The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 6
Last Week: 8-6
Season: 52-24-1
Houston Texans (1-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-0)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Four undefeated teams remain after five weeks. The Seahawks, the Packers, the Steelers... and the Tennessee Titans, who thoroughly dispatched of the previously undefeated Buffalo Bills in that delayed Tuesday night game. So much for all the coronavirus panic, aye? The Titans had a big old outbreak within their group and couldn’t train as a team all week (although they kinda cheated that rule to be fair)... and then they dropped the Bills like that. Who even needs training? Waste of bloody time.
The Titans feel like an old fashioned kinda team who should be at their best in a game like that Bills one where they can get a solid lead early on and then control the game on the ground from there on. But prior to that Bills game their three wins had come by a combined six points against three teams whose current combined record is 3-11. A win is a win however you get it but this was a very different win to those ones. Which... I think the matchup had to be a large part of it. The Bills tried to blitz Ryan Tannehill into mistakes and instead he threw three scores all against those blitzes, getting good protection and with receivers making plays even with Corey Davis out. Just the second time in franchise history they’ve been 4-0 (they started 10-0 in 2008).
It was the defence that impressed the most through. Tannehill has always been an excellent and reliable quarterback given the right circumstances and he delivered nicely with the platform he was given here. It’s the way that Tenny make Josh Allen look as bad as anyone has this season that was the winning of this game, forcing wild throws and getting a couple Malcolm Butler interceptions. One thing you notice about Allen is that he throws the ball so hard that when he’s off by even a small margin it makes it ruthlessly tough for his receivers to adjust and make catches. Anyway, Tennessee did awesome at moving Allen around, even if they only sacked him once and hit him three times, and that secondary kept dudes from getting very open. This is a very well balanced Titans team. Mad respect.
And as for Derrick Henry: wow...
Hey wait, I just realised there’s no Thursday night football this week? Turns out that’s thanks to the fact that the NFL is scrambling to avoid a sack with the covid postponements all over the show and in shuffling one or two games in a fully scheduled season you’ve then got this complicated domino effect to balance everything out. The extended break for the Titans didn’t seem to do them any harm last game but if you’re one of the henchmen for the NFL you really don’t wanna have to be living out that Wynona Ryder algebra meme in real life like this too often...
Shout outs to Romeo Crennel. At 73 years old he’s the oldest current head coach (albeit an interim) in the NFL and he had that Texans team looking like they’d got a weight off their shoulders with a 30-14 win over Jacksonville, their first W of the year. Other than two interceptions Deshaun Watson was supreme while Brandin Cooks hauled in 161 yards with a score in his best game for... ever? (since his early New Orleans days at least), and for the first time all season they looked like they had a clue how to get stops against the run game. Chuck in four sacks and a couple lost fumbles and that’s much more like it from Houston.
But really not liking this matchup for them. Second most rush yardage allowed up against the NFL’s strongest running back in Derrick Henry and that’s not really something you wanna encourage.
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 8
Cincinnati Bengals (1-3-1) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Watching the Colts struggle to defeat against the Browns last week and I had the confusing thought that Philip Rivers is both the reason why the Colts are as good as they are and also the reason why they aren’t as good as they should be. Not sure I can really explain that any better. He was crap against the Browns however and that’s reeeeeally not what they wanna see when they’ve basically brought him in to take them over the top. Still, that defence should hold the fort against Cincy. Pleasantly surprised how far along some of the young dudes on that Bengals offence are but even without Darius Leonard this Colts D has been scary. And Rivers will probably torch a bad defence when there’s no real pressure on him.
Now we pause in recognition of Colts kicker Rodrigo Blankenship and his Edgar Davids glasses. If you don’t know Edgar Davids... damn, man, just google him. Not gonna babysit you here if you don’t know how the internet works. Anyway Blankenship is a rookie who won the kicking contest in training camp and has dished up 15 field goals in five games already. Kicking at 88% (although no attempts beyond 50 yards yet). Chuck in 11 extra points and he’s scored 56 points alone. Highest scoring player in the NFL after week five, baby.
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 9
Atlanta Falcons (0-5) at Minnesota Vikings (1-4)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Later bro.
Interesting fact: since blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl the Falcons have a 24-29 record (which drops to 14-23 in the last two and half seasons) with a negative points differential despite having the same quarterback still putting up top numbers, the same elite wide receiver, and the same head coach. That feels like something that shouldn’t happen.
