The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 5
Last Week: 10-5
Season: 44-18-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Chicago Bears (3-1)
Friday 12.20pm NZT
Hey get a load of this one, it’s a rematch between Super Bowl LII (that’s 52 for those of you who didn’t pay attention in school) quarterbacks... except that neither of the two teams are involved. Tom Brady is now a Buccaneer, Nick Foles is the newly minted starter for the Chicago Bears. Which means that even if we get a Philly Special then it won’t be a Philly Special.
On the surface this feels like a simple Buccs win. The Bears sorta struggled their way to three wins and that luck ran dry as the Colts basically shut down their offence, the Bears not scoring until after the two minute warning of the fourth quarter, and that’s about what they mean when they say ‘reverting to the mean’. 269 yards of total offence for the Bears.
Ah but having said that we’re talking about a Buccs team who don’t have Chris Godwin, who don’t have OJ Howard, who might not have Leonard Fournette. And I kinda like what the Bears do beyond their main dudes... they don’t fumble, they make a lot of tackles, they keep games close on defence, they don’t make enough big plays on both sides of the ball but they play pretty hard. I think that’s me laying the platform to say ‘well, I did say...’ if this pick goes wrong because I’m still leaning on the Buccaneers on account of... they’re just better. But the short turnaround and everything is always a wonky one. With the Buccaneers rush defence it’s gonna put the pressure on that fella Foles and I dunno those old Super Bowl memories still confuse me. The idea that Nick Foles possesses a Super Bowl MVP award and that it was completely deserved remains utterly mental.
Wildcard’s Pick: Buccaneers by 3
Carolina Panthers (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (0-4)
Monday 6.00am NZT
We’re now at the end of the first quarter of the game that is this season. Four games out of 16 for the majority of the teams. A quarter of the way through... and the Falcons still don’t have a win. I mean, they had the Packers last week with Aaron Rodgers playing as well as he’s playing and you can’t really blame them individually for that, which is why Dan Quinn still has a job most likely. The Panthers have won two straight, rallying despite the injury for Christian McCaffrey, with Teddy Bridgewater looking as comfortable as he has yet in a Panthers jersey yet last week against the Cards, but yeah this is an absolutely must-win game for the Falcons.
To start with, they could try not conceding 30+ points for the first time this season.
Lessons From The First Quarter of the 2020 NFL Season:
Josh Allen is good now and the Bills are a problem
Trading DeAndre Hopkins away is a bad idea
Offensive numbers are through the damn roof
Russell Wilson + Aaron Rodgers
Injuries and coronavirus are going to keep everyone on their heels
Cleveland can run
New York is broken
The Lions, Cowboys & Falcons never change
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 6
Buffalo Bills (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (3-0)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Last week I talked a bit about how Josh Allen has surged into this whole new level of play that nobody really saw coming, definitely not when he was a rookie and could hardly hit a barn door with that arm of his. He was fantastic again versus the Raiders. Through four games he’s thrown 1326 yards with 12 scores and only 1 pick. There are still some dumb plays in there every now and then which he’s probably never going to entirely iron out but damn you’d take that trade-off every day of the week for all the positive things he’s serving up.
But the Bills aren’t only winning games because of their quarterback. They’re winning games despite him either (granted he’s always had a game-winning drive in him from day one – that used to be an inexplicable thing and now apparently it ain’t any more), yet you watch them play like they did against Las Vegas and this is just such a beautifully coached team. It’s most notable on offence where you look at the routes that those guys run, and how much movement they throw at defensive coverages forcing them to continually adjust on the fly, and it’s a work of art. Even on defence though, you still see a team who are only middling in most of the overall stats but they do the little things so well to compensate. One of the lowest average depth of passes against them. In no small part thanks to a high blitz rate forcing that ball out early.
This isn’t a superstar team. Steffon Diggs has been immense but not sure a lot of other teams would’ve taken him on as a number one receiver dude (they should have, just look at him go). But it’s a team that does so many things well, all the one-percenters. It’s genuinely enjoyable to watch a team this efficient.
As for the Titans...
