New Zealand Warriors are back on home turf with a Friday night game vs Manly Sea Eagles and after a lacklustre performance in a distant land, they need to find some juice at the temple of Mt Smart. Coach Andrew Webster has predictably named the same crew that lost vs Canberra Raiders and as Erin Clark is named to start as a middle forward, there is always a chance that coach Webster embraces his love for Jackson Ford once again with a late switch-a-roo.

The loss vs Raiders was covered in depth here. Since that defeat by 22 points, three other NRL teams lost by a bigger margin in round one. This eased the pain slightly and anything is possible for NZW returning to Mt Smart where kiwi rugby league fans show out in force. The Mt Smart vibe is now amplified by Auckland FC in their first A-League season and both teams will play at the temple this weekend, so perhaps NZW can tap into the increased mana offered by the Blue Riders.

Don't view this as a competition between NZW and Auckland FC though. This is all about Mt Smart being home to the most popular sports teams based in Auckland and this weekend will again show that more folks show up at Mt Smart to watch these teams, than other teams based at Eden Park.

NZW didn't have much of a home advantage last season as they went 6-5 at Mt Smart, following the 2023 season in which they had an 8-4 record at home. That dubious home record last year is going to be challenged by a fizzed up Sea Eagles team who smoked North Queensland Cowboys in their first game.

Sea Eagles have the perfect recipe to beat NZW. They are faster than NZW and have better kickers who can dictate territory, as well as an aggressive forward pack. That smells a lot like the Raiders in round one and like Raiders, Sea Eagles will have a bigger forward pack who could monster the home team.

Every team but Gold Coast Titans has played a game which provides an opportunity to check how some NZW pockets compared to other teams in round one. According to NRL.com NZW had the most decoy runs in the first round and with 57 decoys, they were one of four teams over 50. The other two teams were Sea Eagles, Storm and Rabbitohs who all had wins to start their season.

Despite having a similar number of decoy runners as Sea Eagles, NZW had 38 supports which was almost half of Sea Eagles who had 69 supports. NZW had lots of decoy runners and fewer supports compared to the rest of the NRL, which is aligned with the viewing experience of watching NZW shifting sideways to sidelines and not helping their mates by pushing up with them.

The lack of supports was highlighted in the debrief from round one with Wayde Egan used as the key example because he was usually by himself when slowly creeping out of dummy half. Not only were NZW one of two teams along with Parramatta Eels who had less than 40 supports, they had 21 tackle breaks which was ranked 14th (of 16) in round one.

NZW weren't breaking tackles to even set up the opportunity to pass to support runners, if they had any. Another notable pocket was kick return metres as NZW had 125.3 vs Raiders which was ranked 13th and was significantly lower than their 195.5 kick return metres per game last season.

All of which provides space for improvement and most of the issues against Raiders stem from a lack of energy and intensity. In theory there should be a Mt Smart boost to these aspects of NZW footy and hopefully that then provides NZW with better opportunities for attacking shape. Attacking shape is more technical and tactical, yet it stems from winning the collision and dominating the opposition physically to flow into attacking movements.

The good news for NZW folks is that the depth is simmering away in NSW Cup and the reserve grade team started their season with win vs Raiders last weekend. The same team has been named for the game vs Sea Eagles to be played before the NRL encounter and while coach Webster doesn't move quickly in changing his selections, most of the NSW Cup team is capable of earning selection in the NRL.

Here are some NSW Cup stats from round one that were published in our Monday newsletter that has NZW notes across all levels every week...