I will say one good thing about the Falcons though... Todd Gurley has five rushing scores in five games and the 121 yards he had (8.6 per carry) against the Panthers last week are the most he’s had in a game since week 12 of the 2018 season. Not sure he’ll ever be the player he was in 2017 again but one thing about his game is no matter the injuries he’s always been able to get into the endzone and he’s keeping that trend up in ATL.
As for the Vikings, the poor bastards they were THIS CLOSE to being 2-3 right now...
That’s just incredible from Wilson and Metcalf. Those Seahawks are assassins.
Seems like the Vikings are doing that thing where they get progressively better after a slow start. They’ve had some horrid moments and that defensive unit is nowhere near what it once was however they had another 200+ rush yard day against Seattle and if Kirk Cousins could cut out the turnovers and the sacks then they’d be okay. 8-8 sort of okay, not winning playoff games okay. Quick clarification there. But yeah dunno if that’s gonna happen. Should pretty much be a college game here with huge offensive numbers and no sign of any defence whatsoever and those games usually end with the Falcons losing.
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 7
Denver Broncos (1-3) at New England Patriots (2-2)
Monday 6.00am NZT
This game was supposed to happen last week, I should just rehash what I wrote then. Nah best not be cynical about it.
Umm... well Cam Newton is now officially off the Covid-19/Injured Reserve list so he should be playing here. Stephon Gilmore oughta be close. That’s enough evidence to make my mind up. Who plays quarterback for the Broncos these day? I can’t remember. Oh it seems Drew Lock’s a chance to return from injury for this one... that’s nice. Good for him.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 4 if Lock plays, Patriots by 14 if he doesn’t
Washington Football Team (1-4) at New York Giants (0-5)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Yikes. When you’re sharing records with defunct franchises then you’re in trouble.
Strange vibes from this Washington team. On the one hand their lack of a name is an ongoing reflection of a poisonous corporate culture that’s infected this team for at least a decade but all the bad news and the horror stories that came out about that in the offseason are contrasted by some really awesome yarns since the season began. The 17-point comeback in the first game. Ron Rivera inspiring as he battles cancer. And now the remarkable return of Alex Smith...
But like... sports don’t always pause for the narratives and no sooner was Smithy back in action than he was trying to fend off Aaron Donald running straight at him with minimal protection. Hey, gotta get those early hits out of the way to prove you can take them. You hear sportsfolk coming back from long injuries always say things like that. But perhaps Smith coulda done without being sacked six times in barely more than one half of football.
He’ll get more room to breathe against the New York Giants this weekend – unless Kyle Allen is cleared to play in which case he’ll start, according to Riverboat Ron – however this all just goes to reinforce that no matter how nice the story may be... the Washington Football Team remain extremely compromised in the talent department.
So do the Giants but fair play to them because they’ve been competitive the last couple games. They did much better against the Rams than the WFT managed and they finally clicked with a few offensive things against Dallas, only losing to a late field goal. Now... the Dallas defence is basically a free sample convention at this point of time but the G-Men were better than 50% on third down, able to sustain a few drives and put points on the board, with Darius Slayton in particular stepping up. I will continue to make fun of Joe Judge’s old timey ways but he does have them playing hard and that genuinely does make a difference in a sport where tactically targetting opposition weak spots is so common.
Whatever happens at least the NFC East will be guaranteed a win. Right now the Cowboys are in first place with a 2-3 record. The Eagles are next at 1-3-1 and then it’s these two teams. Every team has a losing record and we’re five weeks into the season. Entering last week the only thing keeping this from being tied for the worst ever division after four weeks was that Philly tied game as the combined 3-12-1 record narrowly edged the 1984 AFC Central’s 3-13 start. But there’s a run of divisional games now which should balance some of that out even if this remains a largely terrible division. The LA Rams are responsible for four of those losses alone.
Wildcard’s Pick: Giants by 6
Baltimore Ravens (4-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-3-1)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by lots
Cleveland Browns (4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-0)
Monday 6.00am NZT
I really like those cartoon avatar things that they have for players on the Fox broadcast this season. They actually debuted it for the Super Bowl but yeah we don’t get that broadcast on kiwi tellies so whatevs. It’s cool, it’s sleek, it’s pretty modern... big fan over here but I’ll admit it has had me thinking about the logistics of them all. Like, do they do the boring thing and do them by CGI? Or have they employed a legit artist to draw them up? And also where do they draw the line with who they cartoonify because all the starting quarterbacks and running backs have them, sure, yet every now and then a young fella steps up with a touchdown and misses out.
