Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Competing For The NRL Finals Mix vs Raiders
New Zealand Warriors have a crucial away trip to face Canberra Raiders on Friday night to help shuffle through teams just outside finals footy. Raiders are one point and one spot ahead of NZW on the ladder, plus Raiders have already had their three byes and NZW still have a bye remaining.
Adding to the intrigue is that NZW have won all three games vs Raiders under coach Andrew Webster, including the trip to Canberra last year. Raiders are 4-4 at home this season so the confidence gained from winning in Canberra and the Raiders home record means there is nothing to fear about this fixture. The only issue for NZW is their 2-6 record for away games and this away form is why NZW currently sit outside the finals mix.
News came through this week that Tohu Harris is out for the rest of the season. On the surface this news appears pesky but like other veterans for NZW, Harris was a consistent presence in losing footy for NZW this season. NZW are well equipped to deal with Harris' absence and their depth is on display with Leka Halasima keeping his spot on the bench, which means that the team named to play Raiders does not have Harris, Bunty Afoa or Tom Ale in the top-17.
Harris' mana is undeniable and there is one nugget that sums up the Hawke's Bay matua: Harris has averaged 100+ metres per game and tackled over 91 percent efficiency in all 13 seasons of his NRL career.
The injection of Halasima is timely for NZW as he is a genuine impact player. Halasima has commanded a bench spot ahead of Ale, Afoa, Jacob Laban and Zyon Maiu'u thanks to his power, mobility and versatility. In his debut, Halasima rolled through the middle of the field when he came off the bench and he is likely to get 15-20 minutes through the middle again in Canberra.
Halasima only found himself out on an edge due to the crazy injury toll of that loss to Bulldogs. This gives NZW a few players who can cover the edges on their bench with Jackson Ford offering his steady mahi and Mitchell Barnett also wiggles between middle and edge in most games for NZW. Most importantly, Halasima provides power for NZW and he is ideally suited to add oomph to the NZW forward pack in short stints.
Ali Leiataua also adds powerful mahi at centre and with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck sliding out to the wing, this gives NZW one of their most powerful teams of the season. Tuivasa-Sheck will add to the NZW kick return mahi and while Taine Tuaupiki isn't as big or powerful as these lads, Tuaupiki gathers his metres in different ways. The speed and zip of Tuaupiki is complimented by the rest of the outside backs, so NZW should have no issues starting their sets strongly.
NZW (3,368m) are second for kick return metres, joining Panthers (3,681m) as the only teams over 3,200 kick return metres in the NRL. Meanwhile, Raiders are 12th on 2,513 kick return metres and the difference in kick return mahi is nicely aligned with kicking metres. NZW are sixth for kick metres on 10,135m and Raiders are 14th on 9,270 which offers NZW the ability to control the flow of this game.
For context, NZW battled hard against Bulldogs after losing their starting wingers and fullback. Bulldogs enter this round in first for kick metres and they are the only team over 11,000 kick metres. That flips in favour of NZW for this game and a strength of NZW is how they win the early-set tackles with and without the footy, so keep tabs on where NZW start their attacking sets as well as how they pin Raiders deep in their territory.
Tuaupiki's last NRL game was the win over Panthers and his last NSW Cup game was a win over Raiders, which means he has missed the last two NSW Cup games. In his last two NSW Cup games, Tuaupiki had 11 and 10 tackle breaks as an example of how lively he is running the footy. Tuaupiki was also fabulous in that win vs Panthers...
NRL vs Panthers
1 try, 23 runs - 198m @ 8.6m/run, 2 linebreaks, 3 tackle breaks, 50% tackling
NSW Cup vs Raiders
2 tries, 16 runs - 188m @ 11.7m/run, 1 linebreak, 10 tackle breaks, 1 try assist, 75% tackling
Taine Tuaupiki in NSW Cup...
2023: 14 games, 6 tries, 9 try assists, 5 linebreaks, 170m/game 8.3 kick metres/game, 73% tackling
2024: 8 games, 4 tries, 4 try assists, 6 linebreaks, 170m/game, 135.8 kick metres/game, 76.7% tackling
That sharp increase in kicking metres could be a boost for NZW, but the kicking mahi will probably sit with Te Maire Martin and Chanel Harris-Tavita. While Martin's short kicking game is crisp, he doesn't have the long kicking game or the height of kicks that Harris-Tavita has. Both should be better for the experience of the Bulldogs outing and the growth of Harris-Tavita's left-footed kicking game could be on display against Raiders.
Chanel Harris-Tavita: 132.3 kicking metres per game - 537m vs Bulldogs
Te Maire Martin: 166.4 kicking metres per game- 301m vs Bulldogs
Aside from a lack of kicking accuracy against Bulldogs, NZW were hindered by the combination of a hefty long kicking game from Matt Burton and their back three leaving the game which snatched away a foundation element of NZW footy. Harris-Tavita is best equipped for the long/high kicks around halfway but NZW should be able to get further down field against Raiders to put Martin in better positions for his kicking mahi.
NZW are now fourth in NSW Cup after a crazy win over Eels last week and they will bag two more points with a bye this weekend. Three of the five outside backs in the win vs Eels were Under 19 lads who started this year in SG Ball with Motu Pasikala and Sio Kali joined by Nganatatafu Vake.
Some of these lads may pop up in the Jersey Flegg team who had a loss vs Eels last week and will return to Fiji for their second game vs Kaiviti. Caleb Laiman, Tanner Stowers-Smith and Harry Durbin are all named in the U21 squad as lads who have played lots of NSW Cup this season. There are also a few holes in the team list that need to be filled so it will be interesting to see how this team looks for Saturday's game.
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