The Wildcard’s Guide to the NFL - Week 9
Last Week: 11-4
New Orleans Saints (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (3-4-1)
We’re almost at the halfway stage and already teams are playing with their seasons on the line.
New Orleans started that phase last week and they triumphantly beat up the Packers, literally and figuratively. Massive win. Meanwhile Carolina let one slip against Seattle (as many teams have the last few seasons, no shame there). Both of them are competing for the division title in the NFC South, because neither is sneaking in with a wildcard. Not with Philly/Dallas, Seattle/San Fran/Arizona and Green Bay/Detroit all juking it out. That makes this Thursday Night/Friday Afternoon (UST/NZT) clash something else - we’ve got a tiebreaker on the line that could be the tipping point in the race.
I didn’t watch New Orleans play Green Bay, so suffice to say I still don’t understand what happened. They have a run game!? A secondary defensive unit!? Drew Brees has still got it!? Ok, the last bit I suspected but the other two threw me. The Saints are a great home team, though, maybe I slept on that. Don’t know if I can back them on the road.
Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-3)
The Good News: The Browns (once again, terrible name) avoided the catastrophe of losing to 0-6 teams in back to back weeks when they comfortably got past the woeful Raiders. They win here and they’ll have as many wins in the last 3 weeks as their opponents in that stretch have all season.
The Bad News: The NBA season has started and so nobody in Cleveland (understandably) gives a damn about football any longer. LBJ all the way, baby!
Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 10
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1)
A couple kitty cats, only one team has claws
Only one ever wins though they both have their flaws
The Jags already done, selling nothing but snores
Bengals started strong but they’ve been limping for sure
AJ Green is ready to bounce back from his hurt toe
Andy Dalton with some issues but snuck the winner in last show
If Green is playing then this offence is slaying
Defence still hurt but those still standing are baying
For blood.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 14
Arizona Cardinals (6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
Time for the Wildcard’s Cowboys Corner, where I wax lyrical about my team and the dizzying peaks and vast, soulless valleys to which they take me, often in the space of two plays. Last week the lads lost to Washington, and finally a few niggling worries that appeared briefly in my mind as unwanted thoughts over the past few weeks really emerged.
First up, the reliance on Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray. Romo got hurt, Brandon Weeden came in and did a good job. Yet if he’d punched in a TD that first drive it mighta been different (his second was superb though). Murray had a season low 19 carries, not using him in OT I’m fine with, the R**skins were looking for it, that’s just reacting to what the defence gives you. Still, I’m terrified over the fact that he’s run 60-odd times more than anyone else, stunning offensive line or not. And without Romo for a full game, we’ve no chance. Hence I expect him to play this game.
Also, the defence was weak. Couldn’t make third down stops, and lacking QB pressure. The pass rush has been dicey all season and that’s better than anticipated by most. Injuries are hurting too, no pun intended. There was no depth here to begin with.
Aaand the fact that Romo took some hits. Heavy ones. He got slammed multiple times by third down blitzes. That was the main reason that this game went the way it did. The offence couldn’t produce early (7 points at the break) and it was due to, for whatever reason, that pressure. Did Romo not spot it? Was it a blocking issue? Coaches unprepared? Credit the Bleepskins but that ain’t pretty.
Still, I’m delusional enough to write it all off as an off day against a tough divisional opponent. The Cardinals are getting plucked and roasted Monday morning.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 3
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) at Houston Texans (4-4)
If it weren’t for Ryan Fitzpatrick I’d have many more nice things to say about the Texans, it’s the same story as the Matt Schaub era. It’s not that the stats aren’t decent, I dunno, I guess a contender can’t just settle for ‘decent’. Zero match winning drives or 4Q comebacks is interesting coz he’s had chances, their last 3 losses have come by 7 or less. Fitzy only has 9 GWDs in his career, which is fewer than Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton or Matt Stafford. Jeezus, even Josh Freeman has 10! Schaub, by the way, found himself on the field last game for Oakland briefly, throwing a woeful pick on a fake field goal attempt. Who gets intercepted on a fake kick play!? The defence aren’t even looking!
I give Houston the edge in running and a slight one in defence, Philly in QB play and special teams. Ooh, this is tough…
Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 3
New York Jets (1-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)
Right. Well, that rules that idea out. I guess the Jets just suck then.
Even still, if I don’t see any Chiefs fans in dog ghost costumes this week, I’ll be disappointed.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 17
San Diego Chargers (5-3) at Miami Dolphins (4-3)
I’ve loved the Dolphins recently, but I’ve loved the Chargers all season. Losing to Denver doesn’t change that one bit.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 6
Washington Pro Football Team (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-5)
Robert Griffin III is back. A couple months off with injury and all of a sudden his reputation is wildly enhanced. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, as they say. Kirk Cousins threw a flood of interceptions before getting benched for Colt McCoy, who did really well but was never a shot at the starting spot long term. RG3 is in an even though he’s traditionally struggled when anything less than 100%, this team showed against the Cowboys that they’re pretty well coached and they have the weapons to challenge teams in every aspect. Not to dominate, but at least to challenge. Minnesota were built around the Adrian Peterson run game, without him there’s not too much. But I have high hopes for Teddy Bridgewater eventually.