That doesn’t feel like a good thing. This organisation has had 23 positive covid tests and they had to postpone their game a week ago... during which time they held an illegal workout despite the known outbreaks. You’ve gotta think this game against the Bills is in doubt as well if they can’t stamp this sucker out but by the defiant sounds of things from the team I don’t even trust that they will. Not liking the vibes here. Not at all. Bad trip alert.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 6
Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Monday 6.00am NZT
The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 to start the season, just as they were 4-0 to start last season, and were 4-0 to start the season before that... and 4-0 the one before that too. The first team in NFL history to go 4-0 to start four consecutive seasons. They were actually 5-0 in two of those previous three seasons and it’s the Super Bowl year that blew it for them having the chance to make it 4x 5-0 this week. Ah well, so it goes. They’re on a 13 game winning streak by the way.
Those previous three seasons ended up like this...
2017 – 10-6, losing in the wildcard playoffs
2018 – 12-4, losing in the AFC Championship game
2019 – 12-4, winning the Super Bowl
I don’t reckon there’s any doubt that the Chiefs are the team to beat right now. They have not dropped their standards at all since winning the Super Bowl, in fact they might have even improved with Clyde Edwards-Helaire at RB and a few of the defensive additions they made. The week before last they torched Baltimore and Lamar Jackson called the Chiefs their kryptonite. Well, the Chiefs’ own kryptonite is the New England Patriots who seem to be able to limit the Chiefs in ways that no other team can and we saw plenty of that... except Mahomes avoided making any silly mistakes and then his defence got the job done with 14 points off turnovers in a 16-point win. Mighta been a different story with Cam Newton, in fact it definitely would have been... but seeing that defence making plays must have AFC coaching staffs throwing playbooks over their shoulders and storming out of video sessions.
I will say one thing about the Raiders: Darren Waller is very good. You can tell he’s very good because he’s a tight end averaging nine catches per game if you take out the one game against the Patriots where he only had two for 9 yards and if the only game where you get shut down is against the Pats then that’s because the Pats decided to shut you down because they respect you. Which means they’re going to mash you. It’s insane how the Patriots seem to be so much better at all this than anyone else.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 10
Arizona Cardinals (2-2) at New York Jets (0-4)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Cardies by 8
Philadelphia Eagles (1-2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)
Monday 6.00am NZT
The first place Philadelphia Eagles! What an absolute shambles.
I mean... yeah, pretty much.
Not actually sure the Eagles were any better against the Niners, they just came up against a team ravaged by injuries, who had smoked the two New York teams before this but coughed up costly turnovers (via a backup quarterback) in this one and that tends to be a tricky thing to overcome in this sport. Philly did well to get pressure on Nick Mullens, they definitely took advantage of a shaky offensive line... and even then the third-string QB came in and nearly made things squeaky at the end.
Unfortunately their next two games are against these Steelers and then the Ravens. 6-1 combined record, get that into ya. Not convinced you’ll see similar turnover disparities in those ones.
Hey cool story here... Jordan Mailata got his first NFL start last week in that Niners game. Mailata is an Aussie fella coming out of the South Sydney Rabbitohs U20s team where he was a blockbusting prop (he’s 6’8 and 157kgs these days and woulda been pretty huge even then) but tape of his exploits found their way to the USA where gridiron scouts invested in him through the International Pathway Program and next thing he’s a seventh round pick despite never having actually played before. Mailata spent most of the last two years out injured and still learning... but he’s been active this year and with Jason Peters going to the IR he was promoted to start in week four. From a blockbusting prop to a blocking left tackle. That was the first game he’s ever started in this spot at any level.
Doug Pederson: “He's still a work in progress; he's still like a ball of clay that we're shaping and molding and making into a left tackle... I thought there were some really good things [Sunday] by him. He's a big man, obviously; he's strong. And when he is one hundred percent accurate on what he's doing on that particular play, it's hard for defenders to get around him, whether it's a pass block or a run block, when he's right.”
He bollocksed up a third & 1 play with a false start that doomed the drive but he’s already quite good in the pass protection, yet to allow a sack in 82 snaps. Rush blocking seems to be the one where his skill set is yet to thrive. Gotta remember with a late convert like this though, the rate of development is way faster than a regular offensive lineman who has been doing this since his school days. Those fellas fail at this level, it’s because they’re not good enough. With someone like Mailata his mistakes have tended to be correctable things due to inexperience. But don’t let me explain it to you...
