2025 NRL Finals Fizz For New Zealand Warriors: Taking Stock & Early Ideas
New Zealand Warriors will play NRL finals for the second season of the two Andys era and given that they made the finals just once in 11 seasons prior to coach Andrew Webster taking over, being sad about finals footy seems insane. Coach Webster lead NZW to finish fourth in 2023 and sixth this season, both of which are the highest regular season placings for NZW since Ivan Cleary departed as head coach after the 2011 season.
That's 14 NRL seasons with three finals appearances, two of which are in the last three years and they are the best seasons for NZW in this period. Finishing sixth is a fair reflection of the season for NZW as they have battled to stay in finals footy despite losing Mitchell Barnett and Luke Metcalf, plus they lost both games vs Canberra Raiders and lost their games vs Melbourne Storm and Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs this season.
NZW had a win and a loss against Brisbane Broncos, while their best win of the season was a demolition of Cronulla Sharks in Australia. NZW lost their game vs Penrith Panthers earlier in the season which sets up the finals encounter at Mt Smart as that loss against Panthers was an early indicator of the struggles in front of big crowds at Mt Smart stadium.
It's worth highlighting that Metcalf played in the two home losses vs Raiders and Panthers, so losing in front of big crowds at Mt Smart includes Metcalf. Barnett on the other hand didn't lose a game at Mt Smart this season and his 9-2 record before a season-ending injury shows his value to the NZW team.
Biggest crowds at Mt Smart this season
vs Raiders: 26,512 - loss
vs Eels: 25,012 - loss
vs Panthers: 25,012 - loss
vs Titans: 24,212 - loss
vs Tigers: 24,112 - win
There is lots of crossover between NZW and Panthers, to the point where both organisations are recruiting juniors from both development pipelines. On the footy field they have played three games in Australia and one in Auckland, with NZW winning the 2024 encounter to have a 1-3 record in these four games.
NZ Warriors vs Panthers in two Andys era
2023 in Brisbane: 6-18 loss
2023 in Sydney: 6-32 loss
2024 in Brisbane: 22-20 win
2025 in Auckland: 18-28 loss
Panthers hosted NZW for the 2023 finals game. Players who lined up for NZW for that game and have since departed are Marcelo Montoya, Dylan Walker, Addin Fonua-Blake, Tohu Harris, Jazz Tevaga, Bayley Sironen and Josh Curran. Barnett played that game and is now injured, while Freddy Lussick was on the bench and he is highly unlikely to play this finals game vs Panthers.
Erin Clark has been the best NZW player this season and the three years of the two Andys era sum up Clark's development. Clark played most of his games in 2023 coming off the bench but he finished that season with four consecutive starts as a middle forward in which he played 50+ minutes in three of them and 41 minutes in the last game.
All up Clark started five games in 2023 and they were all as a middle forward, then he started six games as a middle forward in 2024. His minutes per game were almost identical in his last two seasons at Titans where he transitioned from a hooker who could cover other positions, to a small forward who could dabble in dummy half mahi.
Clark played 46mins coming off the bench in round one of the 2025 season and has since started every game that followed. All of Clark's stats have increased with more game time and this culminated in him playing all 80mins vs Sea Eagles, with season highs for tackle breaks (eight) and offloads (six).
Erin Clark ranking in various stats for NZW players
Post contact metres: 1st
Offloads: 1st
Tackles: 1st
Runs: 2nd
Run metres: 3rd
Tackle breaks: 3rd
Clark's speed and power makes gives NZW oomph through the middle but Clark is also the distribution hub as a passing forward. Below are the number of passes Clark made in a selection of games (home losses vs Raiders and Panthers, then last three games of the season) and Clark had the most passes for players not in the halves or at hooker.
Erin Clark passing in selection of games
vs Raiders: 10 passes
vs Panthers: 18 passes
vs Titans: 8 passes
vs Eels: 15 passes
vs Sea Eagles: 17 passes
Clark is the most impactful runner in the forwards and makes the most passes as the distribution hub of the forward pack. Clark is also the leading offloader for NZW by a notable margin as his 37 offloads isn't far off being twice as many as the next best offloader in Demitric Vaimauga's 21 offloads this season.
NZW fans need to be prepared for a conservative style of footy in this finals game vs Panthers as that is the general recipe for coach Webster. There are avenues to a wee bit more funk in how NZW play though these avenues are most evident in Samuel Healey, which makes his role in the finals match up something to watch out for.
