Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks

MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey

Monday 3 February, 12.30pm

So, here we are. 151 days after the Denver Broncos opened the 2013 NFL season by demolishing defending champs Baltimore, they close it on the biggest possible stage, as they take on Seattle for the right to call themselves the World Champions*.

*Yeah, it’s pretty conceited to have a ‘World Championship’ in which no other country is invited, but for linguistic purposes, it just sounds cool. And it’s not like the collective talents of European Grid Iron could have much to say about the title.

As always, there are sooo many story lines to cover. Peyton, Sherman, Champ Bailey, the half time show, the weather, to name just… 5. We’ll begin, however, with how these two great teams (the two best teams all season – if you got a problem, San Francisco, you shoulda won last week) managed to scale the mountain to the peak of the sport.

Peyton Manning (Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Denver Broncos:

They opened the season with that demolition of Baltimore, and kept that level of play up all year. Peyton Manning threw TDs for fun and his receiving corps made defences flinch from sea to shining sea. Offensive records were broken across the board, although there were one or two stumbles along the way. Having narrowly avoided the big L in Dallas, they beat Jacksonville the next week, though failed to cover the biggest ever line in NFL history. Against his old team, the Indianapolis Colts, Peyton suffered his first loss of the year, and they blew a massive early lead to lose in overtime to New England in week 12. The Chargers topped them in a shootout, but that was surrounded by mechanical demolitions of Houston, Oakland, and Tennessee. Peyton broke the record for both passing yards (5477) and passing touchdowns (55) in a season, Matt Prater kicked the longest ever field goal, and their 606 offensive points was an NFL record too.

Despite people questioning Peyton Manning’s postseason fragility, and his ability to play well in bad weather, they managed to hold off the Chargers in the Divisional Round, though it took a late 3rd and 17 conversion to make it happen. New England, however, didn’t even come close as they were dismantled by the rampant Broncos offence – something Tom Brady and company were definitely not used to. But they just couldn’t get any pressure on Peyton, who wasn’t sacked at all and didn’t turn the ball over once, and he sure made them pay.

Seattle Seahawks:

Seattle were early season Superbowl picks for many a bluffer and TV spindler. Their home form is notoriously near perfect, and when you can basically guarantee 7 or 8 wins at home, a deep playoff run is likely. They delivered exactly that. It wasn’t always pretty, but this team has learned how to win the tight ones, and their defence is second to none. On 6 separate occasions they kept an opponent under 10 points, including a shutout of the Giants in week 15. The Legion of Boom seemed to force turnovers at will, and they sure let people know about it. They, too, lost their first game of the year to the Colts, yet started 11-1, before losing away to San Fran, and a couple weeks later having their near 2-year unbeaten home streak abolished by a desperate Arizona.

Russell Wilson established himself this year as a legitimately great quarterback, and Marshawn Lynch bulldozes defensive linemen for a living (metaphorically bulldozes; literally for a living). They didn’t break records like Denver, but they were equally dominant all year. Come postseason, they were lucky to beat New Orleans who blew a great chance in Seattle, outplaying the ‘Hawks but just not taking the chances available, while San Francisco came to town hungry for the NFC Championship, only to be beaten off and sent packing, not without some trouble mind you. It took a big second half effort, and late turnovers to see them off. Now Denver awaits in New York (what a strange thing to say…).

Peyton Manning vs Russell Wilson: Head to Head

I’m a pretty strong believer that come this stage of the season, the most important distinction between close teams, the ultimate tiebreaker, is the talent of the respective quarterbacks. The better QB’s team will normally win. In this case we have two muchachos at the opposite ends of their careers. One, arguably the best young QB of the best draft class in 30 years (he’s not, Andy Luck is, but like I say: ‘arguably’), the other perhaps the greatest of all time. So, Peyton wins this battle, right?

