The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 7
Last Week: 10-4
Season: 62-28-1
New York Giants (1-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-4-1)
Friday 1.20pm NZT
Right back at it with the Thursday night stuff and in true TNF fashion it’s a game that literally nobody outside the fans of the two teams will be looking forward to. The NFC East strikes again... at least the league had the decency to bury the Dallas vs Washington game in the early game clutter later in the week. Two NFC East clashes in a single week – the only positive of that is it keeps them from having to play other teams.
NFC East teams went 1-3 last week, with the lone win being a guaranteed one as the Giants played the WFT... and even then if both teams could have lost then they would have. That leaves us, six weeks into the competition, with a combined division record of 5-18-1 (barring any ties that will at least rise to 7-20-1 for next week). Five total wins... there are six individual teams who have five wins all by their lonesome already. And yet... and yet... and yet... whoever wins the division will host a playoff game. Not just make the playoffs but HOST A GAME. Only one accurate way to react to that...
The thing is, this division was gonna suck regardless. The Giants and WFT are deep in rebuilds which meant it the best case scenario was a two-way race which we’ve quickly seen wouldn’t have even been up to much at that, not given the porous Cowboys defence and the turnovers that both they and the Eagles seem to dish out for free. Philly’s squad was already lacking in a bit of depth, particularly in the offensive roles. But both the Cowboys and Eagles have also been ravaged by injury, not to mention the Giants losing Saquon Barkley. This... this is bad...
The Eagles have gotten a little healthier and a little better the last couple weeks. They’re not good but neither are the Giants who the best you can say about them, and it’s true but still, is that they’re honest. They play hard. They don’t cut corners. They’re just not very talented and when Daniel Jones turns the ball over they’re genuinely awful. Philly fell short in the end but they should take plenty of heart from that 22-6 fourth quarter almost-comeback against the Ravens.
Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 10
Detroit Lions (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (1-5)
Monday 6.00am NZT
There’s a fella called D’Andre Swift who plays running back for the Lions. You might not have heard of him, he doesn't tend to get a whole lot of carries. Which is strange because he was the team’s second round draft pick (35th overall) last season and given that running backs often have a short shelf life in this sport and tend to peak quite early in their careers that doesn’t make a whole bucket-load of sense. Prior to last week, the rookie Swift had 12 carries for 42 yards. He was more involved as a receiver where he’d nabbed 13 catches for 124 yards, in fact.
Then against the Jags he had a 116-yard rush day with two scores and if you know the recent history of Detroit running backs then you’ll know those are hallowed numbers – two years ago Kerryon Johnson broke a streak of 70 consecutive games without a ton-tallying rusher, stretching back five years to Reggie Bush. Matt Stafford in his career is 7-1 when a running back tops 100 yards. Matt Stafford has played 154 games in his career. Eight times in 154 games. Not a fantastic ratio.
Matt Patricia likes running backs by committee which is why you’ve also got Adrian Peterson (69 rushes at 4.1 Y/A) and Kerryon Johnson (25 rushes at 3.2 Y/A) on the roster clogging things for Swifty (26 rushes at 6.1 Y/A). Running backs by committee is dumb though. Running backs by situation maybe, nothing wrong with a battering ram dude for red zone plays, but pretty obvious which guy offers the Lions the most upside right now... it’s just odd that they spent a second rounder on him and had hardly even used him before last week. Bit of a waste... you sorta need your top picks to be productive in this league if you wanna be competitive. Maybe he will be from now on.