In fact every now and then a young fella steps up with FOUR touchdowns and still doesn’t have a cartoon avatar. Hopefully the Fox graphics team have been hard at work drawing Chase Claypool because maaaaaate what a performance. The second round pick rookie (from Canada!) had an 84 yard score in week two... a few weeks later he has three receiving scores and a rush TD in the same game. Four games into his NFL career and he’s already making a name for himself.
Tell ya what, between Chase Claypool and CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson... this is one hell of a rookie wide receiver group. Not to mention folks like Henry Ruggs (Las Vegas), Laviska Shenault Jr (Jacksonville), Jerry Jeudy (Denver), and Tee Higgins (Cincinnati). Absolutely stacked.
Put simply, this should be a brilliant game. Two division rivals who have been playing superb all season, cannot wait to see how it goes. The Browns opened things up in the win over Indy last week with Baker Mayfield topping 220 passing yards for the first time this season... albeit at a bad completion rate (56.7%) and with his first multi-interception game. Very much a work in progress yet they continue to grind out yards on the ground and that defence... yeah Myles Garrett is a bit of a freak. Plus they have 12 turnovers on defence, the most in the NFL.
Meanwhile Pittsburgh finally snapped a run of 23 games without scoring more than 28 points and Ben Roethlisberger, incredibly, is now 4-0 for the first time in his career. They have one of the best rush defences out there which is an instant clash of strengths against the Browns and Roethsliberger, coming back off elbow surgery, has a passer rating of 110.4 thru four games. This’ll be a cracker.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 3
Chicago Bears (4-1) at Carolina Panthers (3-2)
Monday 6.00am NZT
The Panthers are 3-0 since Christian McCaffrey got injured. Clearly they’re not ‘better without him’ but maybe there is a point to be made about being a better team when you don’t give one single running back the highest percentage of touches of any non-QB in the league? McCaffrey had 41 rushes and nine targets (seven catches) in less than two games. Mike Davis’ last two games he’s had 16 rushes at better than five yards per attempt, also picking up those short completions too, and if anything the rush game has been better with that extra variety. Teddy Bridgewater is never gonna be a big bomber of a thrower but he’s completed at +70% the last three games with 5 TDs and only one interception. Spreading things out and bringing some balance. It’s 2020, man. You can’t have a running back dictating everything - even one as good as CMC.
There’s also a point to be made that the two teams they lost to – the Raiders & Buccaneers – have proved to be quite good with a combined record of 6-4 while the three teams they’ve beaten - the Chargers, Cardinals & Falcons – have a combined record of 4-11... and three of those wins are from the Cardinals, two of which were against Washington & the Jets. The Bears are inexplicable but they’re 4-1 and that sounds like the type of team that’ll do what needs doing.
Important factor for the Bears: after a slow start, Allen Robinson has 314 yards with two scores from 27 catches in the last three games. A streak which seems to coincide with Nick Foles taking over so there ya go.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bears by 3
Detroit Lions (1-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 6
New York Jets (0-5) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)
Monday 9.05am NZT
Absolutely no surprises there as Le’Veon Bell’s been released by the Jets. All signs pointed towards this outcome as the fella struggled like mad in the Big Apple, looking a shadow of his former self and adding up to one of the worse free agency signings we’ve seen in recent years. He sat out the entire 2018 season in preparation for that free agency and the Jets gave him the big bucks only for him to be a complete and utter non-factor for a year and a quarter and now they couldn’t even manage to trade him... the Jets still owe him six milllion bucks for this season, dammit.
Le’Veon Bell for PIT: 62 GM | 35 TD | 4.3 Y/A | 86.1 Y/G | 81 LNG
Le’Veon Bell for NYJ: 17 GM | 3 TD | 3.3 Y/A | 50.8 Y/G | 19 LNG
He never had a 100 yard rushing game for the Jets.
But before you start tweeting out WASHED... remember that this deal was flawed from day one. The Jets don’t have an offensive line capable of taking care of business and worse than that they don’t have a stable quarterback which means clogged lines of scrimmages meeting Bell at every rush. It starts with the front office, like you don’t start building a team with a running back unless you’ve got them on a rookie scale. Running backs don’t win you games in 2020.
He was doomed from day one, a pretty sad tale really since he took a year of his prime out to prepare to sign for the biggest offer in one of the worst situation. But that six million bucks... that takes him off the hook for having to worry about money at all for his next deal. He could sign for the minimum... hell he might already have by the time you read this. Lots of teams who could use the potential upside he might offer with no real risk involved since the NY Jets are copping it all. Best case scenario... he signs with Miami and plays against the Jets this week, that’d be incredible. (Update... the Dolphins and Bills were on the list but sounds like he’s signing with the Chiefs... as you would – not sure that’s an ideal fit but okay).
