Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Summoning Mt Smart Mana vs Eels
New Zealand Warriors need another NRL win on Friday night against Parramatta Eels and playing in front of a hearty Mt Smart gives them the best chance to snare that win. All sorts of things were covered on the morning after the win over Tigers, so check that out if you haven't already.
NZW had a win in the NRL vs Tigers but they lost the NSW Cup game to Western Magpies, which sets up an intriguing battle against Eels in NRL, NSW Cup and Jersey Flegg. All three games will be played in Auckland with the NSW Cup lads starting the Friday festivities and the Under 21 Flegg team will play at Albany on Saturday. Eels are ninth (of 13) in NSW Cup and NZW dropped to fifth with their loss, while Eels are ninth in Flegg and Warriors are 13th (of 14).
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Shaun Johnson and Tom Ale return to the team to play Tigers. The return of Nicoll-Klokstad at fullback is partnered with coach Andrew Webster showing faith in Moala Graham-Taufa and Ali Leiataua at centre, as Roger Tuivasa-Sheck continues to flex his incredible versatility to play wing.
Coach Webster offers more faith to Chanel Harris-Tavita who stays in the halves and is now joined by Johnson. Ale is selected on the bench with Jackson Ford out injured and he joins a sneaky fast group of bench forwards, also featuring the nimble spinny moves of Jazz Tevaga and Leka Halasima's 'good enough for centre' mobility. The returns of Nicoll-Klokstad and Johnson are aligned with NZW strengths but this new bench forward rotation is an undercover pocket to watch out for.
Somehow, NZW may have a faster team than Eels. This is especially enticing in the forward pack where Eels appear slow and a few teams have ripped through their ruck defence this season. That observation is combined with Reagan Campbell-Gillard sitting ninth for missed tackles in the NRL as the only prop in the top-30 for missed tackles.
That sounds like Mt Smart boil up recipe for Wayde Egan's craft, Addin Fonua-Blake's elite oomph and a slightly faster bench forward crew than usual. Expect to see Ale's footwork attacking the ruck area and if Halasima is deployed through the middle, his athleticism will shine around the ruck.
All of which is crucial because NZW need to stop the slide. They aren't sliding down the ladder right now, nor are they sliding backwards in any big picture vistas but NZW need to stop sliding defences. That starts in the middle with NZW drawing defenders in towards the ruck and the injection of Johnson's slow-mo craft could hold defenders up, engaging defenders before they can slide sideways.
This is most evident on the right edge. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has scored 10 tries in 17 games this season after 24 tries in 20 games last year. NZW have been forced into all sorts of attacking combinations with Johnson missing games and Te Maire Martin gathering halfback experience, as well as three different fullbacks playing multiple games this season.
NZW deploy their fullback on the right edge in attacking shapes and they have struggled to build cohesion or chemistry on this side of the field, which probably stems from the amount of players forced to plug holes. Even the right centre spot has Rocco Berry, Adam Pompey and Graham-Taufa getting opportunities. None of this is useful in generating crisp attacking motion as Tuivasa-Sheck found out against Tigers...
Tigers simply slid across field and NZW kept hitting dead-end roads. This is amplified by NZW being first for line engaged and first for decoy runs in the NRL. Some of those line engagements and decoys take place in the middle or the left edge, but the basic takeaway here is that defences are reading NZW plays nicely and they slide sideways without fear of decoys getting the footy.
NZW can stop the slide by getting busy around the ruck, attacking inside shoulders and then relying on Johnson to engage defenders before he picks the right pass. NZW can also stop the slide by rolling down the field, which is a core foundation of NZW footy this season despite their struggles; NZW are first for run metres and post contact metres, second for kick return metres.
This starts with the kick returns and NZW have a fabulous back three to churn out those metres, as well as the next carries in a set. Keep in mind that NZW have maintained their top-two kick return metre-eating mahi regardless of who is playing fullback or wing throughout the season, which should hit a peak with Nicoll-Klokstad, Tuivasa-Sheck and Watene-Zelezniak vs Eels.
Eels have the lowest kick metres in the NRL this year and they are the only team with less than 9,000 kick metres. NZW should be able to start every set with momentum before the big boppers get a run and by then, Eels could be on the back foot which will limit any chance to slide.
The kicking mahi is always fascinating, mainly because a few different halves combinations have been used and they all have different skills. Johnson only has three wins this season and his 25 percent win rate is only slightly better than his worst season of 24 percent winning in 2022. Aside from the draw vs Sea Eagles where 90 minutes was played and stats were inflated, NZW won three of the four games in which Johnson had 600+ kicking metres.
Johnson has played in eight losses this season, so in seven of those eight losses he had less than 600 kicking metres. There is no other clear theme in Johnson's winning mahi vs losing mahi and while there is a connection between lots of Johnson kicking and NZW wins, NZW also lost games in which Johnson had more than usual touches.
Somehow NZW and Johnson need to find a balance in organising how the team operates. There is a clear order of things with Harris-Tavita offering a traditional 'five-eighth' style of play and Johnson playing a traditional halfback role, which is different to Martin skewing towards typical halfback mahi alongside Johnson. Johnson and Martin are the halfback style, Harris-Tavita and Luke Metcalf at the classic sixes.
This comes after Harris-Tavita settled into his kicking role vs Tigers. Harris-Tavita had less than 300 kicking metres in his first three games in the halves this season, then he had 300+ kicking metres in the last three games there. There is genuine value in Harris-Tavita's left-footed kicking game, especially in opening up space for Johnson so the more these two share kicking mahi, the better for NZW.
Metcalf returns in NSW Cup this round and the teams named on Tuesday provide a clear pecking order to learn from. Luke Hanson keeps his halves spot which is a sign of his standing in the depth chart and Paul Roache keeps his starting spot, moving to hooker which bumps Makaia Tafua to the bench. With more top-tier NSW Cup lads available, NZW have a spine of Taine Tuaupiki, Metcalf, Hanson, Roache and Tafua's coming off the bench.
NZW also have a forward pack full of local talent. Eddie Ieremia moves from centre to starting prop alongside middles Bunty Afoa and Kalani Going. Jacob Laban and Demitric Sifakula are edge forwards. Tanner Stowers-Smith, Toni Tupouniua and Zyon Maiu'u are on the bench.
Sio Kali is playing all three outside back positions across NSW Cup and Flegg, named again at fullback for the Flegg team. Caleb Laiman slides down to a starting halves role in Flegg where he partners Maui Winitana-Patelesio, while Jacob Auloa and Jeriko Filipi-Talisau are the dummy halves.
Just like the NSW Cup team, the U21s are flush with exciting forwards. Rodney Tuipulotu-Vea, Harry Durbin, Kayliss Fatialofa and Toby Crosby are all named vs Eels having played NSW Cup this year. The others in Augusitino Filipo, Presley Seumanu-Tigafua, Paea Sikuvea and Ben Peni are all powerful young forwards who showcase the depth of talent at Mt Smart.
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