Last week was the first time the Lions got to play a team with a losing record and they looked alright. They won, which is what matters most. The Falcons also won thanks to Kirk Cousins pissing all down his pants with three picks and you shoot out to a 20-0 lead at half-time then the game gets simple. Best part of that game? Julio Jones finally looked like himself again. Following 6 combined catches for 56 yards in his two prior games, whilst carrying an injury that caused him to also miss a game, he bounced back strong with 8 catches for 137 yards and two scores. Just in time to remind people what he’s capable of before he becomes a trade candidate. Let’s be honest, the Falcons are gonna have to shuffle the deck. Whether that puts Jones or even Matt Ryan on the block, dunno, but they’ll be getting some calls for sure.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 3
Cleveland Browns (4-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-4-1)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Baker Mayfield, aye? What’s to be done with Baker Mayfield. I mean... hear me out here... what’s if nothing is done with Baker Mayfield? As in, what’s if he simply had a bad game against a good defence? It’s a worry because he’s done this against both the Ravens and the Steelers and he’ll have to face each of those lots again with a possible playoff spot on the line in the AFC North... but the Browns have won their other four games with Mayfield throwing two scores in each.
Clearly he can play a lot better than he has been but the idea that he’s “holding this team back” because he’s nothing more than a “game manager” is madness. For one thing because a game manager is all they really need when they have Myles Garrett on one side of the ball and Odell Beckham and that offensive line on the other. A game manager will win them plenty of games and let’s not forget that the last time they started 4-1 (which they were before losing to PIT in wk6) was the year that Friends first debuted on American television. And most importantly... who else are you gonna find midseason who can handle this kinda treatment...
Nobody, that’s who. Not unless you wanna trade away half your draft picks for the next three years on a whim. Nah, save the assets and trust that Mayfield can improve because the main issue here doesn’t seem to be a technical one, it’s a mental one. He’s not got the same brash and bold confidence he came into the league with and somehow he’s gotta rediscover that. This week of public lashings could even be the chip on his shoulder he needs to get going again.
This might be a problem though...
Also, that 2018 quarterback class is a funky one, ain’t it? Whoever made this graphic owes an apology to Josh Rosen for the image of him looking like a homeless guy...
So... Cincinnati blew a 21-0 lead last week. They’re really making a thing of being competitive and still finding ways to not win. Other than last week when that big lead forced the Colts to throw the ball way more, the Bengals have been pretty awful against the run and that just so happens to be Cleveland’s strength. This one’s not hard to pick.
Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 10
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0) at Tennessee Titans (5-0)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Derrick Henry you absolute fiend...
For a guy as incredibly strong as he is, he’s also stunningly quick for his size and you only have to look at that 94 yard score he bagged last week to see that for yourself. NINETY FOUR YARDS. FOR A TOUCHDOWN. He gets the tough ones and he gets the big ones. Since 2018 there have been six examples of a 200 yard rushing game and Derrick Henry has three of them. His 588 yards this season are more than ten different teams have altogether. You could see Deshaun Watson’s reaction when he lost the coin toss in overtime - he knew he wasn’t getting that ball back.
Little bit of a concern for the Steelers with Devin Bush out for the season with an ACL injury. Dude was their 2019 first round pick, a linebacker who had played every single defensive snap this season before the injury. In his second year he was already the lead communicator on that defence – basically the rug that ties the room together. The Steelers will continue to be an excellent defence without him (and even if not the offence is playing better than we had right to anticipate) but yeah that’s a blow to their top ceiling.
Jeezus, what a game this will be though. A week seven matchup between two undefeated teams is automatic watch-worthy. Get that second screen going with this stream on it to complement old mate Hanson on Redzone. This is that rescheduled game that was meant to be played three weeks back before the Titans got all their covid cases, one which kinda spoiled the bye weeks for each of this pair but it means a better clash now that it’s here.
Here’s the pivot: the Steelers have possibly the best rush defence in the damn league. They’re second best in total yards allowed, with the third fewest rush TDs conceded and the second best yards per rush average (a mere 3.3). Whereas the Titans have the league’s leading rusher coming off one of the best games of his career. Unstoppable force against immovable object. How good?
And how about this for a fact: The Steelers are 5-0 for the first time since 1978.
Let’s make it six.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 3
Carolina Panthers (3-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-2)
Monday 6.00am NZT
The Teddy Bridgewater Derby? Can we call it that? Eh, I dunno, both these teams are coming off byes and I don’t really have anything to say about what feels like it’s gonna be all sorts of dink and dunk. Michael Thomas might be back although he’s still dealing with a few injuries so we’ll see on that front. If he plays then that’s a clear tilt to the Saints but if he doesn’t then I really don’t know how to get excited about this one, sorry.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 2
Buffalo Bills (4-2) at New York Jets (0-6)
Monday 6.00am NZT
More from the Fox cartoon avatar beat...