Umm, yeah, put simply he does. But that’s not to say lil Rusty doesn’t give him a bit of a run. P.Manning does everything, there’s no real weakness to his game. His arm strength isn’t so flash any more, and he doesn’t move around outside the pocket (mostly coz he doesn’t have to). We know how to get to him, you have to pressure him in the pocket, but that’s easier said than done.

Rusty meanwhile, is 12 years younger than Manning, and as a teenager actually attended his quarterback academy. He’s a brilliant game manager, drawing comparisons to Tom Brady (Manning’s arch-rival), though that’s pretty premature. Wilson doesn’t have the accuracy to match Brady or Manning, and although he moves sharply and elusively, he isn’t the best playmaker. What these two men share however, above all the tangibles of their games, is the ability to win. It’s something you cannot coach, but something that the greats all have. When the chips are down, when things aren’t going their way, they find a way to prevail. Plenty of great quarterbacks can punish teams on the good days, only the best still do it on the bad ones.

Breaking it Down

Quarterback - Denver

Running Back - Seattle

Rest of the Offence - Denver

Defensive Front - Seattle

Defensive Backs - Seattle

Coach - Seattle

Special Teams - Denver

New York, New York

For the first time ever, the Superbowl will be held outdoors and in the cold. The weather in New Jersey is expected to be on the right side of freezing, but not by a whole lot. Forecasts say it probably won’t rain, and that it most likely won’t snow either. So, that’s a bonus for the 82,500 fans sitting out there exposed to whatever Acts of God may occur. Technically, it’s against the rules to have a Superbowl in such a cold city, but Roger Goodell waived that right for the good of the faithful folks of the greater New York area. If you wanna split hairs, MetLife Stadium is over the state lines in New Jersey, but it is home to both New York teams so hey what the hell, close enough, right? The Superbowl is expected to bring in excess of $100m of revenue to the area, although only about 10% of that will end up in the bank accounts of the locals, since basically everything surrounding the event will be NFL licensed and owned. It’s kinda like having the circus in town. The gypsies will definitely leave their mark.

As to how the game is actually affected by all this? Peyton Manning has very few flaws in his game, but his post season record doesn’t quite stack up to his regular season one. The most commonly held explanation is that he struggles in bad weather. Y’know, as if other QBs don’t. The Colts after all play indoors, and he hadn’t until now made a run with the Broncos. And nothing they faced yet will compare to what they’ll get in NJ. Obviously Seattle will be affected to some degree too, although they’re more used to it. Plus it better suits their game. The cold weather makes it harder to perform athletically, especially for quarterbacks, making offence harder, and this defence easier. And Seattle is a defensive team.

The Lowdown

This game is the unstoppable force against the immovable object. The best offence vs the best defence. And usually in these tussles, it’s the other side of the ball that decides the outcome. Who wins out of Denver’s D and Seattle’s O? San Diego, Indianapolis, New England and almost Dallas have shown the way to beat Denver – you gotta draw them into a shootout and get them playing sloppy. This defence is vulnerable to the deep ball – it’s how the Ravens beat them last Playoffs. The thing is, Seattle is a very organised team who don’t sling the ball around barely at all. In playing the percentages, they’re probably gonna invite an old fashioned arm wrestle up front, which Denver will definitely be up for. The more they can throw players forward and try to rush the QB, the better they’ll be. Missing Von Miller, their best pass rusher, is a huge blow, even if they’ve missed him most of the year. Seattle won’t be too upset about a game like this, but they need to throw the ball around and stretch that Denver D out if Marshawn Lynch is gonna have the effect they need him to. I don’t really see Seattle winning this game with a late drive like Denver certainly could (Peyton woulda finished off where Colin Kaepernick couldn’t last week), so they’ll need to be playing from in front and controlling the pace of the game. Trying to limit Peyton’s time on the field is a risky move, since it gives you fewer possessions to match him, though if anyone can, its Pete Carroll’s team but if they do choose to play that strategy, one thing is for sure – they need to take their chances in the secondary, because Peyton will not make many errors. If Richard Sherman wants to test himself against the best, he’s got his wish.

