losses involved the best players for NZW. This generates a confusing mix of perspectives as the inconsistent performances and results are blended in with all sorts of thoughts about what the best NZW team is.
For every low, there is a wrinkle of mana that boosts the outlook for NZW. This was on display against Bulldogs as every moment of losing mahi with the footy was balanced by an impressive defensive effort. The attitude and intensity that resonates with fans has vanished for patches of the season, but NZW have rallied at different stages to show that the flickering flame of NZW mana is still burning.
All of which is extremely challenging for coach Webster in his second year as a head coach in the NRL. The clinical attack of last season hasn't been present this season and this involves various injuries as well as key lads not playing to the best of their abilities. Coach Webster can't roll out the same attacking structure if the availability and form of his halves is changing every couple of week; NZW started with Shaun Johnson/Luke Metcalf in the halves and now it's Te Maire Martin/Chanel Harris-Tavita.
Coach Webster has adapted his footy plan to the players available throughout this season. This is one of a few pockets of encouragement as coach Webster hasn't stayed stuck in one method and he has made numerous changes to the style such as early shifts in recent weeks, a scrum play vs Bulldogs, let alone his simplified style for the the wins over Panthers and Dolphins.
Most notably though, coach Webster has had to manage blokes as well as the footy stuff. Shaun Johnson and Tohu Harris aren't playing their best footy, there was that Addin Fonua-Blake situation after the Panthers win, plus coach Webster has steadily tinkered with roles throughout the season; Jackson Ford is now a middle forward for example.
For all of that, coach Webster has found a way to get NZW back on track with their attitude, effort and intensity. Each bad game was soon followed by a performance full of mana in the same way that a lack of winning instincts and class was balanced out by a hearty defensive play vs Bulldogs. The NZW mana that fans connect with hasn't been on display all season, but it's been there just enough to keep everyone engaged.
At different stages of this season it has appeared like coach Webster would only ride with senior players, the same players who did not feature in the best wins. It seemed like coach Webster was stuck in his ways but like the undercover changes to NZW footy throughout the season, coach Webster has embraced the plethora of young talent emerging from the development pipeline.
Leka Halasima made his debut vs Bulldogs with coach Webster selecting him ahead of Bunty Afoa, Jacob Laban and Demitric Sifakula who all played NSW Cup last weekend. The talent of NZW youngsters led directly to wins over Panthers and Dolphins. It's unrealistic to expect coach Webster to ditch the senior players and go all in on youngsters, so this is a tricky spot for a fresh NRL coach to be in. Given that coach Webster has adapted throughout this season and found ways to get extra effort from the players under adversity, he deserves a bit of faith in how he is developing the young talent.
Five points sits between NZW in 14th (17 points) and Bulldogs in fifth (22 points) ahead of round 19. Of the nine teams in that zone up to Bulldogs, only Cowboys have had one bye like NZW. All the mathematics to figure out the last few finals spots doesn't include goofy NRL results, so the combination of a couple byes and NRL goofiness means NZW are still in the mix for finals.
Unfortunately, that probably won't happen. NZW haven't shown the consistent effort and intensity of a finals team, while individuals aren't playing well enough to suggest that they can ride a wave of wins into finals footy. One thing that could help this push for finals is desperation, not only for winning games but desperation to be selected in the team each week this year, let alone next season.
Senior players need to step up to keep the youngsters in NSW Cup, while the youngsters need to command selection ahead of the veterans. Halasima for example earned his NRL debut through consistent domination of NSW Cup footy and all of the youngsters have flashed their talent on debut. Leiataua was awesome in Canberra, Sifakula's physicality was notable in his debut and first few games, Laban was excellent on debut vs Rabbitohs, Maiu'u changed the vibe at Mt Smart vs Titans and Graham-Taufa looked comfy at centre in his outing vs Dolphins.
Desperation for game time with NZW should drive better performances to finish this season, but that may not be good enough to crack finals footy. NZW have a decent schedule coming up as well and this weekend's bye comes at a lovely time to reset after a hectic phase of NRL footy. There is a lack of clarity around NZW at the moment and this contributes to how frantic this season feels, so hopefully the final stanza of this season provides clarity about who the best players are and how this team plays their footy.
Below the NRL team there is clarity because the pipeline is flush with incredible young talent. Here is a squad of NZW youngsters to ponder over the bye round...
Fullback: Ali Leiataua
Wingers: Sio Kali, Motu Pasikala
Centres: Moala Graham-Taufa, Sialetili Faeamani
Halves: Luke Hanson, Caleb Laiman
Middles: Demitric Sifakula, Zyon Maiu'u, Tanner Stowers-Smith
Edges: Jacob Laban, Leka Halasima
Hooker: Makaia Tafua
Bench: Jacob Auloa, Eddie Ieremia, Harry Durbin, Kayliss Fatialofa
18th/19th: Rodney Tuipulotu-Vea, Raphael Sio
Backline depth: Tallan Egan, Ezekiel Tavita
Halves/hooker depth: Cassius Cowley, Jesse Soric, Jeriko Filipi-Talisau, Maui Winitana-Patelesio
Forward depth: Toby Crosby, Etuate Fukofuka, Augustino Filipo, Alvin Chong Nee, Ieti Samuelu, Presley Seumanu, Paea Sikuvea
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