Yeah, no words. Some you hit, some you miss.
Josh Allen Weeks 1-4 (4-0): 70.1% COMP | 331.5 Y/Gm | 12 TD | 1 INT | 10.28 AY/A | 122.7 RATE
Josh Allen Weeks 5-6 (0-2): 28.8% COMP | 192.5 Y/Gm | 4 TD | 3 INT | 4.85 AY/A | 75.9 RATE
Pretty simple one there as the Bills have lost to a couple very good teams (Titans & Chiefs) as those teams have limited what Josh Allen can do. They covered his receivers better, they challenged his decision making leading to some very average throws, and maybe most importantly they gassed that regressive Bills defence and applied scoreboard pressure. This isn’t a case of Allen being a fraud, there’s no such thing in the NFL (player reputations are the responsibility of fans and media) but it’s useful evidence to pump the brakes on this sudden emergence from average dude to quarterback legend in one offseason. Allen is a much improved player, no doubt. He’s not on a level with Mahomes or Wilson or Rodgers, etc.
So... how about that Stefon Diggs touchdown catch?
It’s like, every week you see at least half a dozen of these toe-tapping catches down the sideline. Some for touchdowns, some just for short completions, but all of them reflecting this incredible athleticism and awareness which is almost like a prerequisite for NFL wideouts these days.
In 2016 Adam Gase was hired as the head coach of the Miami Dolphins and took them to a 10-6 record and a playoff spot, where they lost 30-12 to the Steelers. Since then he’s had two years with the Dolphins and is in his second with the Jets and his coaching record reads 20-34. That’s bad but to be fair he’s had some quarterback troubles (injuries and form) and the teams haven’t been fantastic and yadayada. But in 70 games as an NFL head coach his teams have suffered 31 double digit defeats. That includes four separate games in which they were beaten to nil. The only reason he still has a job is because the Jets are happy to tank. They’re the worst team in the NFL.
Shout out to Braden Mann, potentially the only player on the Jets who can be happy with how he’s going. A Jets player who leads the entire league in his major stat category. That stat category? Punt yardage. The man Mann has punted 35 times for 1597 yards (both NFL leading numbers – although his per-punt yardage is only mid-table).
On the plus side for the Jets, they’ll always have this play. You’ve heard of the Butt Fumble, well here’s the inverse version... the Butt Interception...
Mate, that second defender who runs in and nearly knocks the ball loose... that guy is soooo lucky that Marcus Maye regathered that AGAINST HIS BACK. Having already caught it AGAINST HIS ARSE. Never seen anything like that in my life.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 17
Dallas Cowboys (2-4) at Washington Football Team (1-5)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Oh dude that was bad. All the words I left on the table last week about how the Cowboys have the potential to rally around the absence of Dak Prescott and that’s what they serve up instead. They might still figure it out but the vibes were rancid, gotta admit it. Three and out on the first two possessions as they unimaginatively tried to feed Zeke Elliott in both the pass and rush despite him being the focal point of the defensive attention and then after that he fumbled a couple times – weird given he’s never really been that kinda player but it’s undeniable this season – amidst all that Zack Martin went off injured so there goes the last member of that iconic offensive line.
Low key that’s the biggest drama of all for this team. The strength of the team has been its blocking, Dak Prescott is a marvel and Zeke ain’t bad either (not to mention the wide receivers) but the foundation going back to the Tony Romo days has been the O-Line. Well, centre Travis Frederick retired aged 29 in the offseason (he’s had some non-football health issues in the past). Starting tackles Tyron Smith and La’el Collins are already out for the season. New starting centre has Joe Looney has been out with a leg injury. Zack Collins was concussed against Arizona. Connor Williams was the Cowboys’ most experienced lineman in the second half of that game and he’s in his third year. Doesn’t matter who you’ve got at QB, that’s a huge problem. Especially when you’re team is built to expect dominance from that area.
