Balancing The Cold Reality Of The New Zealand Warriors 2024 NRL Season With Seeds Of Optimism
The 2024 NRL season has been a journey through the sludge of Aotearoa's mangroves for New Zealand Warriors and with Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs heading over the Tasman to play Jersey Flegg, NSW Cup and NRL games against the Warriors, it could get even more niggly. Bulldogs blasted their way ahead of NZW (and many other NRL teams) this season as coach Cameron Ciraldo stayed true to his style of play and team identity to build a team that is preparing for a deep run into finals footy.
Bulldogs (fifth) are also one spot behind NZW (fourth) in NSW Cup with both teams on 13 wins, while the Under 21 Bulldogs team are cruising near the top of the Jersey Flegg ladder in second spot. The last time these two NRL organisations lined up against each other in these three grades, Bulldogs won all three games with a combined score of 89-34 in favour of the Doggies.
There is a decent chance that NZW fall to an 0-6 record against Bulldogs in this phase across the three grades. NZW could rally for an emotional NRL fixture and maybe the U21s find some juice as they try to climb out of 12th (14 teams) spot, yet the best NZW team right now is the NSW Cup group. The NSW Cup Warriors have a fabulous 7-3 record for home games and are currently a top-four team, playing with a consistent rotation of U21 youngsters.
Slide back to last weekend's footy and there is an alarming splash of context with NZW losing all three games vs Manly Sea Eagles. Neither Sea Eagles or Bulldogs played finals footy last season in the NRL, now they are both better than NZW in the NRL and both organisations have 0-3 sweeps over NZW in recent months.
Like Bulldogs, Sea Eagles are better than NZW in NRL and Jersey Flegg. Sea Eagles are currently ninth in NSW Cup though and NZW slipped up against a team who are outside of the finals mix, even though the NSW Cup Warriors have churned out winning mahi in Australia under the two Andys (Webster and McFadden).
Last season the NSW Cup Warriors finished the regular season with a 7-4 record in Australia and they are currently 6-5 this season. This is a notable seed of optimism for NZW folk as the NSW Cup Warriors finished second last season and were a win away from the Grand Final. NZW woes in the NRL haven't been as evident in the NSW Cup team this season as they are fourth on 13 wins and the three teams ahead of them all have 14 wins.
The cold reality of NZW in the NRL this year is balanced by a NSW Cup team who are chasing a top-four spot for the second season in a row. Last year's NSW Cup team had a bunch of youngsters who climbed up from Under 19 SG Ball as there was no U21 team, as well as a solid group of veterans who offered experience and guidance. This year, the NSW Cup team has consistently had half of the 17 players as U21s and they are still a good reserve grade team.
NZW added U17 and U21 teams to their menu this year, with significant investment in developing young talent from within. Ownership is spending money on development and the two Andys are using their previous NZW experience to implement a better development pipeline than ever before. As the 2024 season moves into the final stanza, the bigger picture of NZW building a comprehensive development system may not help the NRL team crack finals footy right now, but it is the most important storyline coming out of Mt Smart.
This will get far more funky when NZW re-enter NRLW where the women's rugby league landscape has changed drastically since the pandemic snatched away various NZW teams. All of our NRLWahine coverage breaks down the growth of women's rugby league in Aotearoa, although Sea Eagles and Bulldogs provide enticing examples without being in NRLW.
Next year NZW and Bulldogs will be part of NRLW expansion. Bulldogs already have wahine from Aotearoa throughout their pipeline and without an NRLW team, Bulldogs have played significant roles in women like Alexis Tauaneai (Wainuiomata) and Tatiana Finau (Mt Albert) entering NRLW.
Bulldogs have the likes of Sarachen Oliver (Petone), Shaquaylah Mahakitau-Monschau (St Peters Cambridge), Shaniece Monschau (Mt Albert), Shannon Muru (Mt Albert) in their NSW Women's Premiership team. Bulldogs won the Under 17s Lisa Fiaola Cup earlier this year with Asha Taumoepeau-Williams (Howick) scoring four tries, Evelyn Roberts (Mangere East) scoring twice and Waikato's Laynayah Daniel scoring as well.
Also in that Bulldogs U17s team were Seriah Palepale (Mangere East), Mary-Jane Taito (Mangere East), Paige and Trinity Tauaneai (Wainuiomata) and Josinah Filisi Tauiliili (Southern Cross Campus). That's almost half of the team who won the NSW U17s competition for Bulldogs coming straight out of Aotearoa and Bulldogs haven't even got an NRLW team yet.
Sea Eagles are not locked in for an NRLW team yet and their NSW Women's Premiership team always has a bunch of wahine from Aotearoa this season; Mollie Tagaloa (Te Atatu), Lavinia Tauhalaliku (Southern Cross), Aleksandra Tunufai (Howick), Makayla Eli (Manurewa), Tanika-Jazz Noble (Mt Albert), Alianna Tonu'u (Otara), JayJay Taylor (Kaitaia).
Just as there is an abundance of men's rugby league talent from Aotearoa, there is an abundance of women's talent as well. NZW will be able to bring wahine back to Aotearoa, develop youngsters and they will offer better opportunities to Black Ferns/Black Ferns Sevens/Super Rugby Aupiki players. Just within the Sea Eagles/Bulldogs bubble of this yarn, it is clear that the NRLW foundations have shifted since NZW were last in NRLW and while the cold reality is that every Australia team is investing in young women from Aotearoa, that is balanced by NZW tapping into an market that is booming with massive growth potential.
The coldest dose of reality is surging north from Antarctica as Shaun Johnson tries to snap a losing streak to finish off his time with NZW. Johnson has lost eight games in a row and he last won an NRL game in round five, contributing to his 21% winning rate this season. Prior to the 2022 season, Johnson had never dipped below 36% winning and then he hit 24% in 2022 before leaping up to 68% last season.
In his last season of NRL footy, Johnson is battling through perhaps his worst season. Thankfully, that won't be the focus for this game against Bulldogs and the emotions of this fixture could generate enough fizz to help NZW grab a win. This will bring an end to the Shaun Johnson era of NZW, an 11-year period in which NZW made a Grand Final thanks to the emergence of Johnson in 2011 and had two more finals appearances.
NZW played finals footy in three of the 11 years of Johnson's career at NZW. That's a dose of cold reality that none of us want to ponder and yet the highs of last year, followed by the lows of this year tell a story that NZW fans know all too well. Given that NZW have played finals footy in nine of the 29 years they have existed, including different owners, staff and players, it would be almost insane to expect NZW to brush themselves off with high expectations for next season.
That is the challenge that awaits James Fisher-Harris. Many coaches and players have left winning teams with a desire to change things at Mt Smart, most have failed. Fisher-Harris will not bring Addin Fonua-Blake's stats and he (probably) won't bring the highlights of Johnson, but Fisher-Harris will bring something that very few winning recruits have offered NZW in the past.
Wikipedia says that 'mana is a supernatural force that permeates the universe' and 'to have mana implies influence, authority and efficacy'. Add in 'mana is the central concept that underlies Maori leadership and accountability'. Apparently Fisher-Harris has the mana of five men and this has been on show throughout his time at Penrith Panthers, as well as his time with Aotearoa Kiwis.
Mana can't be measured and it isn't a tangible thingy, let alone a statistic or a highlights reel. There is nothing that can be written here to convince you that NZW will be better next season and more successful across all of their teams. Nothing about the 29 years of mediocrity suggests things will change, all that is left is believing in a supernatural force that permeates the universe.
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