The Steelers didn’t need the week off last week like, say, the Eagles might have with all their injuries... but thanks to the Titans and their leaky covid borders they got one anyway. Opponents are averaging a league-worst 2.7 yards per rush against this Steelers defence and the Eagles have relied these last two weeks a fair bit on Carson Wentz being able to get free and dash when plays break down/never develop (as they tend to do when most of you receivers are out injured). Dunno if those stats really reflect quarterback rushes but if that outlet is gone then this’ll get ugly. Feels like we’re due a big Ju-Ju Smith Schuster game too.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 10
Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Washington Football Team (1-3)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Eh. There’s been some chat about him getting a rough deal, with the rubbishness around him and the lack of stability on and off the field since he joined this so-called organisation (and long before). All of that is true and Dwayne Haskins has talent which is worth persevering with be it for Washington or elsewhere. But he’s also not playing fantastic and while sure you can make the comparison to Daniel Jones or Sam Darnold not having been dropped... every situation is different. Haskins can’t complain. If anything he’s being protected by this move. Nobody is safe on a bad team. This is the way it goes and it ain’t like he won’t get another chance down the line.
The Rams have looked really good so far. Jared Goff is playing at a higher level than he ever did last season, they’re going with a running back committee thing which is the exact opposite of having Todd Gurley looking like he belongs in a wheelchair while hoovering up salary cap space and that seems to be working nicely, plus also: Aaron Donald. Yeah that helps too. Although I also did just realise that when this game is over the Rams will have completed the NFC East quadrilogy. Beat the Cowboys by 3, beat the Eagles by 18, beat the Giants by 8 and next up I’ve got them beating Washington by... let’s say 14 points, that’ll do. Meanwhile in the middle of that they lost to the Buffalo Bills. Not really sure what to make of all that.
Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 14 was what I decided on
Cincinnati Bengals (1-2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Joe Burrow is very good. He’ll win a lot more games. He’s kept the Bengals in basically every game so far despite the odds, in fact he just became the first rookie in history to throw for 300+ yards in three consecutive games. But honestly this one could be a massacre... there’s just no way that the Bengals can contain Lamar Jackson and the rest of them. Their rush defence is not good and it’ll probably all spiral out of control from there like a broken frisbee tumbling off the edge of a cliff towards the choppy ocean seas crashing over jagged rocks under the flickering glimmer of the lighthouse beam. Sort of like how that metaphor spiralled out of control too. You see, it was a metaphor about the metaphor itself and not the content of the metaphor, the concept of the metaphor. Very deep shit, mate.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 17
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Houston Texans (0-4)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Aaaaand there he goes. The first head coach firing of the 2020 season and it’s Bill O’Brien who beats the buzzer ahead of a somewhat heavy crew of fellas on the brink. Adam Gase still has a job. Dan Quinn still has a job. Matt Patricia still has a job. But Bill O’Brien, the poor bastard, he’s already been sacked twice. Once as the team’s head coach and then also once as the team’s general manager... which is such a stupid double-up that teams do - just because you can coach a team doesn’t mean you can manage its roster. Too much power for one person, spread the wealth out and incorporate more voices in a collaborative manner and that’s how you succeed. The HC/GM combo really only works if you’re on that Bill Belichick level and not just another branch on the Belichick tree. As if that wasn’t enough old mate O’Brien was also in charge of play calling duties. Lol.
Bill O’Brien had a good record with the Texans overall, going 52-44 prior to this season with four division titles, but look at the team he had which went 11-5 in 2018 and look at where they are now and they haven’t gotten better... they’ve gotten worse despite their quarterback ascending to heroic levels. Not to mention that they were 24-0 up against the Chiefs last playoffs and lost 51-31. Then they come in and start 0-4 and what are ya gonna do? This team was built to compete and they’re not doing that – thus BO’B becomes the first coach sacked this early in the season for five years.