But that defence isn’t getting any better either. The turnovers are not helping, it was 0-0 when Zeke grassed that first one and the Cardies got touchdowns off both free possessions. Andy Dalton threw two picks later on as well. But, like, Kyler Murray was missing passes all over the show, they lost 38-10 and against a better team that would have been 50+. Which is where this kinda thing comes into the equation...
Good. Mike McCarthy has done nothing so far to separate him from the legacy of Jason Garrett. He’s supposed to be a new, updated version of himself since the Packers days and there’s no evidence of that outside maybe a sharpened PR focus.
As for Mike Nolan’s defensive coordinator status... that’s been a trainwreck so far. This team has a very weak secondary but there’s heaps of pass rush. Injuries, sure. They still should be better than this... every week we’re looking at massive miscommunications and shambles at the line of scrimmage. Multiple games this season it’s looked like they’ve simply given up – the Cards game was one as Kenyan Drake skipped through for a 69-yard (noice) TD at the end there. The only reason the Cowboys don’t have the worst rush defence in the league is because the Texans are also abysmal and they haven’t gotten to play against the Saquon-less Giants to pad those stats like Dallas has.
The Cowboys’ expectations had to change when Prescott yet they shouldn’t be this terrible. Their bye week is in week 10 straight after they face the Steelers... McCarthy and Nolan will do well to make it through that bye week with jobs intact if nothing changes. Unless Jerry Jones is gonna do his matesy thing like he did with Garrett for so many years and let mediocrity fester.
Yeah... nah. Risking a loss to prove a point isn’t teaching players how to win. Take it to overtime and show you trust them to execute a couple possessions there, show you believe in them to win rather than taking a blind swing at a two-point conversion. For the record I kinda think Kyle Allen coulda run it in from there once he got outside, Dwayne Haskins woulda, but still this is a baaaad look when you’ve bet the entire game on this single play...
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 3
Green Bay Packers (4-1) at Houston Texans (1-5)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Here’s the thing, Deshaun Watson did this last week...
28/37 COMP | 335 YDS | 4 TD | 0 INT | 11.22 AY/A | 138.9 RATE
... and they still lost. Watto is going to keep them in games, he’s going to bring the best out in players around him, he’s going to have a few more of these excellent performances as the season goes along. But a team that’s conceded at least 28 points against everyone other than the Jaguars so far is going to keep losing more often than not. And this week they get a fired up Aaron Rodgers after his first multi-pick game since week 15 of the 2017 season (excluding last year’s playoffs). The pick six was just the third of his career.
That was the weirdest game. The Packers were 10-0 up and looking flawless then suddenly the entire thing just flipped and they end up losing 38-10, brought on by a rush of turnovers when they hadn’t turned the ball over all season prior. Fair play to Tampa Bay because that defence was monstrous. Todd Bowles kept calling blitzes and they were getting all sorts of pressure on Rodgers... pretty much what they’ve been doing all season really. TBB have 15 sacks and 6 interceptions this season when sending four or more pass rushers which are both NFL-high numbers. Like, this team had four starting linebacks of: Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, Lavonte David & Devin White. They have Ndamukong Suh in the frontline. JPP and Suh are nowhere near the players they once were but amongst that company you could be forgiven for thinking otherwise. Goddamn, what a unit.
Point being that what the Buccs did to the Packers, the Texans are incapable of.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 9
Seattle Seahawks (5-0) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2)
Monday 9.05am NZT
I dunno, I watched the Cardinals absolutely demolish my favourite team and I came away thinking less of them. Kyler Murray missed so many clean passing routes, honestly if it wasn’t for his ability as a runner then I’d be worried for him. But his running... dear God. He’s SO FAST. You can’t even do anything about it, a third down play breaks down and you’re feeling fesity until Murray skips around the edge and suddenly defenders are falling over themselves clueless.