Best stat lines for NZ Warriors in NSW Cup

Morgan Harper: 17 runs - 158m @ 9.2m/run, 3 tackle breaks, 2 offloads, 5 tackles @ 100%
Moala Graham-Taufa: 10 runs - 118m @ 11.8m/run, 3 tackle breaks, 7 tackles @ 100%
Tom Ale: 47mins, 19 runs - 166m @ 8.7m/run, 3 tackle breaks, 18 tackles @ 94.7%
Jacob Laban: 80mins, 15 runs - 110m @ 7.3m/run, 9 tackle breaks, 1 offload, 30 tackles @ 93.7%
Tanner Stowers-Smith: 39mins, 12 runs - 123m @ 10.2m/run, 4 tackle breaks, 1 offload, 22 tackles @ 100%
Toby Crosby: 21mins, 6 runs - 63m @ 10.5m/run, 15 tackles @ 100%

Sam Healey from dummy half

Running: 8 runs - 43m @ 5.3m/DHR
Kicking: 2 kicks - 29m

Halves mahi

Kicking

Te Maire Martin: 2 kicks - 66m
Tanah Boyd: 8 kicks - 178m

Receipts | Passes | Runs

Te Maire Martin: 41 | 33 | 12
Tanah Boyd: 50 | 40 | 14

One try assist each, Boyd kicked 3/3 conversions

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As an exercise to show how flush the NSW Cup team is with players capable of adding to the NRL group, here is an alternative NZW NRL team that has a few veterans but the point is to select as many NSW Cup players as possible...

Fullback: Taine Tuaupiki
Wings: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Moala Graham-Taufa
Centres: Ali Leiataua, Rocco Berry
Halves: Tanah Boyd, Te Maire Martin
Middles: James Fisher-Harris, Bunty Afoa, Erin Clark
Edges: Jacob Laban, Leka Halasima
Hooker: Wayde Egan
Bench: Samuel Healey, Tom Ale, Demitric Vaimauga, Eddie Ieremia-Toeava
18th/19th lads: , Tanner Stowers-Smith, Sio Kali

Having had the same NSW Cup team named for two games, it's easy to see why Zyon Maiu'u took up an opportunity with Bulldogs. Given the way coach Webster has selected his NRL team which flows down to the NSW Cup group, Maiu'u would have been on the bench behind Ale and Afoa as props.

Maiu'u has had a wee promotion in starting at prop for the Bulldogs in NSW Cup, although he hasn't been named in the Bulldogs wider squad for their first two NRL games. As exciting as Maiu'u was in the NZW system, his place has been taken by Toby Crosby in the NSW Cup team as he has been selected on the bench for both NSW Cup games.

There is a clear trend of NZW slowing development down across their top-three tiers to start this season. Youngsters have always had a slow-brew for coach Webster at the NRL level, while Crosby is the only player who has been promoted from the junior ranks to NSW Cup to start this season. There are lads like Ieremia-Toeava, Stowers-Smith and Kayliss Fatialofa who are youngsters playing NSW Cup, however they played lots of reserve grade last season.

The Under 21 Jersey Flegg Cup team has Motu Pasikala, Luke Hanson, Rodney Tuipulotu-Vea, Makaia Tafua, Harry Durbin, Jacob Auloa and Etuate Fukofuka who all played varying amounts of NSW Cup last year. The only U21 lads who are playing NSW Cup have already had consistent doses of NSW Cup before, while the rest of the U21 lads who could be playing NSW Cup are starting this season in Jersey Flegg Cup.

The quality and experience in the U21 team makes their 4-50 loss vs Raiders last weekend rather stink. We will see how they perform as they settle into the grind of weekly footy and trips to Australia every few rounds, which continues on Saturday vs Sea Eagles in Pukekohe.

Caelys Putoko was a funky inclusion for NZW U21s having joined Titans for the 2024 season soon after making the NZ Schools rugby union team in 2023. Putoko played rugby league in Tokoroa for Forestland while also playing rugby union for Hamilton Boys High School 1st 15 and has been named at centre for the U21 Warriors in their first two games.

Jett Cleary played as halfback in the big loss vs Raiders and now James Marriott is named at halfback alongside Hanson. Marriott joined NZW from Sunshine Coast Falcons which means NZW have recruited another young play-maker from Australia, reinforcing this theme across all levels of the NZW pipeline.

The NZW U21 team this week also has Brandon Norris (Northern Territory), Hanson (Penrith) and Jackson Kite (Sunshine Coast) named as players from Australia. Aside from these lads and Putoko, all other players selected in Jersey Flegg Cup this round have come through the NZW system.

Our Monday/Friday newsletter always has Kiwi-NRL/NRLWahine notes too.

Peace and love.