He leaves the Texans as the only head coach in the team’s history with a winning record and they did legitimately do some excellent things throughout. But always with the feeling that they were underachieving. Deshawn Watson has been a sack machine from day one and still they haven’t figured that out despite putting serious investments into that O-Line... which brings us to O’Brien’s legacy and it’s that latter period as general manager where he traded away Jadaveon Clowney, DeAndre Hopkins, and their 2021 first and second round picks along the way in order to fill out role player positions. Clear example of a bloke thinking he’s smarter than he really is... you don’t trade away transcendent talent to plug the gaps around them, those gap plugger players can be acquired without letting arguably the best WR in the game right now leave the team. Silly fella, now he’s lost his job(s).
Wildcard’s Pick: New coach bounce alert, Texans by 6
Miami Dolphins (1-3) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
Monday 9.05am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Niners by 9
Indianapolis Colts (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (3-1)
Monday 9.25am NZT
Philip Rivers is the weirdest guy.
And now let me introduce you to a bloke called Mo Alie-Cox. He only had one catch last week but it was a touchdown and as injuries cause a bit of havoc for the Colts, MAC has come out of pretty much nowhere to emerge as this playmaking tight end... he has 11 catches for 194 yards and has scored in each of his last two games with Philip Rivers chucking up a passer rating of 126.3 when he targets him. This guy was a college basketball player. He was maybe the third option coming into the season at his position. But fair play to Big Mo, he’s putting up a case.
Okay let’s talk Cleveland Browns. It took them beating the Cowboys before I took them seriously but I’m definitely there now. The thing I love about them is that they’re unapologetically difference... prioritising the rushing game in an era of huge passing and even aside from demolishing Dallas on the run they were already bossing things. We’re only four weeks in and they have almost 100 rush yards more than any other team (818 at a league-best 5.9 Y/A). With a league-leading 8 rushing touchdowns. Nick Chubb is superb but he was hurt against Dallas and Kareem Hunt stepped up. D’Ernest Johnson is their third guy and he’s averaging 7.1 yards per attempt. Baker Mayfield isn’t really a dasher but how about Odell Beckham Jr’s incredible game-clinching 50 yard score last week?
(Horrific defensive awareness/tackling tbf)
That rush-first mentality changes the picture for Baker Mayfield. It lets him off the hook and allows him to just dink it around like he’s very good at. Then you get the odd big play drawn up for Odell and see what happens. Baker was in cruise control against Dallas. You get 300 yards on the ground and you can score 49 points even as your QB only throws for 165 yards himself. After getting blown out in week one by Baltimore the Browns have been able to establish themselves with expected wins over Cincinnati and Washington... but dropping Dallas like that was a statement.
And the main reason for that success is something I haven’t even gotten to yet. Like, fair play to new coach Kevin Stefanski but it’s that offensive line that is the secret to all that they do. Those guys are absolutely balling. Dunno if you’ve seen Wyatt Teller play but oh man that guy is a steamroller...
Cleveland’s offensive line coach? That’d be Bill Callahan, the same bloke who turned Dallas’ offensive line into a superstar crew a few years back.
Wildcard’s Pick: Having said all that... Colts by 4
New York Giants (0-4) at Dallas Cowboys (1-3)
Monday 9.25am NZT
Right. Now it’s at this point that the Cowboys need to start doing the things they were supposed to be doing because they’re an onside kick away from being 0-4 and that is not what Jerry got rid of his best mate Jason Garrett for. I can just imagine him crying in the rain with a gun to Garrett’s head like this hurts me as much as it hurts you kinda thing... man, if the Cowboys lose this week to a team offensively coordinated by none other than JG himself then they might as well just rehire him.
That shouldn’t happen. Not while Dak Prescott is doing this...
He’s currently on pace to break Peyton Manning’s all time passing yardage record WITH THREE WEEKS TO SPARE which is something amazing and concerning all at the same time. He really shouldn’t need to hit those heights just for this team to be 1-3 but every game they’re digging themselves huge holes to have to climb out of. And incredible as Dak is he continually gives them a chance... something that paid off against the Falcons but fell short against the Browns.