Not really sure that the Cardies are coached in a way that gets the best out of Kyler... also he’s gotta start doing what Deshaun Watson always did which is stop worrying about DeAndre Hopkins if he’s only in single-coverage. Basically if Hopz gets into his stride and he’s isolated on a single dude, just chuck it up and he’ll go get it. Strange advice to be laying down on him when Hopkins already leads the league in receptions and receiving yards.
Also Budda Baker. Great name, great player...
But... not this week. Not against the Seahawks who are coming off a refreshing bye week in the kind of form they’re showing this season.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 7
Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) at Denver Broncos (2-3)
Monday 9.25am NZT
This guy is why it’s boring that the Chiefs added Le’Veon Bell (who seemed to pretty much design his shortlist based on the teams who play the Jets over the next month). They don’t need him, not even sure what he adds to them... and just in case CEH was feeling threatened he went and ripped off 161 rush yards from 26 attempts against the Bills. They ran them out of the game, Mahomes barely had to do anything until late on when he cashed in some cheques. Edwards-Helaire needed that game too, he’d not topped 64 yards in his previous four games and if there’s one issue with him it’s that he doesn’t seem to know where the endzone is. Bit harsh given the first play you’re calling every time you get to the red zone has gotta be a Patrick Mahomes pass play to Travis Kelce. But yeah CEH has 18 runs for 43 yards (2.4 per carry) with only two first downs and zero touchdowns on red zone runs (he has one rushing touchdown all up, a 27 yarder in week one). Maybe that’s the idea with Bell, who knows. Or maybe he’s basically a free rental who was once the best player in his position and you can never have too much talent when you’re trying to win a Super Bowl. That’s probably it.
The Broncos beat the Patriots without scoring a touchdown. That’s all thanks to the mastery of kicker Brandon McManus who at this point is surely one of the best kickers in the sport now. He nailed kicks from 45 yards, 44 yards, 27 yards, 52 yards, 20 yards, and 54 yards... 6/6 on the day with two kicks above fifty yards – the sixth time in his career that he’s had multiple 50+ yarders in the same game which only Justin Tucker can match in all NFL history. Good company to be keeping.
They’re gonna need a score or two to have a chance against the Chiefs, however.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 10
San Francisco 49ers (3-3) at New England Patriots (2-3)
Monday 9.25am NZT
Sorry, I’m tired with a deadline to hit.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 6
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-4)
Monday 9.25am NZT
Here’s one for ya, the Chargers are 1-4 despite having only been involved in single-score games. A cheeky comeback win over the Bengals on Joe Burrow’s debut in week one was a teaser that they’d changed their low-down ways but since then they’ve been dropped in two overtimes, a fourth quarter comeback, and another close one. Last season the Chargers went 3-9 in one-possession games. In 2018 the Chargers went 6-1 in one-possession games, with another close win in the playoffs. A great season but only a blip on the radar. 2017 they were 3-5. 2016 they were 3-9. 2015 they were 3-9 as well. Lucky for them this game shouldn’t be close.
The Jags started with a really nice win over the Colts, then pushed the Titans close a week later. Since then they’ve lost to the Dolphins, Bengals, Texans, and Lions. All in a row. Three of them by 16+ points. And those aren’t even good teams... the Jags are the team you wanna play to Get Right when you’ve been struggling. Well, them and the Jets. And anyone from the NFC East.
Gardner Minshew had his worst game of 2020 against the Lions but I don’t think you can put much blame on him here. His brilliant first game, three scores from 19/20 completion, was always unrepeatable but he’s done fine even since he’s regressed. There’s just not a lot of talent or experience on this team... another good example of how week one overreactions are the most misleading takes in this sport. The Jags had a great win and suddenly people assume they’re no longer tanking or in rebuild mode.