Wildcard’s Pick: WPFT by 4
St Louis Rams (2-5) at San Francisco 49ers (4-3)
I dunno, this just doesn’t feel like a close game. I’ve been unfair to the Rams a few times and I do like them, really. I’m just not sold this year. Perhaps they get some solid pressure with that improving pass rush? Eh, still don’t see the Niners dropping this one at home.
Wildcard’s Pick: 49ers by 7
Denver Broncos (6-1) at New England Patriots (6-2)
Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady: The single greatest QB rivalry of the last decade-plus.
Denver has been in Superbowl form all season. Not the Superbowl form they brought to the actual Superbowl, but the kind of form that’ll likely get them back there. Meanwhile the Patriots rode out a poor start but have recently been lights-out, go-to-bed, no-supper, no-bedtime-story good. They got lucky against the Jets but that was a Thursday night game and they still didn’t make too many mistakes.
- Brady’s last 4 games: 1268 yards, 14 TDs, 0 INTs for 4 wins.
- P.Manning’s last 4 games: 1320 yards, 14 TDs, 2 INTs for 4 wins.
Split that pair, will ya? The only difference is that Peyton’s been doing this for a year and a half.
Denver’s running away with a 13/14 win season. The Pats have Gronk in health and in form and this game’s being played in Foxborough. I’m gonna spot this as a rare Broncos loss, if only because they’ve got to drop one sooner or later, just for appearances. This seems as likely a chance as any.
Let it be known that betting against the Broncs is keeping me up at night with regret and anxiety.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 0.01
Oakland Raiders (0-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
Seattle has not been the dominant Superbowl champions that we expected them to be. They won’t need to be at home to Oakland. Keep an eye out on the Marshawn Lynch fiasco, word is he won’t be back in Seattle next season, imagine what that does for a guy. He’s either effectively in a contract year or he’s pissed and doesn’t care. Skittles won’t be happy.
I wonder how likely it is that our defending champs miss the playoffs? Home and away to Arizona and San Francisco yet to come, away to Philadelphia and Kansas City yet to come. All in a six game stretch that’ll basically decide their season. You can’t discount a massive improvement come playoff time but, damn, they’ve been underwhelming recently. Home to the Raiders and Giants should have them 6-3 going into that aforementioned stretch, say they split and it’s 9-6 going into week 17, at home to the Rams. Hmm. Sloppy as it was, that win over Carolina last week now seems crucial.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 13
Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
Playoff implications!
I finished The Wire Season 4, the finale really shredded me. No spoilers here, because that’d be inhumane to ruin possibly the greatest season of television ever put to air. I see a little Jimmy McNulty about this Ravens side, though. They tried taking it easy for a while there but now I think they’re ready to go chasing glory again. Fair to say they haven’t been as flash as they’d hoped since their Superbowl triumph. This is a statement game for two sides battling for probably battling for a single playoff spot. The Ravens are the Major Crimes Unit and Ben Roethlisberger is Marlo Stanfield, dropping bodies for the hell of it.
(I haven’t started the final season yet, don’t tell me how it ends)
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 3
Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at New York Giants (3-4)
The great thing about watching Andrew Luck is that you never feel like he (yeah, or his team) is/are out of the game. Think back to that massive playoff comeback over the Chiefs last season. Luck threw a bunch of picks to give up a massive lead, and then he stormed his side back to win. Historic stuff. He makes some silly errors, he’s not quite in that top tier yet, but even three touchdowns down going into the final quarter, it always feels like he’s got a comeback in him. Pittsburgh were able to hold the Colts off in that sort of situation last week by throwing the ball, not killing the clock but keeping up the scoreboard pressure. It took 522 passing yards and 6 Big Ben TDs to beat the Colts. Peyton Manning did the same by throwing the ball and the Eagles beat them late by keeping the ball moving at all times.
The flipside is that against those three great offences – the Steelers for their troubles are most definitely that, second in total team offensive yards, with Big Ben second in pass yards and Antonio Brown first in receptions and second in receiving yards – the Colts defence was found wanting. They’d been superb on third down most of this season but against Pittsburgh they got rolled at will. They also kept Baltimore to 13 points and Cincinnati to zip. Conflicting evidence, though I still think they’re great. They can afford the odd off game anyway with their division.
Oh, and since they had the bye last week, I didn’t get to rag on the Giants. Nothing’s changed, I still hate them passionately and wish nothing but interceptions and fumbles upon them. KILL ‘EM, LUCK-O!
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 10
BYE: Atlanta Falcons (2-6), Buffalo Bills (5-3), Chicago Bears (3-5), Detroit Lions (6-2), Green Bay Packers (5-3), Tennessee Titans (2-6)
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. If you’re looking for him, he’ll just be sitting on the dock of the bay, watching the tide roll away.