Healey may not even be selected in the team to play finals footy though. Wayde Egan should return to his starting hooker role and coach Webster loves having Te Maire Martin on the bench. There is a chance to get super duper deluxe funky with Martin and Healey on the bench together, which would come at the expense of a young forward if Jackson Ford returns to the team.
In his three games of playing 40+ minutes this season, Healey has combined for four offloads and 13 tackle breaks. He has also scooted for 70+ metres in all three of those games and is more creative around the ruck than Martin, while having a more unpredictable style than Egan with Healey bouncing around compared to Egan's precise running to attack lazy markers.
Samuel Healey in games playing 40+ minutes
vs Sharks: 47mins, 7 DHR - 67m, 9.5m/run, 2 tackle breaks, 1 offload, 27 tackles @ 87%
vs Dolphins: 61mins, 6 DHR - 51m @ 8.5m/run, 4 tackle breaks, 2 offload, 38 tackles @ 90.4%
vs Sea Eagles: 64mins, 6 DHR - 55m @ 9.1m/run, 7 tackle breaks, 1 offload, 42 tackles @ 87.5%
Another intriguing selection decision for coach Webster is plugging the Rocco Berry hole at right centre. Berry only played nine games this season, didn't finish four of them and somehow he went from being under-rated to over-rated in those nine games. Berry is not a lockdown defensive centre and this is evident in him dropping below 90% tackling efficiency for the first year of his five NRL seasons (85.8%) as well as watching Berry grasp at ghosts as attackers run into holes either side of him.
Lacking consistent game time, there has been little room for Berry to grow into his attacking role. Having played most of this season without Berry, a bunch of other players have already filled this position and while Kurt Capewell could do the job, the funkiest scenario includes getting Taine Tuaupiki back into the team to add more attacking spark.
This involves Charnze Nicoll-Kloksatd moving to centre to join Adam Pompey in these positions. There is also the wrinkle of Ali Leiataua being out injured and unlikely to play any more footy in 2025, otherwise a Pompey/Leiataua combo would be the next best option. Tuaupiki is averaging 3.9 tackle breaks and 0.6 offloads per game this season, so his vibrant attacking play is aligned with Healey.
Tuaupiki doesn't offer the same metre-eating runs as Nicoll-Klokstad and Panthers would be keen to target the smaller fullback with their fabulous kicking game. NZW also have more forwards who can cover centre with Capewell joined by Leka Halasima who looked more comfortable at right centre than Berry in a small dose vs Sea Eagles.
Which leads into the workloads of the young forwards and while relying on younger players to step up in finals footy is not a recipe for success, this is a highly beneficial situation for the organisation. Halasima covered both edges against Sea Eagles and this is what makes him such a useful bench player, while Eddie Ieremia-Toeava has already played left edge, middle and right edge in his first five games of NRL footy.
Ieremia-Toeava has impressed with how easily he has adjusted to NRL footy and his mana was evident in how he battled on despite clearly being in pain vs Sea Eagles. He is equally capable of playing edge and middle so if he is available, Ieremia-Toeava adds value to the bench but he would probably make way for Ford's return.
All the experts predicted that NZW would struggle this season because of the players they lost from their underwhelming 2024 campaign, most of which were forwards. NZW made the NRL finals this season thanks to their young forwards stepping up to play bigger roles than they would have anticipated. They may not all play against Panthers but these young forwards have already laid foundation blocks for the future at Mt Smart.
Young forwards minutes
Demitric Vaimauga | 21yrs
Season average: 31.9
Minutes in last five games: 54, 41, 31, 34, 43
Leka Halasima | 19yrs
Season average: 55.8
Minutes in last five games: 43, 48, 26, 46, 75
Jacob Laban | 21yrs
Season average: 33.8
Minutes in last five games: 58, 15, 32, 26, 17
Tanner Stowers-Smith | 21yrs
Season average: 30.4
Minutes in last five games: 46, 33, 41, 39, 36
Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | 20yrs
Season average: 34.2
Minutes in last five games: 24, 32, 44, 36, 35
To support The Niche Cache you can join the Patreon whanau or donate through Buy Me A Coffee. A little goes a long way to fund our mahi. Smash an ad.
Peace and love.