Minshew Weeks 1-2: 75.4% COMP | 256 Y/Gm | 6 TD | 2 INT | 8.34 AY/A | 115.7 RATE
Minshew Weeks 3-6: 64.6% COMP | 292 Y/Gm | 5 TD | 3 INT | 6.49 AY/ A | 86.1 RATE
The wildest thing about the Jags this season: they’ve used a different kicker in every game. Josh Lambo is their guy but he’s been dealing with injuries since week two. Brandon Wright came in off the practice squad but he also got injured. So they signed Stephen Hauschka and Aldrick Ross and incredibly they were both injured too. Hence they played last week with a bloke called Jon Brown who had never even attempted a field goal before in a competitive game. Not in his entire life. He began college as a soccer player then joined the grid-iron team but didn’t kick, only held. He’d nailed a few in preseason for the Bengals in the past so there’s that, at least. Brown did alright. He pinged a 31 yarder with his first attempt though he missed his second crack. This level of injury in a single position feels like it must be some kind of record... but to be fair it’s not that hard to find good kickers.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-2)
Monday 1.20pm NZT
There’s a worry here this game won’t happen. Betting lines got suspended on Thursday NZT when the entire Raiders offensive line had to go home from training under the coronavirus protocols. These things move quickly so it might already be resolved one way or another by the time you read this but I’d suggest that it would take a lot to have a nationally televised primetime game suspended... no matter what the NFL says about player welfare coming first it doesn’t or the season wouldn’t be happening and they would’ve dealt with concussion issues way earlier and there’d be better protocols regarding pain killer medicine (like the non-addictive herbal remedy that’s been legalised in several states, for example) and Thursday night football wouldn’t exist and oh about a hundred other things too. But there is a chance it gets postponed, you never know.
The Buccaneers did some very rude things to Aaron Rodgers last week. Already got into a lot of that in the breakdown of the Packers game so no need to repeat myself. They had him running for his life having utterly dominated the league until that point... it’s a scary thought. But I also have come to really appreciate what the Raiders are doing on offence in particular, and fair play to Jon Gruden because he hasn’t always looked capable of this but it seems like he’s finally learned what a modern offence looks like in 2020 and they’re doing it. Really hope this game does proceed because it should be a banger.
Ooh wait, hot off the press just before publishing time…
So that at least covers that possibility then.
Wildcard’s Pick: Buccs by 2
Chicago Bears (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (4-2)
Tuesday 1.15pm NZT
The Chicago Bears are 5-1. They could go win-loss-win-loss-etc the rest of the way and still end up at 10-6 and that’s a better than decent chance of making the playoffs from there. And yet they’re still out there mad at folks for doubting them even as they’ve whipped up one of the best records in the league through six weeks.
The Case for Da Bears Being A Fluke:
Their five wins have come against teams with a combined 11-18 record (37.9% winning rate)
Their points for and against is 128-116, barely above evens despite all those wins
They’ve already benched a quarterback with the offence spluttering
The Case For Da Bears Being For Real:
Their secondary is incredible, keeping oppo QBs to a league-worst 57.1% completion with a league-low mere four touchdown passes allowed
Likewise their redzone defence has allowed eight touchdowns on 22 trips, a 36.4% conversion rate which is also the best in the league – keeping the Panthers to field goals was what won them that game last week – and they have the third-best rate of conversion on third down defence
Khalil Mack already has 4.5 sacks and the unit overall is tenth in sacks despite not even hardly blitzing guys
So... one of those cases rests largely on their offensive woes and the strength of schedule to come. The other rests on their supremely talented and well-coached defence. Generally in 2020 it’s the offence that determines how far you go so Nick Foles better start turning the heat up... it’s not like they have much of a rush game to fall back on either with Tarik Cohen on IR and David Montgomery only chipping them off at 3.7 yards per carry.
We should get a better idea of where the Bears are really at in this game and the next two (Saints & Titans)... and honestly I’ve got a good feeling about them. Absolutely adore that defence and being able to find a way to win ugly does genuinely matter in this league. I’m buying it. (Fully expect to have to back that up in a week’s time though, as always).
Wildcard’s Pick: Bears by 3
BYE: Indianapolis Colts (4-2), Miami Dolphins (3-3), Minnesota Vikings (1-5) & Baltimore Ravens (5-1)
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