Gotta admit as well that the Dolphins are definitely outperforming my expectations. They didn’t only beat the Niners last week, they beat them bad enough that Jimmy Garoppolo got benched. Sort of. He was clearly playing through injury and that was a weakened Niners team to begin with but the Fins are doing some cool things. Maybe most significant is that they’re actually protecting their quarterback. Look at what Ryan Tannehill is doing now behind a line that keeps him upright, it makes an enormous difference. After giving up 58 sacks last season the Dolphins are on pace to only allow 25.5 this time and that’s an astounding improvement. Some young dudes on that line stepping up too. And thanks to this game being moved up in the schedule shuffle they’re now a chance of being 3-3 in a few days’ time.
Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 10
Green Bay Packers (4-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)
Monday 9.25am NZT
He thought he had another down! Ha! Tommy Terrific and he can’t even count to four! What a fraud, what a sham! He’s nothing without Bill Belichick to hold his hand... easy to see who the real source of success was all those years! Pathetic! Tom Brady, time to retire old man, you’re getting senile!
Nah he just made a mistake, no dramas. The bigger issue is that the Buccs (I’ve noticed Americans always spell it ‘Bucs’ but that looks stupid to me and it’s a nickname so I can and will spell it however I want and I want to spell it Buccs... just for the record)... where was I? Oh yeah the bigger issue was that the Buccs couldn’t stop Nick Foles when it mattered. Close losses don’t really change things though, sometimes you lose a close game – doesn’t make you a bad team. The Bears have been winning close ones all season.
And shout out to Tommy for having a sense of humour... and an assistant proficient with photoshop...
A crazy stat here: Tom Brady teams were docked 100 penalty yards in a game only three times in 16 years with the Patriots... it’s happened twice in his first five games with the Buccs. Through five weeks the Patriots have the least penalised offence in 2020 while the Buccs are tied worst.
The Packers are coming off a bye week and they have the second most yards of offence and the most total points per game. They’re the only team without a turnover yet. They’re gulping up a frightening 6.8 yards per play. Like, that’s the average for them. They score on 64.1% of their possessions and only four other teams even score on half of their possies (Las Vegas, Miami, Tennessee & Kansas City... shout out to LVR who are on a bye this week so I don’t get a real chance to talk about how surprisingly efficient they’re proving). Rate what the Buccs are capable of but they’re not quite firing on all cylinders yet and it doesn’t look like anyone’s beating the Packers unless they can hang in a shootout.
Speaking of efficiency... doing some research here I stumbled on this 148 page PDF document full of stats and facts in preview of this game. A single game and 148 pages of data... there are some things that the NFL does abysmally but oh my god there are other things where not a sports league on the planet can even dream of competing with. I’m in awe thinking of the Packers’ employee who just spent the last couple days whipping that bad boy up and getting paid for it.
Curiously Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have only played each other twice before. Each with a win.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 7
Los Angeles Rams (4-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-3)
Monday 1.20pm NZT
Hmm, it seems we’ve got a quarterback drama at the Niners. Jimmy Garoppolo came back from that sore ankle last week and was pretty bad. Threw a couple picks. 7/17 for 77 yards. Then he got benched. Mike Shanahan is a clever dude who gets the best out of his QBs and he’s also a guy who says the right things in the media to play these yarns down and maybe that’s being held against him right now, dunno. My feeling? Jimmy G was playing hurt and it affected him. He came back too early. He’s had another week to recover for this one and he should be alright. Is he playing to his contract value? Nah not really. Is he in danger of getting benched for real? Everyone is in danger of losing their jobs at the drop of a dime in the NFL but Garoppolo was a quarter away from winning a Super Bowl last season. He’d have to be pretty terrible for a lot longer than this for it to be a drama. Let’s not forget all the injuries around him right now, he’s far from the only person who has missed time or is playing hurt.
Slight problem though... he’s up against this guy this week...
Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 11
Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) at Buffalo Bills (4-1)
Tuesday 10.00am NZT
Here’s your Thursday Night NFL game... taking place on a Monday evening instead. Tuesday morning in Aotearoa times. Don’t hate that. Don’t hate that at all, especially when it’s a pretty sharp game to have a peek at too. A pair of very well coached team, with high-powered offences (that’s a cliche, sorry... I’ll add it to the list I’ve started of NFL-specific cliches), yet both are also coming off their first defeats of the season.