Denver knows what they have to do. Score points, early and often. Seattle isn’t capable of the comeback New England had earlier in the year so if Denver blows out early, then the second half could be a matter of going through the emotions. Peyton Manning is well aware that this could be his last chance on this grand stage, and he’ll be absolutely determined not to fail. Not a lot of the players here have played a Superbowl - Champ Bailey is going there for the first time in a 12-time Pro Bowl career – yet having a leader with the experience under his belt (as both a winner and loser) is immeasurable. He will not crumble. Potentially he plays slightly conservative, since turnovers so often decide NFL games, and if this is the case, Seattle imperatively needs to get pressure on him. In fact they need to do that anyway. Above all else, they beyond doubt at all cost need to pressure Peyton Manning. So much of Denver’s running game comes from the depth and coverage needed to protect against their passing game, plus putting pressure on Peyton forces him into tough decisions, and as the offensive line recedes, so does the run game. It’s happened before.

How Denver Will Win:

Peyton Manning
Run the ball effectively
Contain Marshawn Lynch

How Seattle Will Win:

PRESSURE THE QB!
Play with the lead – dictate the pace of the game
Do NOT turn the ball over

For Your Entertainment:

For a large portion of the global audience, the Superbowl is not about the game, but the 15-20 minute half time show (which must be so frustrating for players who just want to get out there and play). In the past we’ve seen such crowd pleasing favourites as Bruce Springsteen, Beyonce and the Rolling Stones who were all excellent, and then not so great performances from The Who (blame that one on the sloppy technicians), the Black Eyed Peas (who just plain suck) and Justin Timberlake/Janet Jackson (for nipple-related reasons).

This year they’ve gone for a half-trustworthy senior pro/half ‘the kids’ll love him’ lineup. Bruno Mars and the Red Hot Chili Peppers. The Chili’s will be great and though I’m not a huge fan of Bruno Mars (if that is his real name…), he’s a solid performer in his own right. I’m optimistic. Especially since rumours are they’re rehearsing a cover of Led Zepp’s ‘Dazed and Confused’, which sounds just risky enough to work. Opera singer Renee Fleming will sing the anthem, for the sophisticated viewers to tip their glasses and raise their pinkies to.

At one stage they weren’t actually gonna have a half time show due to the logistics in the cold weather, but they went down that road once before in ’92, and lost a huge chunk of viewership when the lounge-roomers flicked the channel and never came back (FOX was running a special live episode of ‘In Living Color’ – whatever the hell that was.). The next year the NFL called Michael Jackson and the rest was history.

But Wait… Who Did Madden 25 Pick?

Wildcard’s Pick: Can I get a drumroll please?

Thank you.

After much consideration, and countless hours* of watching highlights and scouring the entire internet** for any sign of a swing in one way or another, I have come to a measured and undeniable conclusion. I believe that Superbowl XLVIII*** will be won by a margin of 4 points by… The Denver Broncos. Peyton Manning to throw 2 TDs and no interceptions, both running backs with 100 yards, but after trading a field goal and a touchdown each, Denver score just before the half for a 17-10 lead, and score on their first possession of the second, and despite a late, desperate effort, a couple of interceptions cost Seattle in the end. Seattle fails on a late 4th down and the Broncos run out the clock. Another crowning moment in the storied career of Peyton Mannign. The End.

* Not literally. Hours are quantifiable. I don’t have a time machine****.

** http://www.1112.net/lastpage.html

*** 48

**** Oh, man, imagine if I did have a time machine...

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. Along with his weekly NFL previews on this site, he is the author of several best-selling NFL biographies, such as: 'Aaron Hernandez: At The Tight End of the Law', 'A Boy Named Suh: The Ndamukong Story' and 'The Reggie White Album'. Contrary to popular opinion, he is not the one who knocks.