Dak Prescott and the passing game is about the only thing running smoothly at the moment though. Ezekiel Elliott looked so good in week one but has been kinda anonymous lately... probably because the big deficits have forced them to abandon the run. He’s actually yet to have a 100 yard rushing game (though he has at least remained a factor in the passing stuff). The less said about special teams the better too, those have been atrocious. Then defensively... this team has an inexperienced secondary which is full of talent, like I’ve been impressed with fellas like Trevon Diggs but as is often the case with inexperienced players they’re not consistent and the amount of big plays they concede is a killer... especially when this team also got ANNIHILATED by the Cleveland rush. Giving up 307 yards on the ground is inexcusable. Jaylen Smith hasn’t been good enough. DeMarcus Lawrence still doesn’t have a sack. Leighton Vander Esch has been a huge loss through injury. And yeah we’re also looking at a team with a new head coach. I wonder if they’d consider bringing in Earl Thomas, who is still a free agent... apparently for good reasons given how many teams have passed on him with ‘locker-room concerns’.
With that rant out of the way, this should be a perfect game to play themselves into some form. The Cowboys simply have far too much firepower for the Giants to hang around. As sloppy as they’ve been to date, the NFC East is the gift that keeps on giving and they could be in a playoff position by the end of this very week. It’s the Giants and Cardinals at home followed by Washington and the Eagles away and there’s every chance the Cowboys are 5-3 by the time they host the Steelers the following week (before their bye).
Surely. This time, surely.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by a furious 18 points
Denver Broncos (1-3) at New England Patriots (2-2)
Monday 9.25am NZT
Remember a few months back when Jarrett Stidham was gonna be the week one starter for the Patriots? Then they ended up with Cam Newton and now they’ll probably be a bloody playoff team but we got a glimpse of what they almost were against the Chiefs and woah boy. Stidham didn’t even start ahead of Brian Hoyer who’d been with the team not even a week I don’t think and he was terrrrrrrible. Hoyer’s better than the dropkick that NFL twitter took him for but the fact that he started on such short preparation ahead of Stidham is not really the best indication of what Belichick thinks about a guy who was almost gonna be his week one starter. The whole situation is strange.
Brian Hoyer took one of the dumbest sacks you’ll ever see in that game. Veteran quarterback and he doesn’t realise the only thing he can’t do there is throw a pick or take a sack. When the play’s not immediately there, you throw it away and kick the field goal. Peep the top left corner of this vid for the coaches’ reaction to the play...
The frightening thing there is that they were only down 6-3 at the half despite all that. The Chiefs did blow it out a little later on two win but a couple spare touchdowns but with quarterback play that bad throughout (remember Stidham threw two picks as well) there’s a fair bit of confidence they can take from that game despite the loss... so long as Cam Newton is coming back. Which it seems like he might be even though it’s been less than two weeks since he got the virus so that’s not really adding up. Stephon Gilmore’s tested positive too even though he’s asymptomatic.
According to ESPN: “He could be cleared to return in five days since his first positive test if he continues not to exhibit any symptoms, has two negative tests 24 hours apart within those five days, and is cleared by the team doctor.”
Wildcard’s Pick: The Broncos don’t have a QB either... Pats by 7
Minnesota Vikings (1-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-0)
Monday 1.20pm NZT
I’ll get this out of the way early because the Seahawks have been superb, Russell Wilson is out of his damn mind, and I’m 100% picking them without even having to think about it. But despite all the messiness going on with the Vikings (they won last week, fair play, not to stick the knife in here but them beating the Texans forced them to sack their coach)... Dalvin Cook has been so much fun. He’s looking amazing. Busting tackles and scoring touchdowns. The man.
Not to mention the continuing excellence of Adam Thielen and the emerging abilities of rookie WR Justin Jefferson... even Kirk Cousins can look good with that kind of support. But let’s remain realistic given what they’re up against this week... that Minny defence is getting absolutely torched here.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 16
Los Angeles Chargers (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-2)
Tuesday 1.15pm NZT
It’s the right call, Herbert’s the future of the franchise and he’s shown plenty of immediate impact... seemingly at his best under pressure or on third down too which is a great sign.
But all the same: Free Tyrod.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 6
BYE: Detroit Lions (1-3) & Green Bay Packers (4-0)
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