The Chiefs were upset by the Raiders to break a streak of 13 wins in a row and more than 300 days since their last defeat. What’s more is that it was a divisional loss too by a team that had previously won 28 of its last 30 divisional games. Doesn’t cast the Chiefs under any doubt whatsoever, they’re still an excellent team and the favourites to do back to back in the Super Bowl, but you can bet your arse that every other coaching staff will be scouring that video for cracks in the armour.
Meanwhile the Bills were dropped by the coronavirus-infested Titans as for the first time that offence was slowed down and there really were some cracks in that armour because of it. Josh Allen was in MVP-worthy form for the first four weeks but that doesn’t put him in Patrick Mahomes territory. Four weeks is a streak. Mahomes has done that over a full season and has won a championship. Allen looked terrible for large stretches of his career which Mahomes has never done. Both have mistakes in their game, even Mahomes who is so good that he seems to have no concept of impossibility and thus he will force the ball into passes that very few other quarterbacks would have the leash to be able to try. Sometimes that gets ya picked, so it goes. More than worth the trade-off for when he hits those though.
So yeah I reckon the Bills’ defeat was a bit more telling of where they really are. But having said that, the Chiefs defence is the unit that needs to step it up after getting Jon Gruden-ed. I’m gonna do my usual thing and lean on the legacy but very, very much anticipating this bad boy.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 6
Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
Tuesday 1.15pm NZT
And now we come to this. People have made the point of how calmly Dak Prescott seemed to handle that horrible injury, pointing gently to an ankle that was facing in the wrong direction. Well, I had the same reaction staring at my laptop screen of instant recognition that something terrible had happened it wasn’t so much shock as it was resignation. His incredible season, on pace for records all over the show, was done in an instant like that. As a Cowboys fan I felt an immediate and ironic clarity of all the problems that piece of awful luck would lead to.
For one it’s a season-ender and a long recovery for one of the best dudes in the NFL, both on and off the field. That alone is heart-breaking. Dak Prescott has been through some genuine trauma this year and he didn’t deserve this, not to mention how well he was playing. Plus he was playing on the franchise tag this season and while I’ve got no doubt he stays a Dallas Cowboy – it’d be franchise sabotage not to, just look at the reaction from his teammates to see how beloved he is there, how much of a leader he is – this wreaks havoc with his financial bottom line... really hope for his sake that he’s back by training camps to prove his fitness. It’s an injury that shouldn’t have a lingering effect at least.
Then there’s the competitive crisis where the Cowboys, who have been entirely held up by Dak and his WRs so far, now have to revert to a backup quarterback (albeit an overqualified one in Andy Dalton) the rest of the way and therefore that injured O-Line, Ezekiel Elliott’s run game, and especially that unbalanced defence no longer have their bail out option. Tyron Smith and La’el Collins are both out for the duration. Travis Frederick retired in the offseason. Zeke doesn’t have his three best blockers and Andy Dalton, respect to him but let’s be honest, is not gonna be shown the same respect by opposition rushers. Zeke can’t save this team alone. Things just got twice as hard for him. And the less said about that bloody defence the better.
Backup quarterbacks don’t tend to get much done in Dallas. Since Tony Romo’s first career start the Cowboys are 10-23 with anyone other than Romo or Prescott starting. Then again, that list of backups to start for Dallas in that time (since 2006) reads: Jon Kitna, Matt Cassel, Drew Bledsoe, Brandon Weeden, Kellen Moore, Brad Johnson, Kyle Orton & Stephen McGee. Not exactly the finest selection you could imagine. Andy Dalton is better than any of them bar Bledsoe but Bledsoe had been the starter until Romo outplayed him so he barely even counts... and even then that was his last year before retiring and he was not good.
Nonetheless I’m not giving up just yet. No need to when Andy Dalton is more than good enough to win the pathetic NFC East even if he does so with a 7-9 record they’ll still host a playoff game. That playoff game will be scary if nothing else changes but the team rallied for Dak against the Giants and I have a feeling that without that safety blanket of his second half comebacks the rest of them might finally get the wake-up call that they need. Take it upon themselves to make some plays. The defence will get better when the turnover rates go down as well, they’ve been put in a tough position along with being so sloppy... much of which seems to be miscommunication that I’d hope the coaches are working very hard upon. Very tempted to pick the Cowboys in a ferocious emotional triumph... but DeAndre Hopkins is terrifying my dreams at the moment so I’ll play it safe.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cards by 2
BYE: Seattle Seahawks (5-0), Los Angeles Chargers (1-4), New Orleans Saints (3-2) & Las Vegas Raiders (3-2)
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